The problem of Farmers' income under the New normal

At present, China's economy has entered a new normal, the external environment and internal conditions of agricultural development have undergone profound changes, the increase of farmers' income is more and more deeply affected by the development of national economy and global integration, and there are opportunities to increase income continuously. but there are also pressures and challenges. According to the No. 1 document of the Central Committee in 2015, if China wants to be rich, farmers must be rich, take the initiative to adapt to the new normal of economic development, and achieve new results in promoting farmers' income.

Analysis on the situation of Agricultural and Rural economy and Farmers' income under the New normal

At present, China's agriculture and rural economy are generally improving, and there are two most remarkable signs: first, grain production has achieved a record "11 consecutive increases", with a total output of 1.2142 trillion jin, an increase of 10.3 billion jin over the previous year, and more than 1.2 trillion jin for two consecutive years. Second, the per capita net income of farmers reached 9892 yuan. For the fifth year in a row, the increase in income exceeded that of GDP and the income of urban residents, and the income ratio of urban and rural residents dropped to 2.92 from 3.33 in 2009. The good situation of the agricultural and rural economy is of great significance to the steady growth of the national economy, restructuring, benefiting the people's livelihood and promoting reform, which are two important prerequisites for observing the impact of the new normal on farmers' income. At the same time, it should also be noted that as China's economic development has entered a new normal, to increase farmers' income must adapt to the new development environment, deal with new changes and challenges, and create a good policy environment for the sustained and rapid growth of farmers' income. Under the new normal, the changes of agriculture and rural economy have an impact on farmers' income in four aspects.

First, household operating income remains stable. On the one hand, the development of land circulation and new business entities, as well as the application of technologies such as saving costs and reducing consumption, will be conducive to the growth of household operating income. this will bring about the scale income generated by scale, the benefit income generated by structural adjustment, the income increased by the reduction of cost, and so on. On the other hand, as the economic growth rate falls back to the medium-and high-speed growth range under the new normal, the market demand for agricultural products is weakening, and the pulling effect of prices on farmers' income has weakened. Under the double pressure of cost "floor" and price "ceiling", farmers' income from farming and grain cultivation is limited, and the problem of low comparative benefit is still more prominent.

Second, the growth of wage income has slowed down. Under the new normal, the growth rate of the number of migrant workers is slowing down, and the rate of wage growth is declining. In terms of quantitative growth, from 2011 to 2014, the number of migrant workers going out increased by 10.55 million, 9.83 million, 6.33 million and 5.01 million respectively, and the growth rate decreased year by year. In terms of wage growth, the decline in growth in recent years is more obvious, with nominal wage income growth of 16.3% and 16.8% in 2012 and 2013, and only 9.8% in 2014. In the future, with the further slowdown of the transfer speed of agricultural surplus labor, under the influence of multiple factors such as economic growth slowdown, structural adjustment and industrial transfer, the employment and wage growth of migrant workers will also be affected to a certain extent.

Third, metastatic income growth is facing challenges. From 2004 to 2013, the transfer income of rural residents increased from 96.8 yuan to 784.3 yuan, accounting for 8.8 percent of farmers' income, which played an important role in driving up the growth rate of per capita net income. However, it should also be noted that under the new economic normal, the growth rate of the national economy, especially the growth rate of fiscal revenue, has slowed down.In this context, it is facing greater pressure to continue to increase farmers' transfer income in the form of direct subsidies. how to further improve the direct support for farmers' income is also a major policy issue we are facing.

Fourth, there is great potential for property income growth. In recent years, affected by the improvement of the compensation level of rural land expropriation, the increase of farmers' land circulation and housing rental, and the increase in the number of people participating in investment dividends, farmers' property income has been increasing continuously. it has become an important source of growth of farmers' income, especially in some areas. In the long run, with the continuous improvement of the rural property rights market in the future, there is still a lot of room for growth in farmers' property income.

The integration of national economy and global agriculture has a profound impact on farmers' income.

After the economic development has entered the new normal, great changes have taken place in the external environment and endogenous mechanism that affect farmers' income. Farmers' income is more and more affected by the macroeconomic environment and the international market environment. In order to observe farmers' income under the new normal, we should deeply understand the impact of national economic development and global integration, and grasp the power source and focus of increasing farmers' income.

(1) the development of the national economy is closely related to farmers' income

A large number of empirical studies have shown that there is a significant positive correlation between farmers' income growth and economic growth. If the economic growth rate is fast, farmers' income will increase fast; on the contrary, farmers' income will slow down accordingly. From 1986 to 1990, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.9%, and farmers' income grew at an average annual rate of 2.7%. Between 1997 and 2002, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8.4%, and farmers' income grew at an average annual rate of only 3.9%. In recent years, farmers' income has maintained a good momentum of sustained and rapid growth, and the income gap between urban and rural areas has narrowed for five years, which is inseparable from the sustained and steady growth of the national economy.

However, it should also be noted that under the new normal, the national economic development is undergoing a profound adjustment, and the economic growth rate has fallen back to the medium-to-high speed range. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth rate in 1979 was 7.4%, lower than the 7.7% growth rate in 2013, and even lower than the average growth rate of 9.8% in 2014-2013. Fiscal revenue was 14 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over 2013, the lowest growth rate since 1992, and for three consecutive years lower than the average growth rate of 14.5% from 1979 to 2013. Therefore, on the issue of farmers' income growth, we must have historical patience, pay close attention to the impact of the national economy on farmers' income growth, and be determined to take more effective policies and measures to continue to maintain the good momentum of farmers' income growth. gradually narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents, and finally achieve income balance between urban and rural residents.

(2) Global agricultural integration has a profound impact on farmers' income.

Globalization brings more and more challenges to the development of agricultural industry and the increase of farmers' income. China's agriculture has made major commitments in the process of joining the WTO, abolishing all non-tariff measures such as quantitative quotas and licenses; tariff and tariff quota systems have become the only means to regulate the trade of agricultural products; the average tariff level of agricultural products is only 15.2%, only 1% of the world average; the tariff form is single, and the implementation tax rate is the same as the binding rate; and the maximum additional tariff on grain, cotton and sugar is only 65%. With the exception of some island countries and individual countries with large agricultural scale and strong competitiveness, the tariff levels of agricultural products in other countries are higher than those in China. Generally speaking, China is already one of the countries with the highest openness of agricultural trade in the world, and the pressure of competition is increasing.

In terms of the price of agricultural products, considering the international and domestic supply and demand situation and other factors, it is expected that the after-tax price of imports outside the quota may break through after 6-8 years. The problem of price difference is even more prominent in imported sensitive products such as soybeans, sugar, pork, beef and mutton. A large number of imports of low-priced foreign agricultural products make domestic prices rise neither with the pull of demand nor with the rise of production costs. Import prices form the "ceiling" of rising prices of domestic agricultural products. As a result, the comparative efficiency of some industries continues to decline, and the income earned by farmers through prices is affected.

In terms of agricultural subsidies, when we joined the WTO, we promised that the upper limit of "yellow box" subsidies would not exceed 8.5% of agricultural output value, and now specific subsidies for products such as cotton have approached the yellow line. We are also faced with the constraints of the "two floors" of resources, environment and production costs. the cost of agricultural production is rising, resources and environment are under great pressure, and the development space that depends on investment is getting smaller and smaller. With the continuous rise of agricultural production factors, especially land transfer costs and labor costs, China's agriculture has entered a high-cost era. According to the data of the Marketing Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, from 2006 to 2013, the average annual growth rates of production costs of rice, wheat, corn, cotton and soybeans were 11.0%, 11.6%, 11.6%, 13.1% and 12.0%, respectively. At the same time, resource and environmental constraints are getting tighter and tighter. The per capita arable land and freshwater resources are only 1 / 3 and 1 / 4 of the world average, respectively. Under the double squeeze of "ceiling" and "floor", the space for the development of agricultural industry and the growth of farmers' income has been squeezed, which is a realistic challenge we are facing.

(3) grasp the power source of farmers' income growth

From a large historical span, the internal and external factors affecting farmers' income can be divided into three stages. The rapid growth of farmers' income during the period from the beginning of reform and opening up to the first half of the 1980s (1978-1985) is mainly due to the increase of household operating income. From the perspective of the driving force of growth, the system reform with the household contract responsibility system as the core has greatly aroused farmers' enthusiasm for production. at the same time, the state has greatly raised the unified purchase price of agricultural products, which has led to the increase of farmers' income. Since the late 1980s (1986-2009). This period is a period of rapid development of China's industrialization. With the rapid development of township enterprises and labor-intensive industries along the southeast coast, a large number of rural surplus labor force has been transferred to employment. Wage income plays a more and more leading role in the composition of farmers' income. Since the global financial crisis (2009 -), the influence of economic globalization has been deepening, agricultural development and the increase of farmers' income are increasingly affected and restricted by international and domestic resources and two markets, and the four major sources of farmers' income have to play a role. The growth of farmers' income has entered a "multi-wheel drive" period.