Pay attention to the new changes in grain import structure

Under the influence of domestic and foreign prices upside down and demand pull, China's grain (grain) imports continued to grow rapidly in 2014, with imports reaching 19.516 million tons, an increase of 33.8 percent over the same period last year, and net imports of 18.747 million tons, an increase of 40 percent over the same period last year. At the same time, the grain import structure has two new characteristics: the total import of three staple grains has decreased, and the import of corn substitutes has increased significantly, which is worth tracking and analyzing.

The total import volume of the three staple grains has decreased significantly, and we should continue to play a positive role in import and export regulation and control. In 2014, the total imports of wheat, rice and corn three staple grains totaled 8.184 million tons, down 26.1 percent from the same period last year. After maintaining more than 11 million tons for two consecutive years, there was a sharp decline, to a certain extent, alleviating the contradiction of high domestic grain stocks and periodic supply pressure. In terms of varieties, wheat imports were 3.004 million tons, down 45.7 percent from the same period last year; corn imports were 2.599 million tons, down 20.4 percent from the same period last year; and rice imports were 2.579 million tons, up 13.6 percent from the same period last year, but the growth rate was lower than that in 2011-2012. According to the analysis of experts, under the condition that the domestic price is obviously higher than the import-to-shore tax price, the total import volume of the three staple grains has declined, although there are reasons for the "11th consecutive increase" in China's grain output and improvement in quality. however, it is more the result of import and export regulation and control, especially the effective management of import quotas, indicating that there is still some room for flexibility in China's grain import and export regulation and control measures. Under the current situation that China's economic growth is slowing down and grain demand is weak, we should continue to take the initiative to play the card of trade regulation and control within the scope of WTO rules, optimize the use of quota management and other tools, so as to strive for valuable time and space for stabilizing grain income, adjusting structure, improving quality and efficiency, and ensuring "basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of food rations" under the new normal.

With the substantial increase in the import of corn substitute products, we should speed up the improvement of price and market regulation mechanism. Although the total imports of the three staple grains decreased in 2014, imports of corn substitutes such as sorghum and barley doubled, resulting in an increase in total grain imports and significant changes in grain structure. Of this total, barley imports were 5.413 million tons, an increase of 131.8 percent over the same period last year, and sorghum imports were 5.776 million tons, an increase of 4.4 times over the same period last year.

Traditionally, China's imports of barley and sorghum are mainly used for wine making, and the total import volume is stable at about 3 million tons, but imports soared to more than 11 million tons in 2014, and the new imports are mainly used to replace corn as feed. According to the investigation of Guangdong feed enterprises, the average price of domestic corn to Huangpu Port in Guangzhou in 2014 is about 2500 yuan per ton, which is significantly higher than that of imported sorghum and barley (about 1700 yuan and 1850 yuan respectively). In addition, there is no quota management for the import of sorghum and barley, and the tariff is only 2% and 3%. Feed enterprises are driven by the huge price difference to replace corn with imported sorghum and barley. Among them, the proportion of sorghum replacing corn in poultry feed varies from 20% to 60%, and that of barley instead of corn in fattening pig feed is about 8% and 10%. At the same time, corn distiller's grains (DDGs) imported 5.42 million tons (up 35.3% over the same period last year) and potatoes (mainly dry cassava) imported 8.67 million tons (18.4% year-on-year), adding up to more than 14 million tons, partly replacing the demand for deep processing of corn. According to preliminary estimates by experts, the substantial increase in imports of corn substitutes in 2014 led to at least 10 million tons of domestic corn stocks added. If major exporters such as Australia (accounting for 71.6% of China's total barley imports in 2014) and the United States (accounting for 93.8% of China's total sorghum imports in 2014), imports of alternative products for sorghum and barley will further increase, aggravating the pressure on China's corn storage capacity.

The new change of the rapid increase of corn substitute products shows that the management of grain import and export in China is a systematic work, and it is inevitable to "press the gourd and float the ladle" if there is a lack of supporting measures. Therefore, for corn with a relatively long industrial chain, while studying the import control measures of alternative products, we should speed up the improvement of price and market regulation mechanism, under the premise of ensuring that it is not "difficult to sell grain" and stabilize farmers' income from growing grain, form a reasonable price comparison relationship between domestic corn and alternative products, promote corn processing and consumption, and prevent corn market space from being squeezed.