A large increase in imports exacerbates food security concerns

On the one hand, grain production has increased in a row, while on the other, grain imports have reached an all-time high. Yesterday, Zhang Hongyu, director of the Department of Economic Management of the Ministry of Agriculture, pointed out at the "Economic monthly talk" of the National Economic Center that last year, China's imports of soybeans and grains accounted for 10% of the existing grain output of 607 million tons, and more and more low-priced agricultural products were imported. The production cost of China's agricultural products continues to rise, and the space for China's agricultural production has been compressed. In the view of experts, under the surge of grain imports, the hidden dangers of China's food security can not be ignored.

The difference between internal and external prices is the main reason for the surge in import volume.

Zhang Hongyu said that last year, grain achieved "11 consecutive increases", but at the same time, imports of agricultural products reached an all-time high. We imported 71.4 million tons of soybeans and 19.51 million tons of corn, wheat, rice plus flour, that is, grain, which added up to 90.91 million tons, compared with last year's total domestic grain output of 607 million tons, and imported soybeans and grains accounted for 10% of the 607 million tons of grain concept.

In fact, in 2013, China has been a net import of rice, grains, etc., and the import of feed grains such as soybeans has increased year by year in recent years. The large internal and external price gap of agricultural products has become the most direct factor leading to more and more grain imports in recent years.

Zhang Hongyu said that on the one hand, it comes from the total requirements of changing demand. Second, in the past two years, especially last year, the global prices of resource materials have dropped significantly, and the prices of grain agricultural products have also dropped sharply. There are more and more imports of low-cost agricultural products. Due to material inputs in all aspects, especially labor costs, including the cost of land lease, the cost of imported agricultural products is going up, the prices of imported agricultural products are going down, and the production costs of China's agricultural products are going up. The space for China's agricultural production has been compressed.

The hidden danger of food security can not be ignored.

More and more imported grain is pouring into China, raising concerns about food security in the industry. Zhang Yunhua, a researcher and director of the Research Office of the Village Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, once pointed out that the high pressure on food security and the high import of some major agricultural products will exist for a long time. However, Yu Xinrong, vice minister of agriculture, responded during the "two sessions" that China's grain imports have indeed been increasing in recent years, reaching an all-time high of 100 million tons in 2014. More than 70 percent of the 100 million tons were imported soybeans, reaching 71.4 million tons. However, China's grain demand is no longer simply satisfied with food rations, industrial and other grain consumption is increasing day by day, so China's food security situation is very good.

"this is based on the comparison between grain imports and domestic output. It is true that imports account for a small proportion of domestic output, but from the perspective of international trade, China's food security cannot rely solely on the international market. Excessive imports are a big problem for food security." Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst, said that China accounts for about 80% of global trade in soybeans, and nearly 1% of the world's sorghum is bought by China. If the prices of domestic agricultural products keep rising, it will inevitably lead to higher labor costs, higher prices of industrial products and a decline in global competitiveness. "Industrial products are the main channel for our country to exchange foreign exchange. After three to five years, when the export of industrial products is' unable to get out', our country will not be able to exchange foreign exchange, and then we will not be able to go abroad to buy grain. At that time, the price of domestic agricultural products will rise sharply. At this time, it is serious enough to affect the country's economic and social security. " Ma Wenfeng said.

Not only that, there are also several major bottlenecks behind the "eleventh consecutive increase" of China's total grain output. Mei Xingbao, a member of the CPPCC National Committee and an economic expert, believes that in addition to the double pressure of the ceiling of prices and the floor of the cost of agricultural products, environmental pollution has also given a red light for the development of traditional agriculture. The consumption of resources has also turned on a yellow light, especially water resources, which are too large to afford, as well as the aging of the rural labor force.

There is an urgent need for a breakthrough in large-scale agricultural management.

In Ma Wenfeng's view, what should worry most is that China's agricultural productivity is too low, the production cost of agricultural products is too high, and there is no global competitiveness. The production cost of China's three staple grains is basically twice that of the United States, so it is necessary to promote agricultural scale operation and reduce production costs.

Zheng Xinli, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, also said that the per capita arable land in China is only 0.09 hectares, which is a far cry from that of developed countries. If we do not adopt large-scale operation, it is difficult to promote agricultural modernization.

As for how to develop agricultural scale operation, Mei Xingbao said that according to research, the main problems in rice scale operation are poor land transfer, restricting the expansion of scale operation, poor circulation, and restricting the expansion of scale operation and the development of agricultural mechanization. To develop agricultural scale operation, it is necessary to standardize and guide the land circulation and promote the orderly circulation. "it is also necessary to increase the input of agricultural production and agricultural producers, increase farmers' pensions and let the elderly take the initiative to transfer the land." Ma Wenfeng added.

What is noteworthy is that the executive meeting of the State Council held yesterday adopted the "National Plan for Sustainable Agricultural Development," one of which is to promote various forms of moderate scale operation on the basis of stable household operation. Improve labor productivity and output level. We will take the new road of agricultural modernization to ensure national food security and increase farmers' income.