Two Weaknesses of Chinese Agriculture Should Be Solved as Soon as Possible

The introduction of the No. 1 document of the Central Committee points out some major trend problems facing China's agriculture in the future. Among them, I think there are two aspects that deserve the most attention: first, the cost of domestic agricultural production is rising rapidly, and the prices of major agricultural products are generally higher than those in the international market. How to innovate agricultural support and protection policies and improve agricultural competitiveness under the "double squeeze" is a major test that must be faced. Second, due to the shortage of agricultural resources, excessive development and aggravated pollution, how to ensure the effective supply, quality and safety of agricultural products and improve the ability of agricultural sustainable development under the hard constraints of resources and environment is a major challenge that must be addressed.

This major test and challenge appropriately points out the "two major weaknesses" of China's agriculture, both of which are fatal weaknesses.

First, let's take a look at the cost of agriculture. China's grain production has not been rid of the shortage. According to statistics, China now imports 80 million tons of crops every year, of which 3/4 are soybeans. The reason for importing such a large amount of soybeans, this is not just a gap problem, the key lies in the price. As a low-yield crop (one crop a year), the cost of growing soybeans in China is too high. Just imagine, if we allow the cost of all major agricultural products to remain high for a long time, and the market price is higher than the international market for a long time, the result may be the total annihilation of Chinese agriculture and the outbreak of food security problems in China.

There is also "shortage of agricultural resources, over-development and aggravation of pollution". Even if we can be self-sufficient in grain, if all grain is contaminated, it is not only a health problem for ordinary people, but also indicates that China's grain market will be taken away by foreign food that is "pollution-free" or "less pollution". It is also an issue of China's food security.

It is a basic fact that China is using 7% of the world's arable land to feed 22% of the world's population. Therefore, there is no such thing as "fallow" in China's cultivated land, and we must rely on a large amount of chemical fertilizer to grow crops in two or three seasons a year in order to provide food for the Chinese people. But the question is, can the land withstand such overuse? In some developed countries, such as the United States, they use government subsidies to force farmers to "fallow their land." every year, 2% to 10% of the land is in a state of rest.

In 2025, China's population will reach a peak of 1.4 billion, and the problems of land and food will become more prominent. Even if China's population will decline after its peak, the rising global population will compete with China for food supplies. These are the big agricultural problems facing China.

Some scholars believe that there is still room for 15% growth in China's grain production. This growth can barely maintain the "tight balance" of China's grain supply. But I think it's just a hypothesis. As long as the above-mentioned "two major weaknesses" are not properly resolved, the impact of overseas grain on the Chinese market will be inevitable. Once the impact is formed, not to mention the increment, there will be a big question mark over whether the stock production can be maintained.

Therefore, I think that reducing the cost of agricultural production and the pollution control of water and land should be the top priority of the government's work, and it Brooks no delay. At present, the solution given by the central government is: first, to accelerate reform, and second, to rely on science and technology. In my opinion, what is very important is science and technology, which must achieve an improvement in efficiency, and the increase is far greater than the increase in cost. At the same time, it is necessary to turn saline-alkali land and mountainous areas that could not grow grain into arable land. Of course, the premise is that it does not destroy the ecology.

The task of China's agriculture is too heavy, and now it is very difficult to govern. We must beware of a problem. When our science and technology are not so efficient and not enough to cover costs, our agriculture has been washed out by the market. I am afraid this is the danger we need to guard against most at present.