Grasp the trend changes of agricultural development under the new normal

Economic development has entered a new normal, which has a profound impact on the development of various industries, including agriculture. At the same time, the trend change of agriculture itself is also an important part of economic development. At present, we must accurately grasp the trend changes of agricultural development, adapt to and lead the new normal of economic development.

The demand structure has changed. One of the basic characteristics of the new normal of economic development is that consumer demand has changed and personalized and diversified consumption has gradually become the mainstream. The importance of ensuring product quality and safety and activating demand through innovative supply has increased significantly. From the perspective of agriculture, the changes in demand structure can be summarized into two major aspects: first, from the perspective of variety structure, urban and rural residents' consumption of grain products such as rice and wheat is relatively stable. there is an increasingly strong demand for products with high added value, such as meat, aquatic products, fruits and dairy products. Second, from the perspective of quality level, consumers with different income levels show a differentiated and stratified demand for agricultural products, but on the whole, the requirements for the quality and safety of agricultural products are getting higher and higher. The demand for agricultural products of Chinese residents has gone beyond the stage of meeting the demand for quantity and entered a new period of attaching equal importance to quantity, quality and safety.

The mode of supply has changed. In the past, the supply of agricultural products focused more on the domestic market and domestic resources, and grain, cotton, oil and sugar, animal husbandry and aquatic products all required self-sufficiency as high as possible. Since China's accession to the WTO the supply mode of relying on both international and domestic markets and resources has become increasingly obvious and the number of imported agricultural products has increased significantly. It is estimated that through international trade and cooperation, China has made use of 600 million mu of arable land in the world to produce grain, soybeans, cotton, sugar and other crops. While adhering to the absolute safety of food rations and basically solving the food problem at home, appropriately expanding the import of domestic scarce agricultural products and speeding up the pace of "going out" of agriculture, and meeting the demand for agricultural products through self-sufficiency and appropriate imports, it has become the basic mode and pattern of the supply of agricultural products at present and for a period in the future.

The resource function has changed. For quite a long time in the past, cultivated land, water and other natural resources were more used to meet the production of agricultural products, and the supply of agricultural products mainly depended on resource input, which caused great pressure on resources and ecological environment. We use 10% of the world's arable land and 6% of the world's fresh water to feed 20% of the world's population, provide 25% of the world's food, and use 40% of the world's chemical fertilizers. The use of pesticides per unit area is 2.5 times the world average. In recent years, the concept of ecological civilization is increasingly rooted in the hearts of the people. Agriculture should not only undertake the function of product supply, but also achieve resource conservation and environmental friendliness in the production process, but also expand a variety of functions such as ecological environmental protection, tourism, leisure and cultural heritage.

The mode of operation has changed. The mode of agricultural operation is shown in two aspects: agricultural production and the circulation of agricultural products, which involves not only productive forces, but also production relations. From the perspective of agricultural production, in the past, the main body of agricultural production was 230 million contracted farmers, which was mainly represented by small-scale decentralized operation; now the development of new business entities is in the ascendant, and they are jointly engaged in agricultural production and services with decentralized contracted farmers. the degree of commercialization, scale, intensification, specialization, organization and socialization of agricultural production has been greatly improved. From the perspective of the circulation of agricultural products, in the past, from planting to harvest and from the field to the dining table, it was mainly manifested as the circulation mode of agricultural products in kind form, with long chains, many links, great loss, and low efficiency; in recent years, the development of cold chain logistics has been accelerated, and all kinds of production and marketing docking forms have become increasingly active. There are more than 3000 e-commerce platforms for agricultural products nationwide, and the e-commerce transaction volume of agricultural products exceeded 50 billion yuan in 2013. The mode of agricultural production is changing from "manpower + animal power + intensive cultivation + decentralized management" to "human capital + mechanization + modern science and technology + new agricultural management subject + moderate scale management" at the present stage. The circulation of agricultural products has also changed from physical circulation to the combination of physical circulation and e-commerce marketing.

The regulatory behavior has changed. After the reform and opening up, China has broken the agricultural product circulation system of unified purchase and marketing, established a two-tier management system based on household contract management and the combination of integration and division, and farmers have become independent main bodies of production and management. the market mechanism began to play an active role in agricultural development. In the new century, the government has increased investment in agricultural infrastructure construction and science and technology extension, provided various subsidies to agriculture and farmers, and constructed and improved the agricultural support and protection system. The behavior-oriented role of the government is very obvious. Economic development has entered a new normal, with more emphasis on making the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and the government has taken effective measures to vigorously promote streamlining administration and delegating powers and stimulate market vitality. Coupled with the slowdown in the growth of fiscal revenue, to increase the support for agriculture, we should use the market to pry more social capital and financial capital through policy guidance. At the same time, more effective measures should be taken to relax the threshold of agricultural access, strengthen the supervision after the event, and maintain the market order, so that the market mechanism can play a greater role in regulating and controlling agricultural production.