Look at the "72 changes" of the feed industry in 2015

After the painful period of 2014, 2015 became a key year for the feed industry to enter the transition period. Throughout the entire industrial chain: raw materials-feed-farming, this series of links has suffered a painful blow in the past year. Since the beginning of the year, the industry does not seem to have bottomed out. The prices of corn and soybean meal, the two most important raw materials in the bulk market, continued to fall, although the temporary reserve purchase policy supported the northeast corn slightly, and the overall market in the sales area was bleak; not to mention the soybean meal market, prices fell again and again. Feed market production and marketing is also unsatisfactory, should appear in the fourth quarter of the sales season has not arrived. What about farming? Low season can also be described. Pig sales light, epidemic accelerated farmers out, prices continued to fall. Can the raw material, feed and livestock breeding market come out of the downturn in 2015? Nongbo feed editor thinks the answer is yes.

feed industry

2015 feed raw material market has a turnaround

Domestic soybean meal prices have continued to fall since the beginning of November last year; leading factors: 1. Imported soybeans continue to arrive in Hong Kong, and supply is loose. 2. Low consumption demand and oil plant sales losses. Although the market did not usher in large-scale replenishment before the Spring Festival, a small amount of feed was collected near the holiday feed factory, and the oil factory began to settle the early contract and transfer the warehouse price, resulting in obvious improvement of soybean meal shipment in recent two days; at present, the domestic soybean meal price operation range is 2800-2950 yuan/ton. After the holiday, soybean arrivals will be greatly reduced. Due to the US bean washing event in the early stage, the soybean arrival volume in February is expected to be about 4 million tons. After the festival, the market supply may be tight for a period of time, and the price may also have a moderate rebound. At the beginning of the South American soybean market in March, domestic or cheap South American soybeans will be selected, and South American transportation logistics in the second quarter will become a major variable in market operation. If logistics problems strike again, domestic supply will face a gap in the first half of the year, and soybean meal prices are expected to rebound sharply.

In the second half of the year, the focus of the market shifted to US soybeans and domestic farming. We put the analysis of domestic breeding in the back, looking at the situation of soybeans in the United States alone. At present, US soybean prices are running at a low level, hoping for the next year's market situation. 6-9 September, the United States soybean growing season weather speculation gradually spread out, according to the law of previous years, this is the season when the United States beans are easy to rise, but also the period when domestic soybean meal prices rise. According to historical rules, soybean meal in the fourth quarter may open the downward channel again, but Nongbo feed editor thinks the decline will be less than 2014.

On the whole, there is a turnaround in the soybean meal market in 2015; according to the above analysis, the second and third quarters are the key time periods for soybean meal price rebound.

Feed production and marketing situation is expected to improve in 2015

In 2014, the national feed output decreased, mainly due to the impact of severe downstream breeding situation on feed consumption demand. Xiao Bian predicts that there is a high probability of a small increase in feed production in 2015. Judging from the relatively large pig feed, the stock of live pigs and breeding sows in 2014 is low, and it is expected that the stock level will not be too high until the first half of 2015, but there will be a relative upward trend. The highlight of development is in the second half of the year. With the improvement of the enthusiasm of farmers, there will be a peak point in the pig stock in the second half of the year, and the overall stock level of the whole year is higher than that of last year. The demand for pig feed is also directly reflected in the pig stock, feed consumption will be greatly increased compared with last year. On the premise of no major epidemic, poultry feed demand is expected to recover. And aquatic products hope for this year's weather, if "the weather is beautiful", production growth will also become a high probability event.

According to the production situation of enterprises, with the acceleration of industry integration, small and medium-sized feed enterprises are facing elimination crisis, and the number of feed enterprises in China continues to decrease; according to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 2014, the number of enterprises that have obtained feed production licenses nationwide is 7061, which is about 3000 fewer than that at the end of 2013. This development trend has a certain impact on China's feed output, but in the long run it is an effective kinetic energy for speeding up the development of the industry. Although the number of feed enterprises is reduced, it is concentrated in the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises, while large and medium-sized feed enterprises will extend the industrial chain, concentrate on increasing production capacity and strengthen industry integration, which is beneficial to the total production and marketing of feed in China without harm.

Overall, China's feed production in 2015 or will appear a certain range of growth. For feed enterprises, 2015 will be a year of opportunities and challenges.

The development of aquaculture will be highlighted in the second half of the year

In 2014, the overall performance of animal husbandry and feed industry was poor, and the root cause was the bleak situation of pig breeding industry. "A stone stirs up thousands of waves", the pig market is this stone; pig price is low-farmers are out-stock is low-feed production and sales are poor-raw material demand is poor-raw material prices fall; through these links, we can intuitively see the downturn process of the overall market last year. Causes of pig market malaise: 1. Changes in diet structure. 2. Three public consumption restrictions. 3. Overcapacity.

Can the pig market reverse in 2015? Xiao Bian believes that according to the price operation law, the 15-year pig market is obviously better than last year. First of all, from the perspective of farmers, with the intensification and scale of breeding industry, small and medium-sized free-range farmers gradually withdraw from the market, and the production capacity fluctuation and price fluctuation of pig industry will be more stable. Secondly, from the perspective of pig production capacity, in December 2014, the stock of live pigs was about 420 million, and the stock of breeding sows had fallen below the level of 43 million; the stock of breeding sows decreased, resulting in the situation of oversupply of live pigs will gradually ease. It is expected that the price of live pigs is expected to stabilize from April to May, and the probability of gradual rise of the market in the later period is relatively high, and the chance of large increase in the whole year is more likely to appear in the second and third quarters. However, whether it is the change of breeding quantity or price, the highlight of breeding industry development is in the second half of the year.