There is great supply pressure and the trend of agricultural products is divided.

Since March, the agricultural product index has fallen all the way, to nearly two trading days stabilized and recovered. In addition to corn, corn starch futures due to storage factors rose one after another, beans, meal, soft commodities cotton, white sugar, etc. without exception, there have been successive declines, but in recent days began to show signs of stabilization. Recently, relevant sources said that at present, the price difference between domestic and foreign bulk agricultural products continues to widen, which is conducive to imports and unfavorable to exports, while the tight storage capacity of domestic grain has become an important factor in suppressing the price of domestic agricultural products.

Agricultural prices face supply-side pressure

The recently published Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development in 2014 shows that China's grain harvest in 2014 will be re-harvested, achieving "eleven consecutive increases". The annual grain output was 607.1 million tons, an increase of 5.16 million tons or 0.9 percent over the previous year.

Driven by the wide gap between domestic and foreign agricultural products and the pressure of successive high yields in China, the import of domestic agricultural products increases, sales are difficult, a large number of agricultural goods enter the national reserve system, and the change of inventory has also become an important factor affecting the current agricultural product price.

Industry insiders believe that China should limit its annual grain imports to no more than 11 million tons, which is about 43% lower than the import scale of 19.3 million tons in 2014.

In this situation, the soybean, oil and raw sugar markets closely linked to the international market have attracted much attention. At present, the main problems faced by this kind of market are that the soybean market is highly open, the domestic soybean planting efficiency is low, the soybean planting area is decreasing continuously; the sugar import price is too low, the price continues to fall, resulting in the overall loss of sugar enterprises and the decrease of sugarcane farmers 'income. Is there hope that this situation will improve in 2015?

Disk display, into March, beans market appeared in varying degrees of continuous decline. Zhao Yan, research director of Agricultural Products Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, said that after March, with the gradual easing of the impact of Brazilian strike activities, CBOT bean prices fluctuated again and led domestic beans to fall back. At the same time, macro negative factors such as the continuous rise of the US dollar and the weakness of crude oil also suppressed domestic and foreign markets. After the domestic bean market rebound with the plate market also temporarily came to an end.

On the evening of March 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a monthly supply and demand report for March that was neutral and empty, reconfirming the loose pattern of soybean supply in the United States and around the world.

For the recent consolidation of the oil market, Founder mid-term researcher Yang Lina believes that the US Department of Agriculture supply and demand report and Malaysia monthly production and sales data have disappointed the market, coupled with a strong rebound in the US dollar, crude oil fall, it is difficult to form strong support for the continuous decline of oil.

Beans Down

For agricultural products after the market, analysts pointed out that it is also necessary to pay close attention to domestic and foreign market trends. Yang Lina said that the focus of the later bean market may need to turn to the forecast of the new season planting area of US beans, logistics and listing in South America, recovery of palm oil production in Malaysia and improvement in demand. "If the terminal demand for oil does not improve substantially, the demand change cannot be reflected compared with the meal, and the trend of low finishing of soybean palm oil is difficult to change substantially."”

Lu Zheng futures agricultural products researcher Li Zhenqiang also pointed out that at present the international market stocks of the United States, Brazil, Argentina are at a high level, and domestic demand is obvious to all, the future will still be weak, the overall supply and demand pattern has not changed, the market will continue to be empty logic.

"With abundant global supply, domestic and foreign market pressures will be fully reflected again as South American record soybean production is concentrated after April." Zhao Yan said.