What do you think of more than half of the chemical fertilizer storage industry?

The period from October of each year to March of the following year is the period of low storage of chemical fertilizer. in terms of time, most of the process of light storage of chemical fertilizer has passed, so what is the situation of light storage of chemical fertilizer this year? What kind of problem is there? What do chemical fertilizer and related enterprises and industry experts think of this? The author has recently conducted a survey and understanding.

Dealers are cautious

One dealer told me that on the whole, dealers are cautious about light storage this year. Among them, dealers in Northeast and Southwest regions are more enthusiastic about light storage, while dealers in Central China, North China and other regions are more insipid.

The high enthusiasm of dealers in Northeast China is mainly due to the fact that Northeast China is an important grain production base in China. The operating rate of chemical fertilizer manufacturers in Northeast China is relatively high, and when the operating rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers is high, it reaches about 90%. Due to the large number of mixed fertilizer manufacturers in Northeast China and the great demand for large granular urea, the price of large granular urea increased by more than 100 yuan per ton in the early stage. In addition, the southwest region is mainly gas fertilizer manufacturers, because they are worried about rising natural gas prices and limited supply, manufacturers reduce the starting load, so some dealers prepare fertilizer in advance, making the region's light reserves slightly better.

However, the situation of light storage in Central China and North China is relatively mediocre. In some places, the light reserves this year are less than half of those in the same period in previous years, and some dealers prefer to leave their warehouses there rather than keep them light, while others do not store them any more because they have bought a little stock.

When talking about why dealers are so cautious about light storage, Chen Li, director of the China Fertilizer Information Center, analyzed: "there are mainly the following reasons: first, in previous years, light storage did not make money, and even the price in the peak season was lower than that in the off-season. Make some dealers discouraged by light storage. Second, the output of chemical fertilizer is very large now, even if we do not take the goods in the off-season, it is not too late to pick up the goods in the peak season, so we do not have to worry about the lack of goods available in the peak season, so we are not in a hurry to prepare fertilizer in advance; third, the price of agricultural products is not high this year, which not only leads to a decline in farmers' purchasing power of chemical fertilizer, but also leads to the failure of timely recovery of dealer loans sold on credit to farmers, and is unable to continue to make light storage. Fourth, the speed of land transfer is accelerated, and in the future, chemical fertilizer manufacturers may directly supply large agricultural households, and the market left to grass-roots dealers is getting smaller and smaller, and some agricultural dealers are considering whether or not to change careers, so they will not make light reserves; fifth, the sharp drop in international oil prices has caused a psychological impact on some people, believing that chemical fertilizer prices should also fall. "

For dealers, they can also store and sell at the same time to reduce the risk of light storage. Chen Jiliang, general manager of Guangzhou Longlin Agricultural material Co., Ltd., said: "with the increase in the planting area of cash crops, the off-peak season of chemical fertilizer is not as obvious as it used to be. even in the so-called off-season, farmers actually use fertilizer just as much as in the peak season. In addition, chemical fertilizer is not only used in agriculture, but also for industrial use, such as urea, and as an industrial fertilizer is used all the year round, let alone in the off-peak season. Dealers should find these needs more, do not have to store chemical fertilizer to spring ploughing fertilizer peak season and then sell, in the off-season while storing while selling, can effectively reduce the risk of light storage. " Production enterprises look forward to business opportunities

In the face of dealers' doubts and caution about light storage, chemical fertilizer manufacturers still expect that light storage can become a good opportunity for product sales.

"We believe that light storage is still a business opportunity for manufacturers and distributors. Through meetings and exchanges, inviting dealers to visit manufacturers and other forms, we analyze the current situation and future trend of the chemical fertilizer market for dealers, give them encouragement, build up confidence, and let dealers dare to store and store boldly. " A person in charge of a chemical fertilizer production enterprise said.

It is understood that many chemical fertilizer enterprises are actively looking for ways to turn passivity into initiative and reverse the unfavorable situation. Among them, the most important approach is to co-sell with the dealer Fed, manufacturers produce products, dealers out of the warehouse, give play to their respective advantages to engage in light storage hand in hand, benefit sharing, risk sharing. Many compound fertilizer manufacturers further guarantee the bottom and calculate the interest to the dealers, so that they are risk-free. In order to seize the light storage market, some compound fertilizer manufacturers deliver and store goods in the old customer warehouse, customers only need to pay half of the payment, and implement a guarantee, which is more attractive to dealers.

"recently, dealers and retailers are more active in preparing fertilizer than in the previous period, because enterprises provide training and market risk analysis for dealers, and dealers are paying attention to national policies during this period. Market enthusiasm has increased to a certain extent, including changes in new policies such as resource tax, value-added tax and export tariffs." Tian Bin, deputy general manager of Sichuan Golden Elephant Seri Company, said.

Enterprises such as Shandong Kim Jong Da have taken a different approach and increased the light storage of new fertilizers.

"now the competition in the ordinary fertilizer market is fierce, the price transparency is high, it is more difficult to make money, and the enthusiasm of dealers is not very high. However, the new fertilizer is environmentally friendly and efficient, and the fertilizer utilization efficiency is high, which is in line with the development trend. at the same time, because of the high technical content, relatively few manufacturers, lower market competitiveness than ordinary fertilizers, and larger profit margins for dealers, this is also attractive to dealers. " The person in charge of the relevant enterprise said.

The power of light storage still exists at the end of the year.

At present, it has entered the last stage of chemical fertilizer light storage, and some people in the industry believe that the nitrogen fertilizer market is more likely to pick up during spring ploughing, and phosphate and compound fertilizer will maintain a steady and good trend. There is little risk of fertilizer light storage this year, and dealers can make use of the last opportunity to carry out appropriate light storage.

Su Jianying, director of the Information and Marketing Department of China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, analyzed the relationship between supply and demand of urea during spring ploughing with data: in 2014, the increase in urea production in China was the same as that of withdrawing capacity, and the total production capacity remained at about 80.7 million tons; urea production decreased by about 1 million tons compared with the previous year, but exports increased significantly, resulting in a decrease of 6.23 million tons in domestic urea resources in 2014 compared with the same period last year. If the monthly export of 1 million tons of urea is calculated, the amount of urea resources from January to April 2015 is expected to be 4 million tons less than that of the previous year. She suggested: "in order to prevent a shortage of domestic supply, all production enterprises should give priority to sending goods to domestic sales to effectively ensure the supply of chemical fertilizer for spring ploughing."

Dai limin, manager of Hunan Xiangfeng Fertilizer Company, said that at present, light storage has three advantages: first, prices are low in recent years; second, grass-roots stocks are insufficient, and farmers' demand for chemical fertilizer is basically rigid, so there is a gap in the market; third, the global fertilizer market is expected to heat up moderately this year. Some analysts believe that nitrogen fertilizer prices will begin to rise again in the spring sowing season, with an increase expected to be $40 to $50 per ton; world phosphate fertilizer prices are not expected to increase too much this spring, with an increase of $35 to $50 per ton; at present, potash prices have begun to bottom out and are expected to maintain a low upward trend.

On the question of whether a sharp drop in international oil prices will drive fertilizer prices down, a dealer in Jiangsu expressed his views. He said that when he first entered the agricultural industry to sell chemical fertilizer, the price of urea was more than 1900 yuan per ton. at that time, the international oil price was more than 20 US dollars per barrel, although the international oil price plummeted after the second half of last year and now it is more than 40 US dollars per barrel. Now the price of urea per ton is only more than 1500 yuan, which shows that the oil price and fertilizer price are not absolutely related. The vast majority of urea in the world uses natural gas as raw material, and most of the urea produced in China uses coal as raw material. Coal and natural gas are the key factors that affect the price of urea, but neither of them can see the reason to continue to fall sharply. The dealer said he had made some light reserves and was not too pessimistic about the future of fertiliser.