Expect the new normal to give birth to new agriculture.

The "11 consecutive increases" in grain output and the "11 consecutive rapid" growth in farmers' income have become new achievements in the field of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" in the past year. People expect this "sentence pattern" to continue to be used in the coming year and become the norm.

This expectation is in line with general understanding. As the "top priority" of the work of the whole party, the issue of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" has been repeatedly and continuously emphasized. The No. 1 document of the CPC Central Committee has been involved in agriculture for 12 consecutive years, and this degree of attention has exceeded that of any other period in history. "farming does not pay taxes, but also receives subsidies, and new subsidy programs continue to emerge." the enthusiasm of grain production has been stimulated. In particular, subsidies and incentives for large grain growers have prompted a large number of flexible-minded experts across the country who can eat "policy food" to begin to transfer and centralize scattered land from the hands of farmers. in some places, land transfer is also used as a project to attract social capital and personnel to attract investment, so that a large number of abandoned land can be cultivated again. This booming scene of grain production, along with the continuous increase of grain output and farmers' income, can be clearly seen that its trajectory is consistent with the guidance of document No. 1 for more than a decade.

However, the release of any policy effect is not unlimited. In terms of the effect of China's agricultural support policy, the situation is also changing. The first is the diminishing marginal effect of policy. The direct subsidy of tens of yuan per mu of grain has gradually lost its policy attractiveness, because it is far less affordable than the rise in the wages of migrant workers, while the expenditure on employment in rural areas is not much different from that in cities, and it is very difficult to hire workers in rural areas. because almost all the young and middle-aged workers have gone out. In this way, it has been difficult to produce greater incentives to maintain the previous subsidy standards. In particular, at present, the prices of many domestic agricultural products are inverted with the international market, and it is difficult to maintain competitiveness only by government-supported market acquisitions. Not long ago, dairy farming encountered tremendous competitive pressure from dairy products in the free trade zone, and the "milk pour incident" was staged in many parts of the country. This is the "two-board effect" commonly mentioned by experts, that is, the "floor" of domestic agricultural production costs is gradually raised and the price increases of major domestic agricultural products encounter the "ceiling". Under the double pressure of cost and price, it is not a small problem for agricultural production to improve market competitiveness and achieve sustainable production under the support and protection policy, and it is also a major test that China's modern agricultural development must face.

Secondly, the dependence effect on policy incentives and the destructive effect across the policy boundary coexist. Due to the long-term policy subsidies, some grain production behaviors are maintained in the form of "large households" in land transfer, and some are even maintained through the destruction of the environment and ecology. For example, the large-scale reclamation of land around lakes in some places in recent years is an alternative interpretation of "dragging by water" stimulated by the huge difference between the subsidy standards of reclamation policies and ordinary retail investors. this is a kind of "collusion between government and business" under the distorted performance view of the grassroots, and its damage to the ecological environment is like the great steel-making in the era of the Great Leap forward. This destructive development behavior can not form a sustained "healthy production capacity", but may be "harmful production capacity" with a poor prognosis.

In addition, the shortage of agricultural resources, especially the shortage of water resources, will seriously restrict agricultural production. The excessive exploitation of groundwater has formed an underground funnel in many areas. There are more than 200,000 square kilometers of underground funnel area in the North China Plain, which has many hidden dangers in agricultural production. In addition, farmland in many areas has been seriously polluted, and the withdrawal of "toxic capacity" and the long cycle of land treatment will directly restrict the growth of grain production, and it is indeed very difficult to expect "continuous increase".

China's economy has entered a new normal. After the transformation from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth, profound changes have taken place in the international and domestic environment, and agricultural development has also entered a new stage. From a rational point of view, we should not blindly pursue the continuous increase of grain output, but should pay more attention to how to strengthen agriculture. As soon as possible, we should shift from the extensive operation of mainly pursuing output and relying on resource consumption to paying equal attention to quantity and quality, improving competitiveness, paying attention to innovation in agricultural science and technology, and paying attention to sustainable intensive development. take the road of modern agricultural development with high output efficiency, product safety, resource saving and environment-friendly. This is not only the result of environmental pressure, but also the inherent law of agricultural development.

"if China wants to be strong, agriculture must be strong" is the important spirit of this year's No. 1 document. Powerful agriculture must be armed with modern mode of operation, modern science and technology, modern management means and modern material and equipment conditions. It is a modern agriculture that integrates marketization, scientization, organization, facilities, mechanization, intensification, informationization, and socialization. Agricultural modernization is not only the foundation and "key variable" of the modernization of the whole country, but also the deficiency of building a well-off society in an all-round way. Therefore, with a broader vision and more decisive and effective measures, we must co-ordinate the integrated development of agricultural modernization and secondary and tertiary industries, and highlight the basic role of modern agriculture in the overall economic and social development; unify food security and food safety, and pay more attention to food safety. In the acceleration of urbanization, we should stick to the red line of cultivated land, set up the thinking that land storage is higher than grain storage, and strive to seek the organic unity of "strong agriculture", "rich farmers" and "rural beauty" in the development of modern high-efficiency agriculture. The realization of this goal is the new agriculture bred by the new normal. Among the policy support tools, improving the orientation and effectiveness of agricultural subsidy policy is an important direction, and the systematic evaluation of agricultural support policy is a necessary and urgent task.