Interpretation of the New normal of Agricultural Development in China

The term "new normal" first came from the concept put forward by Wall Street economists after the 2008 financial crisis, and its main manifestation is low growth and low employment rate. Since 2014, the "new normal" has become the hottest topic in China. What kind of new normal China's agriculture is facing can be summed up in three sentences, namely, "two-board extrusion", "double-lamp traffic restriction" and "six-industry development". The "two boards" are the "ceiling" of agricultural products and the "floor" of cost prices. The "double lights" are the yellow lights of the WTO and the red lights of resources and environment. "six products" is the sixth industry, which is a new concept put forward by Japan and South Korea several years ago. The so-called sixth industry, that is, agriculture can include one production, two production and three industries. One plus two plus three equals six. Therefore, agriculture is called the sixth industry.

The "floor" continues to rise. "floor" refers to the cost price of agricultural products. The continuous rise in the price of agricultural products is caused by many factors: first, the price of labor is rising, cotton picking in Xinjiang, labor costs have risen to 800 yuan per mu, rice transplanting and tea picking in the mainland, the high price of 200 yuan a day is very difficult to find people; second, the rent of land is rising continuously, and the rent of some land is more than 1000 yuan per mu, which is higher than land income. Third, the price of pesticide and chemical fertilizer seeds remains high, while the amount of use is constantly increasing; fourth, the cost of agrotechnical services is also increasing, and the farming income per mu has increased from more than 10 yuan in the past to more than 100 yuan today. These four factors make the price of agricultural products higher and higher.

The ceiling has been broken. The prices of agricultural products have become red in an all-round way, and some agricultural products have rushed through the "ceiling", which is higher than the price on the international market. The prices of some major agricultural products are already higher than the CIF prices of foreign countries, such as cotton. In 2008, only soybeans were the only major agricultural products. Today, the prices of major agricultural products are all higher than FOB prices in the international market. The price inversion of domestic agricultural products is becoming more and more serious and will continue to spread, which will become the norm. This phenomenon will seriously affect the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain and hinder the development of agriculture. A large number of low-priced international agricultural products pour into the Chinese market, and the phenomenon of smuggling is becoming more and more serious. China consumed more than 9 million tons of beef in 2013, with smuggling accounting for more than 2 million tons, according to Cao Binghai, chief scientist of the national beef industry technology system. The phenomenon of milk pouring by dairy farmers is also related to the entry of foreign dairy products into the Chinese market. The "floor" is raised and the "ceiling" is pressed down, making the space for agricultural production getting smaller and smaller.

Yellow and red "double lights" traffic restriction

Double lights, one is yellow light, the other is red light. The "yellow light" refers to the "yellow box policy" set by the WTO. After China joins the WTO, it must abide by its rules. The WTO has set up a policy of three boxes of yellow, green and blue. The "yellow box policy" refers to the agricultural subsidy entering the cost and interferes with the market price; the "green box policy" means that the subsidy does not enter the cost accounting and does not interfere with the market price; the "blue box policy" refers to the fallow subsidy policy, and China has no fallow policy. China's "yellow box policy" has been used almost, such as direct grain subsidies, grain subsidies are the contents of the "yellow box policy". Upon China's accession to the WTO, the yellow box subsidies we promised will not exceed 8.5% of the agricultural output value (5% in developed countries and 10% in developing countries). Grain re-subsidies have already violated WTO regulations, and there is no room for subsidies. This policy has turned on the yellow light, and some products have already turned on the red light. The "green box policy", such as investment in land consolidation, irrigation and water conservancy, poverty alleviation, agricultural insurance, and pollution control, does not directly interfere with the prices of agricultural products.

"Red light" refers to the constraints of resources and environment, resources and environment red light has been on. Agricultural resources are scarce and environmental pollution is serious. There are three major factors that are most tight in China's agricultural resources. the first is cultivated land. 2 billion mu of arable land accounts for about 1. 1% of the world's 20 billion mu of arable land. 10, but need to feed 1/5 of the world's population, per capita arable land is 1. 5% of that of the United States. 13, is Canada's 1? 18, even the per capita arable land in India is 1.2 times that of ours. In terms of quantity, land resources are becoming more and more tight, cultivated land is related to China's food security, and the problem of feeding more than 1.3 billion people is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue. As General Secretary Xi Jinping said, the rice bowls of the Chinese people must be firmly in their own hands, and the rice bowls of the Chinese people must mainly contain their own food. The land quality of our country is getting worse and worse, the best land organic matter content in the world is 12%, Japan's land organic matter content is 10%, China's is 0.7%, straw and human and animal manure are discarded, chemical fertilizers and pesticides are used more and more, resulting in a serious decline in land quality. China consumes 2.4 million tons of agricultural plastic film every year, while the recovery is less than 1 million tons, leaving all the rest in the soil. The pollution of agricultural plastic film seriously affects crop production. Take cotton as an example, 3.5 kg of agricultural plastic film per mu can affect 15% of cotton yield. at present, the average residue per mu is more than 4 kg. The investigation results in 20 counties in Xinjiang show that the average residue per mu is 22.88 kg. In addition, there is heavy metal pollution. According to public figures, 20 million hectares of land in China are polluted by heavy metals. Experts estimate that it will cost more than 100 million US dollars to treat one hectare of land polluted by heavy metals. The theory of pollution before treatment is obviously absurd.

The second is water resources. China is one of the 13 water-poor countries in the world. China's per capita share of fresh water is 27% of the world, and it is mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River, accounting for 81% of China's freshwater resources, while the area of cultivated land accounts for only 36%. The vast area of the north is an arid area, and the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall is very uneven. China's grain output has increased for 11 years in a row, and gratifying achievements have been made in agricultural development. However, the bumper grain harvest should have formed a pattern of transporting grain from the south to the north since the Song Dynasty, but over the past decade, the grain growing area in the south has become less and less, with less than 30% in Guangdong and less than 40% in Fujian and Zhejiang. A large amount of grain is transported from the north to the south, but there is a shortage of water resources and imperfect agricultural facilities in the north, and the bumper harvest in the north mainly depends on the massive exploitation of groundwater. Overexploitation has made more than 200,000 square kilometers of the North China Plain the largest funnel on earth. Water resources are extremely scarce, water pollution is also very serious, not to mention major rivers, even rural ditches are sewage cross-flow, fish and shrimp extinction.

In addition, agricultural labor resources are becoming more and more scarce, and the phenomenon of leaving agriculture, weary of agriculture and abandoning agriculture has spread in the whole society. As long as it is possible, rural workers will flee agriculture, not to mention high-end talent. According to a relevant survey, since the reform and opening up, China's provinces have produced more than 1000 top students in the college entrance examination, none of them are engaged in agricultural research, and more than 60 percent have majored in finance. At present, China's agriculture is still extensive, and agricultural modernization is mainly lack of modern farmers.

The environmental problem lies not only in pollution, but also in the lack of attention to biological chain and ecological chain. Hubei is the producing area of the four major domestic fish. When the three Gorges Dam was not built on the Yangtze River, it produced 20 billion fish a year. Once the three Gorges Dam was built, it now produces 200 million fish, 98% of which is gone. When the biological chain is broken, many species are gone, causing a chain reaction. One species is dying out every hour on earth, and it is a terrible thing that three crop varieties have died out throughout the 20th century. The lifeline of man lies in the field, the lifeline of the field lies in the water, the lifeline of the water lies in the mountain, the lifeline of the mountain lies in the soil, and the lifeline of the earth lies in the tree. Without trees, there would be no soil on the mountain; without soil, the mountain would have no water; without water, the field could not be irrigated. The break of biological chain and ecological chain will have a great impact on human life, life and production. In 2009, scientists defined and quantified nine sustainable safety lines for the earth's ecology. they are climate change, ozone hole, ocean acidification, biodiversity, land use, freshwater resources use, chemical pollution, air pollution and biochemical earth cycle. They believe that human beings can multiply and develop on the earth as long as they do not break through these boundaries. But recently, Science magazine said that human activities have gone beyond the four boundaries of climate change, biodiversity, land use and biochemical earth cycle, fundamentally changing the operation of the earth.

These resources and environmental problems have become two "curses", seriously affecting the improvement of the quantity and quality of China's agricultural products, and the cheap and high quality of foreign agricultural products form a strong competitive situation, so that China's agriculture is facing unprecedented new challenges. In the more than 10 years since China's accession to the WTO, agriculture will experience an unprecedented severe test for the first time, with two boards squeezed and traffic restrictions restricted by double lights. it will have an extensive and profound impact on the speed and structure, mechanism and power, strategy and policy of agricultural development.

The development of the sixth industry

To grasp the new normal, actively deal with the new normal and actively adapt to the new normal is a serious issue that China's agriculture must face at present and for a period in the future. in order to deduce the great logic of the new normal of agriculture, agriculture must re-recognize itself and reinterpret itself. re-plan yourself. To build agriculture into a "sixth industry" is the key and core, and the most urgent task is to lengthen the industrial chain: to inject modern elements to transform the first production; to pay close attention to the theme of the four products, to enhance the secondary industry; and to make innovative breakthroughs and develop the third industry.

The so-called injection of modern elements is to inject modern ideas, modern technology, modern management, modern facilities and so on. China's agriculture has always taken the road of Lewis' extension expansion, and it is feasible to develop cities and industries to feed agriculture in a certain historical stage, but under today's background, the two wheels of industry and agriculture should be turned together. China's agriculture can get out of the predicament. Another Nobel laureate, Schultz, believes that agriculture must cultivate an endogenous material foundation, must be strong, and cannot rely solely on industrial back-feeding. Schultz's research found that the resource allocation of traditional agriculture is the best, and the family is the most efficient interest community for the development of agriculture, and the reason why it lags behind is that there is no modern element. Today, we should walk on two legs, Lewis and Schultz's theory should be used, especially pay close attention to Schultz's theory, connotation transformation, cultivate the rural endogenous material basis, cultivate hematopoietic function. It is necessary to comprehensively consider industrial development. Practice "grain herding skills", read "Shan Hai Jing", sing "forest and grass opera", and play "fruit and vegetable cards" well.

First of all, we should inject modern elements and do a good job in four articles on the transformation of the first production.

1. Write a good article. On the basis of confirming the right to register and issue certificates, we will promote the appropriate scale operation of land. The national conditions of our country determine that the scale of agricultural management must be moderate. The average family farm in the United States is 3500 mu. The national conditions of China and the United States are different. The United States has more land and fewer people, and we have more people and less land. The logical goal of American agriculture is to maximize labor output, while the logical goal of Chinese agriculture is to maximize land output. If we blindly copy the United States, it will lead to the unemployment of a large number of agricultural labor force and cause serious social problems. The appropriate scale of land, the central document has given the standard, that is, 10 to 15 times the operating scale of local farmers, China's family farms are moderate in this scale. To build a new agricultural management system, the system is composed of six main bodies, namely, family farms, professional large households, cooperatives, social service organizations, leading enterprises and small farmers. China has 230 million land contracted farmers, but less than 30% of them participate in land transfer. Small farmers will be the main body of China's agricultural management for quite a long time. It is necessary to cultivate a new type of business subject, but it should not damage the interests of the old one and dampen the enthusiasm of small farmers. No matter what kind of form, the main body of business must be inseparable from the core of family management. The core of Xiaogang's successful experience is to restore the family business function of agriculture, with 86% in the United States and 88% in the European Union. The new five business models are inseparable from family management, the business model of leading enterprises in some places to launch a large park, small owners of the form of efficiency is very good.

two。 Do a good job in the article of "people". First of all, it is necessary to train modern professional farmers. The first condition for professional farmers is to keep up with their cultural level. The average number of years of education for more than 500 million agricultural workers in the country is 7.8 years, and it is absurd for such a level of education to adapt to modernization. In particular, the withdrawal of schools in rural areas over the past decade has brought new difficulties in going to school. according to a survey in 17 provinces, the average distance between primary school students and schools is 10.86 miles, and that of junior high school students is 35 miles. The original 590000 rural schools now have only more than 200,000, which has more than doubled. The two major characteristics of compulsory education are free of charge and the other is nearby. After withdrawing and merging schools, rural parents have to go to the city to rent houses for their children's education, which leads to a great increase in the cost of living. Education is free, but the burden on farmers is greatly increased. The national investment in education should be further increased, and the investment in education in North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and other countries around China is higher than ours. We should also change the mode of rural education, develop vocational education, continuing education and life-long education in many aspects while doing a good job of compulsory education, and change the model of rural elite education into a mode of survival education so as to improve the ability of farmers to survive and develop. to prevent the phenomenon of thousands of troops squeezing a single log bridge for college entrance examination. The problem of education is the foundation of training modern professional farmers. In this regard, China can learn from the successful experience of Japan. In recent years, Japan has launched the "succession Program". The government recruits university graduates who are willing to engage in agriculture, and the government pays for them to study in agricultural colleges and universities for two years. After graduation, they will become graduate students with major growers in their hometown for five years. After passing the examination, they are also willing to engage in agriculture for life. The government provides various preferential policies to plant no less than 20 hectares of land. The Japanese plan is so attractive that the annual target will soon be met. This kind of measure is worth using for reference. The second is the organization of farmers. Today's farmers' organizations are far from adapting to the development of agriculture, and there are only more than 1.2 million agricultural cooperative organizations in the country. There are three problems in the organization of Chinese farmers, that is, unorganized, weak organized and organized. Chinese farmers should make a leap from organizing farmers to organizing farmers, which is not only a reversal of word order, but also a qualitative leap. Farmers are passive in organizing farmers; peasant organizations are organized by farmers themselves to serve themselves, and farmers are active.

3. Lack of funds is the biggest obstacle to rural development. For more than 20 years, agricultural loans accounted for only about 5 per cent of the country's total loans, compared with 20 per cent in India and 25 per cent in the highest year. To solve this problem depends on two aspects: one is that policy finance must stretch its legs to the countryside, and the other is that private finance must grow rapidly. The current situation of rural finance can be said to be: "five dragons absorb water, one snake releases water." the five "dragons" of the four major state-owned commercial banks plus the Postal savings Bank absorb farmers' savings, but only rural credit cooperatives provide loans to farmers. Government-run banks alone cannot solve the problem. Today, we must develop the local strength of rural finance. The smoke of the world currency war pervades every corner of the world. Only the Chinese countryside, which has more than 900 million farmers, is a dead corner. Farmers are excluded from the currency war and will never get rich. There are advantages in the development of local finance in rural areas, because the rural areas are an acquaintance society, and the rules of the game of acquaintance society rely on kindness, integrity and harmony. Information collection does not need cost, and everyone knows it thoroughly. Those who do not keep integrity will be collectively abandoned by acquaintance society, not only damage themselves, but also harm their children and grandchildren. It is very feasible to excavate these rules and apply them to the development of rural finance.

4. Do a good job in the "green box" article. The "yellow box" has been closed, and the "green box" should be fully opened. For example, investment should be increased in land consolidation, irrigation and water conservancy, rural roads, poverty alleviation and development, and every village only goes to the village rather than every natural village. The road is the meridian of agricultural development, the road of life is open, and the road of production is out of the question. Water resources are the lifeblood of agricultural development. Our effective irrigated area is 52%. Effective irrigation is pursued by traditional agriculture, but if we cannot achieve agricultural modernization, how can we achieve modernization? For example, rural power, pollution control, poverty alleviation and so on, there are many places that can make a fuss. We still have more than 100 million poor people, and according to the international standard of per capita consumption of at least 2 US dollars a day, we will have more poor people. The annual poverty alleviation fund for so many poor people is more than 40 billion yuan, which is only more than 200 yuan per person, which cannot solve the real problem. First of all, a joint force should be formed at the central level. Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Poverty Alleviation Office, and civil affairs departments all have poverty alleviation funds and poverty alleviation projects, which makes the poverty alleviation forces too scattered, and these forces should be brought together to form a joint force. Financial allocation should also be greatly increased. In short, the "green box policy" has great potential and should be fully tapped.

The most important thing for food security or agricultural product security is ability security, and the key to ability security is the strong implantation of modern elements.

Secondly, we should pay close attention to the "four products" and upgrade the secondary production.

In order to upgrade the secondary industry, we must first build several industrial chains completely. The first is the production and processing industry chain of grain and agricultural by-products, the second is the production and processing industry chain of animal husbandry and aquatic products, the third is the production and processing industry chain of forestry and forest products, and the fourth is the comprehensive utilization industry chain of straw.

The "four products" are the appearance, quality, taste and brand of agricultural products processing. Appearance is to be good-looking; quality is to have good quality; taste is to be high-grade, from the safety on the tip of the tongue to the delicious on the tip of the tongue; and to create a brand. Human consumption has entered the brand era, we must make efforts on the brand, expand the market, and build the brand according to the needs of consumers. The rise of a great power first requires the rise of brands. Now we have more than 1500 products in the world, but the internationally recognized brands that can be heard are very limited, so it is of great significance to build brands. There is an interesting example. In Luochuan County in northern Shaanxi, the natural climate is suitable for growing apples. The local government came up with an idea that Luochuan Apple is the fourth apple of mankind, and the first apple is the apple stolen by Adam and Eve. The second apple is the apple that fell on Newton's head, the third apple is the apple founded by Steve Jobs, and the fourth apple is Luochuan Apple. Since then, the price of Luochuan Apple has doubled.

In addition, we should strive to innovate and make breakthroughs and upgrade the tertiary industry.

The agricultural service industry has broad prospects for development. The more developed countries are, the more popular the agricultural service industry is. American farmers account for more than 1% of the total population, while agricultural services account for 20 per cent of the total population. The untapped potential of this industry in China is huge.

First, innovative research and development. Especially seeds, the society is very divided on the issue of transgenic, but as a scientific research on transgenic technology, we must continue to study it in depth. In fact, the core issue of GM should be the food security of a country. The problems of genetically modified genes and biotechnology are concerned all over the world. Japanese rice is now 20 yuan per jin, but the state regulations do not allow it to be imported, and the state subsidizes farmers' own production. India has also proposed a time limit for the localization of seeds, and now many countries demand seed democracy, that is, the right to choose seeds to prevent the manipulation and monopoly of seed empires. Even the United States issued a biological defense law that shocked the world after 9 / 11 to prevent terrorists from using biotechnology to tamper with animals and plants and endanger national security. With regard to the issue of genetically modified genes, the central government has made it clear that research and development should be in-depth and promotion should be cautious. Especially in the seed industry, our more than 7000 seed sales companies accounted for only 2% of the world's sales in 2013, and four of the top 10 seed companies were in the United States. Recently, a very hot problem is that potatoes have become a staple food. Potatoes are very nutritious. Their mineral content is dozens of times that of apples, and their comprehensive nutrition is also more than three times that of apples. Potatoes consume the most in Russia, with an annual per capita of more than 170 kilograms, the United Kingdom more than 120 kilograms, the United States more than 50 kilograms, we are 31 kilograms, the world average 50 kilograms. The planting area of potatoes in China is over 100 million mu, and now the average output of potatoes is 960 kilograms, and its potential yield can reach more than 10,000 jin per mu. Now scientists are developing and producing all kinds of potato foods, potato biscuits, potato bread, and so on.

Research and development should also follow the trend of future agricultural development and be in line with international standards. The future development of agriculture has the following characteristics: first, the development from plane to three-dimensional. The United States and Israel are developing three-dimensional agriculture and vertical farms, which were invented by our ancestors. Now they use high-tech means to build vertical farms, that is, agricultural skyscrapers, 30-story skyscrapers can produce more than 100 kinds of agricultural products for 50,000 people a year. The second is the development from natural type to facility type. It integrates tourism, leisure, sightseeing, science and education. Third, man-controlled mechanization is developing in the direction of computer automation. A computer intelligent module in a vertical farm skyscraper can solve the problems of planting, watering, picking, packaging and so on. Fourth, chemistry is developing in the direction of biochemistry, and pesticides and chemical fertilizers have caused great controversy since they came into being. today, the harm of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is becoming more and more serious, and many experts are now mentioning the use of biological fertilizers again, and agriculture is developing in the direction of biotechnology. The application of biological core technology has entered the field of animal and plant life. Fifth, it is developing from land to oceanization. The granary at sea is being put into practice. The past marine civilization depends on trade, while the future marine civilization may be centered on production. Sixth, it is developing from geochemistry to space exploration. Now there are dozens of crops that have been tested to grow in space, and humans will enter another nomadic era when they build floating farms in space. The primitive nomadic era was grazing on the prairie, and the nomadic future is to use transporters to pick agricultural products from drifting farms to the earth for human consumption. Seventh, it has developed from production to immigration. The plan to emigrate to Mars is being experimented, and the United States has announced that it will transport 80,000 people to live on Mars in the next 15-20 years.

The second is innovative service. First, we should innovate the services of the whole industry chain. The four major international grain merchants all serve the whole industry chain, from seed research and development to market sales, they all have hundreds of years of historical accumulation, and have the advantages of capital, technology, talents and market in all aspects. Only in this way can the production efficiency be improved. Second, it is necessary to provide large-scale services, the most typical of which is agricultural machinery services. the Ministry of Agriculture has only issued a few policies, such as subsidies for the purchase of large agricultural machinery, and local agricultural machinery departments provide services within their ability, so that farmers will buy harvester spontaneously. Every year, 500000 harvesters go south to the north to solve the problem of mechanized harvesting of crops. Third, it is necessary to provide "stupid" service. Now agricultural households need a variety of services is very complex, you can create a model, a phone call, enterprises can provide all the agricultural services they need. The creation of such a service model is of great practical significance for China's small-scale operation to realize agricultural modernization.

The third is the innovative format. Under the Internet background of cloud computing big data, many incredible new business type soon came out unexpectedly. In particular, large leading enterprises such as Alibaba engage in Taobao Village and Taobao Town. The standard of Taobao village is that the shops are located in rural areas, with more than 100 shops with a turnover of more than 10 million; the standard of Taobao town is that there are more than three Taobao villages in a town, and Alibaba is allowed to enter its platform for sales. In 2014, there were more than 100 such villages and 19 towns across the country. JD.com 's idea is even better. They plan to hire two farmers in each village in hundreds of thousands of villages across the country to help sell pesticide and chemical fertilizer seeds on credit, and then pay after harvesting crops, thus saving a lot of intermediate costs. Many new business type based on Internet thinking are springing up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. Human society is entering a new tribal era. Don't ask me where I come from. As long as I have the same hobbies, interests and values, I can enter a virtual tribe where we can exchange information and share results equally. Today's Internet thinking is to get rid of all the intermediate links, manufacturers to bring things to direct sales users, this is new business type. Jixi's gathering land is also a very meaningful exploration. They make use of crowdfunding, the Internet and e-commerce to do some articles to make city dwellers become landlords who are not in the land, lead them to the countryside and let agricultural products into the city.

It is a new proposition under the new normal to build agriculture into a sixth industry with the integration of one, two and three industries, the integration of upstream, middle and downstream, and the mutual promotion of production, supply and marketing. This requires a relatively long historical process. In order to adapt to the new normal and deduce the great logic of self-development under the new normal, agriculture must achieve the "three have", that is, to make agriculture efficient; farmers have something to do; and rural areas have vitality. Only by paying equal attention to the three can we solve the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in China under the new normal. If we only talk about improving efficiency and learning from large-scale agricultural management in the United States, it will become a major social problem that hundreds of millions of farmers have nothing to do; if we only talk about farmers having something to do on piecemeal land and ignoring benefits, agriculture will not be able to get out of the strange circle of traditional inefficiency; only if we talk about the benefits of agriculture, farmers have something to do, the countryside is in decline, and without vigor and vitality, agricultural development is unsustainable and agricultural modernization cannot be realized. In order to achieve the "three have", it is necessary to co-ordinate urban and rural areas, so that public facilities and public services cannot be surnamed only by the city but not by the township. People want to go to the city, the city wants to go to the countryside. In order to realize the new countryside from "material" to "human", we must pay attention to three elements: the beauty of living environment, the beauty of social harmony and the beauty of human soul. Sharing the three beauties with each other is a complete and beautiful countryside, and agricultural modernization can only be realized under this background.