Soybean meal temporarily stabilizes to good aquaculture industry has not substantially improved

Recently, driven by factors such as the stock preparation of feed enterprises and the decline in the opening rate of oil plants, soybean meal showed a moderate upward trend. In addition, the import of soybeans to Hong Kong is lower than the level of the same period last year, which may lead to a periodic shortage of raw materials in some oil plants after the festival, and the circulation of soybean meal market is short-term or tight. In view of this, soybean meal is still mainly a mild rebound in the short term.

The arrival of soybeans is on the low side.

Data show that soybean arrivals from February to March are generally low, with a total of about 8 million tons, significantly lower than the level of the same period last year. Due to the relative reduction of soybean supply, there may be a periodic shortage of raw materials in some oil factories after the festival, and the circulation of soybean meal market may be tight.

Overall, the oil sector is still relatively depressed, which makes the oil factory meal policy has not changed. Once there is a periodic shortage of soybean meal, the willingness of oil factories to raise prices will be enhanced. In addition, generally speaking, feed companies will have a wave of stock after the festival, which will, to some extent, help soymeal to rebound moderately.

Feed enterprises actively prepare goods before the festival.

The Spring Festival is approaching, feed enterprises focus on pre-festival replenishment, the stock of soybean meal has significantly increased, most manufacturers prepare goods to the end of this month, a few large feed enterprises even stock to mid-late March. With the passage of time, the oil plant will be shut down one after another for a holiday, and the operating rate of the oil plant is declining. The decline in the opening rate of oil plants means that the supply of soybean meal is relatively reduced, coupled with the pre-holiday stock preparation of feed enterprises, the process of soybean meal destocking in oil plants has been accelerated, the inventory of soybean meal in oil factories has changed from an increase to a slight decline, and the shipping mentality of oil factories is good. The willingness to keep the price is enhanced.

The effective relief of inventory pressure has boosted the spot price of soybean meal. Take Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province as an example, as of February 10, the spot price of soybean meal is 2960 yuan / ton. The improvement in the spot price of soybean meal also boosted futures to a certain extent.

The domestic aquaculture industry has not improved substantially.

At present, the stock preparation of feed enterprises has contributed to a moderate rise in soybean meal prices, but the domestic pig breeding industry has not substantially improved, and the end demand has limited boost to the feed market. Statistics show that the stock of live pigs and breeding sows are at a relatively low level. As of December 2014, the stock of live pigs was 421.57 million, a decrease of 9.92 million compared with 431.49 million in November 2014 and a sharp drop of 35.74 million compared with 457.31 million in the same period in 2013. this means that the demand for feed raw materials in the pig breeding industry will gradually decrease. In addition, the previous value of pig-to-grain ratio is 5.47, which is still below the break-even point, and in the blue observation area of government pig regulation and early warning, which may affect the enthusiasm of making up the fence to a certain extent.

The stock of fertile sows in December 2014 was 42.89 million, a decrease of 790000 from 43.68 million in November 2014 and 6.49 million from 49.38 million in December 2013. To a certain extent, the stock of sows means the ability to put piglets on the market, and the reduction of the stock of sows means that the supply source of pig stock is reduced to some extent. In addition, the current national average price of piglets is 19.22 yuan / kg, and it is still in the downward channel. The oscillatory decline of the national average price of piglets to a large extent confirms the decline of farmers' willingness to fill the fence, so the price of piglets lacks the power to rise. The indicator data of the breeding market is currently running at a relatively low level, which is not conducive to the feed consumption in the breeding market, which is not conducive to promoting the development of feed raw materials.

Overall, the current soybean meal market shows a phased mild rebound. But at the same time, due to the overall good weather in South America, the loose pattern of global supply and demand has not changed, and there is little room for the US bean to rebound. From April to June, South American soybeans will be concentrated on the market, and after South American low-cost soybeans have arrived at domestic ports one after another, the market pressure on soybean meal may be re-magnified, and the rebound of soybean meal this round is limited.