New challenges and New opportunities to see the New urbanization from the Spring Festival Transportation big data

Spring Festival transportation is a unique social phenomenon in the process of urbanization in China, and it is also one of the manifestations of the serious imbalance between the eastern and western regions of China's economic development.

It is easier said than done to escape from "Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou".

From Baidu's migration to big data, taking 17:00 on the 25th (the seventh day of the first lunar month) as an example, the top 10 cities to move to the hottest cities are Beijing (11.04%), Shanghai (7.91%), Shenzhen, Dongguan, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Foshan.

At 17:00 on the 25th, the source provinces that moved to Beijing were Hebei (45.78%), Shandong (9.69%), Henan, Shanxi, Liaoning, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Heilongjiang and Hubei. The source provinces that moved to Shanghai were Jiangsu (29.47%), Anhui (21.79%), Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian and Sichuan. The top ten hottest migration routes are Dezhou → Tianjin, Lu'an → Shanghai, Fuyang → Shanghai, Chaohu → Shanghai, Dezhou → Beijing, Chuzhou → Shanghai, Bengbu → Shanghai, Zhoukou → Beijing, Datong → Beijing, Huanggang → Shenzhen.

It can be seen that Shandong, Shanxi and Henan have become the population hinterland of Beijing and Tianjin, Anhui has become the population hinterland of Shanghai, Hunan and Hubei have become the population hinterland of the Pearl River Delta, and the pattern of the three major urban agglomerations is basically consistent with people's impression. The developed regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are still hot areas for moving out and moving in during the Spring Festival.

Data at 12:00 on the 16th (December 28) before the Spring Festival show that the top 10 hot cities to move out are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Foshan, Chongqing and Ningbo.

Before the Spring Festival, the population moved from big cities to small and medium-sized cities; after the Spring Festival, the population moved from small and medium-sized cities to big cities. During the Spring Festival, the major cities have staged an "empty city plan", but the normally quiet countryside ushered in a rare lively. Hundreds of millions of people move in and out from big cities, reflecting the current situation of "semi-urbanization" in China. The word "half" is more evident in migrant workers: the work to make ends meet is in the city, and the basis of life dependence is in the countryside; half of the family members (husband and wife) are in the city, and the other half (the elderly, underage children) are in the countryside; social insurance is in the city, while medical pension is in the countryside.

It can be seen that although a large number of migrant workers have achieved regional transfer and career transformation, they have not yet achieved the change of identity and status. Hundreds of millions of people living in cities and towns do not have urban hukou and enjoy the treatment of urban residents. and these non-registered residents have become the main force of the Spring Festival passenger flow.

It is fashionable to work for a short distance.

On the real-time map of Baidu migration, everyone's transfer will be clearly reflected in the dense lines.

It is worth noting that the number of short lines connecting Chongqing, Xianyang, Chengdu, Guiyang and other western cities has increased a lot. Take Chongqing as an example, Luzhou, Zigong, Nanchong, Suining, Neijiang, Ziyang and other places have a relatively dense migration to Chongqing; if you look at Xi'an, the connection lines between Xianyang, Shangluo, Weinan, Baoji and other places to Xi'an are very dense, reflecting the frequent trips to and from Xi'an.

Xu Chengguang, spokesman for the Ministry of Transport, analyzed that there has been a marked increase in short-and medium-distance passenger flow during the Spring Festival this year. As the country accelerates the adjustment of industrial structure and the continuous promotion of the strategy of coordinated regional economic development, the economic development of inland provinces is accelerating, the attractiveness of employment is obviously improved, and it is becoming increasingly common for migrant workers to work nearby. the flow of migrant workers between inland cities and neighboring areas has increased significantly.

Guangdong topped the list of destination provinces from Hunan with a share of 61.58 per cent, according to data from 17:00 on Baidu Migration Map on the 25th. For Henan, a populous province, Jiangsu, Beijing and Anhui have become the three most visited destination provinces. For Anhui, the number of people who have moved to Jiangsu and Shanghai is close to 60% of the total emigrated population of Anhui. Thus it can be seen that for these major provinces of migrant workers, it has become a major trend to work nearby.

The Spring Festival Transportation report of Alipay users released by Alipay last year also confirmed this characteristic. "peacocks no longer blindly fly to the southeast", and short-distance migration has become a fashion. After synthesizing big data across the country, the report concluded that the most concentrated users of Alipay were 200,000,800 kilometers away from home. This shows that in recent years, with the gradient transfer of coastal industries to the central and western regions and the rise of a number of regional economic centers in the eastern, central and western regions, the trend of a new generation of migrant workers has begun to appear.

Relevant experts also pointed out that in addition to the three major urban agglomerations that have already been formed, there should be more urban agglomerations in central and western China, with the central part being the "middle triangle" of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Anhui, and the western part being the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, which will change China's economic map. In accordance with the plan of the country's new urbanization, the focus is to solve the problem of "three 100 million people", promote the settlement of about 100 million agricultural migrants in cities and towns, transform urban shantytowns and urban villages where about 100 million people live, and guide about 100 million people to urbanization nearby in the central and western regions. Employment nearby will undoubtedly become an important factor in alleviating the difficulties of Spring Festival transportation.

Reverse migration reflects new demand

It is a traditional custom to go back to your hometown for reunion with your parents during the Spring Festival. However, with the increase of remote employment, cross-regional marriage and single families, many elderly people come from their hometown to cities where their children work and settle for the Spring Festival, and "reverse migration" has brought new demand. Xu Tao, who is from Anhui province, made his home in Beijing five years ago. When New Year's Day this year, he took his parents from his hometown to Beijing during his holidays, and the whole family spent the Spring Festival together in Beijing. "just in time for the Spring Festival holiday, I can also accompany my parents to have a good stroll in Beijing." Xu Tao said.

Of the 10 cities that moved out of Shijiazhuang, Beijing topped the list with 12.99 percent, 8.59 percent higher than the second, according to real-time data from 12:00 on the 17th (December 29). Hebei is adjacent to Beijing, and among the people who go to Beijing before the Spring Festival, there is no shortage of parents who go to Beijing in reverse.

In addition, more and more people choose to leave their hometown and travel for the Spring Festival, reflecting the new direction of population migration during the Spring Festival. Data from 12:00 on the 19th (the first day of the first lunar month) show that among the top 10 source cities to Sanya, Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang are among the three major cities in the northeast, with Beijing at the top of the list. At the same time, Guangzhou ranked among the ten major cities that moved to Harbin.

In the Spring Festival, the biggest passenger flow is the "flow of migrant workers". According to the National Development and Reform Commission, among the 260 million migrant workers in 2015, 160 million migrant workers will move across provinces. Relevant experts pointed out that to better promote the new type of urbanization and speed up the adjustment of regional structure and industrial structure is undoubtedly the key to solve the difficulties of "Spring Festival transportation."