Cotton prices continue to fall and should move towards scientific and technological mechanization as soon as possible

"the March of fireworks will pass, and the cotton planting season has come." every time this season, cotton prices rise, but compared with previous years, the increase rate of cotton this year is greatly reduced. At present, the average domestic spot lint price is 13330 yuan / ton, which is 31.3% lower than last year and a slight increase of 0.11% compared with last month.

According to China Rural Voice "three Rural China" report, now is the end of cotton acquisition, a large number of cotton acquisition work is basically over, from the experience of previous years, cotton prices will rise every time of the year, but compared with previous years, cotton rose greatly this year, the current domestic spot lint price of 13330 yuan / ton, down 31.3% compared with last year. A slight increase of 0.11% over the previous month.

Han Zhongmin, a villager of Dongliang Village, Baiquan Town, Wusu City, Xinjiang, told reporters that the current cotton price is on the low side and the efficiency is not good, and it is very difficult for cotton farmers to make money, and basically can only rely on subsidies from the state to ensure that they will not lose money.

Han Zhongmin: if the benefit of cotton this year is in accordance with the market price and if there is no subsidy from the state, it will definitely lose money. If the state does not make up for it, their own work will be posted into the capital, and they will not have to make money, which is tantamount to leveling it, and some of the lower output will have to put money into it.

Why is the current price of cotton rising weakly? Zheng Bo, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information Market, believes that the greater pressure on cotton inventory in Xinjiang and the impact of imported veils are the main reasons for the lack of upward power in cotton prices.

Zheng Bo: at present, the operating rate of domestic spot textile enterprises remains low, and it is difficult to form a scale for piecemeal procurement. Although the mainland cotton enterprises moderate shipments, but Xinjiang cotton inventory pressure still needs to be alleviated, the overall cotton price upward power is insufficient. Secondly, in the later stage of seed cotton acquisition, the grade and lint percentage of cotton in all regions have declined, and there is still a lack of good-grade cotton. Considering that imported yarn still has an impact on the domestic market, textile enterprises purchase and strictly control costs, and short-term cotton prices are mainly shipped at a reasonable price.

However, market analysts pointed out that due to the reduction of acreage and supply, cotton prices will rise slightly in the later stage, but the high-grade cotton price gap may further widen.

Zheng Bo: as the policies become more and more clear, and the acreage continues to decrease, cotton prices may rise slightly. Considering that the low-count yarn will still be impacted by the outer yarn, it may be difficult to revive the purchase and sale of low-grade cotton in the market with more supply, and the price difference between high and low grade cotton will further widen.

The cotton target price system implemented last year and the current depressed cotton prices have made cotton farmers' pockets very "hurt." many cotton farmers have given up growing cotton and turned to other agricultural products. Xinjiang, which has policy advantages, fell by 15 per cent, while cotton cultivation in the mainland fell by more than 25 per cent, and domestic cotton acreage is expected to challenge the 50 million mu mark in 2015. Han Zhongmin, a villager of Dongliang Village, Baiquan Town, Wusu City, Xinjiang, has a deep understanding of this.

Han Zhongmin: the area of cotton in Xinjiang has decreased. As Murakami said, there has been a reduction of 10,000 mu of land, a decrease of 20 to 30 percent, as a whole.

So is the farmer's choice correct? Du Min, director of the Economic Research Office of the National Cotton Industry Technology system, believes that in view of the current situation, the reduction of cotton acreage is inevitable, and it is OK not to grow cotton in areas with many substitutes. however, if a good substitute is not found, it is still required to be stable.

Du Min: there are many substitutes in the Yellow River basin. Vegetables, fruits and food crops are all substitutes for it. All in all, the area of cotton will definitely be reduced this year. If a good substitute is not found, stability will give priority to. If there is a good substitute, it can be arranged according to the size of the income.

Zheng Bo, a market analyst at Zhuangchuang Consulting, also suggested that cotton farmers should pay close attention to national policies, adjust measures to local conditions, treat market changes rationally, and improve their income by improving planting techniques.

Zheng Bo: in the second year of cotton subsidies in 2015, for cotton farmers need to treat cotton production situation and cotton price trend rationally, they should pay attention to the guidance of national policies and subsidies to the market in time. According to their own land characteristics, follow the principle of adjusting measures to local conditions, obtain stable income; purchase excellent and qualified seeds, improve the effective germination rate at the same time, improve the knowledge of planting technology, promote excellent sowing, lay a good sowing foundation, and innovate with cotton management to reduce costs and high benefits.

With China's economy entering a new normal, the cotton industry has also ushered in a new stage. The era of target price announced that cotton prices returned to the low era. Since October 2014, cotton prices have basically hovered at 13000-14000 yuan / ton. Although on the surface, the interests of cotton farmers suffered losses, but the national cotton subsidy policy, to a certain extent, protected the interests of cotton farmers. On the other hand, with the cotton price returning to rationality, the price difference between internal and external cotton tends to be reduced, and the raw material cost pressure of cotton spinning enterprises will also be reduced, which is important for the improvement of their competitiveness. It's just that this benefit still needs to be released slowly, especially in the context of the overall downturn in terminal demand.

Four consecutive declines in China's cotton acreage in 2015 cannot be changed. In addition to the new pattern that "the market mechanism returns to Dabao and the policy guidance retreats to the second line", most cotton farmers are still led by the nose by past prices and profits, and timely adjust the planting structure according to the market trend and the pattern of supply and demand in the new year. it is still a weapon for a small number of large cotton growers to resist market risks, and the difference in agricultural participation is getting bigger and bigger. How to build an effective agricultural information service platform is particularly important.

For this year, neither the mainland, which continues to abandon cotton, nor Xinjiang, which is bathed in the spring breeze of special subsidy policies, can not escape the survival of the fittest by the market mechanism for the participants. With the fluctuation of cotton price range, the reduction of income and the effective guidance of the agricultural sector, the decline of domestic cotton planting enthusiasm has been inevitable, and grain, vegetables, fruits and so on have increasingly become a better choice for cotton farmers. Even the Xinjiang region, which accounts for 60% of the country's area and output, has begun to guide the adjustment of cotton planting structure, especially in areas with low cotton planting income. For the mainland, the overall support is limited, the cotton production and quality market suffers from abnormal weather, and the comparative income is not ideal, and so on, which has broken the hearts of cotton farmers, but the mainland quota subsidy is basically about 200 yuan / mu, simply putting aside the actual income. Cotton subsidies exceed grain subsidies for the first time, which also increases cotton farmers' confidence in growing cotton relative to grain.

There is no hope that the market will return to the past. Now more growers are concerned about the target price for 2015. According to the release time in 2014, the target price for this year is expected to be released soon. Although some representatives of the two sessions suggested maintaining the stability of the target price, the adjustment of the target price may be inevitable as the global cotton market enters a new price level, supply and demand enters a new stage, and national financial pressure is taken into account.

But we should also see that the haze in the cotton market will dissipate sooner or later, and there is still a price fluctuation cycle. Before ushering in a new cycle, we still have a lot of things to do, such as effective guidance for the agricultural sector. And to strengthen the publicity of subsidy policies, and cotton farmers, to improve the level of management, as soon as possible to science and technology, mechanized cotton planting direction is the general trend.