Ministry of Agriculture: China's grain output is expected to increase by 0.6% annually.

Rice

Be able to achieve self-sufficient imports and maintain basic stability

The report points out that rice is currently the second largest food crop in China. After exceeding 200m tons in 2011, China's rice output reached an all-time high of 206.43 million tons in 2014; prices in the domestic rice market have risen steadily; and China's rice trade is generally net imports.

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, China's total rice output will remain stable at more than 200 million tons. Specifically, the rice planting area will maintain a steady and slightly decreasing trend, and the per unit yield will continue to increase. In 2020, the rice planting area will be reduced to 446 million mu (29.75 million hectares), the per unit yield will be increased to 461kg / mu (6912 kg / ha), and the total yield will reach 205.6 million tons. In 2024, the planting area of rice will be reduced to 443 million mu (29.55 million hectares), the per unit yield will increase to 464kg / mu (6955 kg / ha), and the total yield will reach 206.5 million tons. In the next 10 years, China's total rice consumption will continue to grow. During the outlook period, food rations consumption maintained growth, processing consumption increased slightly, seed consumption and consumption decreased slightly, and total consumption increased. It is estimated that the total domestic consumption of rice in 2024 is 144.76 million tons. In the next 10 years, China's rice and rice prices as a whole will maintain a steady upward trend.

The report believes that due to China's limited rice trading partners, a substantial increase in imports is unlikely. It is estimated that China will import about 3.2 million tons of rice in 2024, an increase of more than 600,000 tons over 2014.

The report also mentions some uncertain factors affecting rice production and market. First, natural factors such as water resources, cultivated land and climate change. The uneven temporal and spatial distribution of water resources, the shortage of total water resources and the weak infrastructure of irrigation and water conservancy facilities in China also make it difficult to control drought and flood disasters caused by extreme weather. During the prospect period, coinciding with the launch and further promotion of a new round of agricultural structural adjustment, the rice planting area is expected to be reasonably controlled in the Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China and heavy heavy metal pollution areas in the south. Second, the price of agricultural products and macroeconomic regulation and other policy factors. The policy of supporting the market of rice is likely to be further reformed, the overall integration and centralized use of funds related to agriculture has become the direction of rural reform, and the policy of supporting rice production and price supporting the market may be reformed. The regulation and control of monetary policy will be more refined, and the rice processing field will usher in a round of optimization and integration, which will have a certain impact on rice market prices. Third, the policy and exchange rate of rice exporting countries and other trade factors. The traditional rice exporters represented by Thailand are actively destocking, while Vietnam, as a late exporter, is considering a collection and storage policy, which will also have an impact on the world rice market. At present, the United States has launched a policy of quantitative monetary easing and the exchange rate of the RMB has fallen continuously, which will lead to a relative reduction in the nominal price of grain priced in US dollars. In addition, there are other factors such as the upgrading of consumption structure.

Wheat

Production takes the initiative to optimize the basic balance of production and demand

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, China's wheat production will be restricted by soil and water and other agricultural resources and environment, and the production areas will be adjusted.

The report predicts that the wheat planting area in China will take the initiative to reduce in the next 10 years, and it is estimated to be 352 million mu (23.48 million hectares) in 2024, but the per unit yield will further increase, reaching 367kg / mu (5506 kg / ha) in 2024, an increase of 18kg / mu (262kg / ha) over 2014. Wheat production continues to grow and is expected to reach 129.31 million tons in 2024, an increase of 2.5 per cent over 2014.

On the consumption side, the report predicts steady growth in the next 10 years. Total wheat consumption is expected to increase to 131.95 million tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent. Among them, driven by the sustained growth of population, the consumption of wheat rations will continue to grow, and is expected to reach 88.77 million tons in 2024, with an average annual increase of about 0.5%, accounting for about 67% of the total wheat consumption. with the further improvement of the price formation mechanism of agricultural products, the growth rate of wheat feed grain consumption decreases, and wheat feed consumption is expected to be about 18.33 million tons in 2024, accounting for nearly 14% of the total wheat consumption. With the sustained development of the food industry, wheat processing consumption will continue to increase, and is expected to reach 15.39 million tons by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of about 1.3%, accounting for about 11.7% of the total wheat consumption. with the progress of sowing and cultivation technology, the future wheat seed consumption is expected to decrease slightly from 4.59 million tons in 2014 to 4.48 million tons in 2024, with an average annual decrease of 0.2%. With the improvement of drying and storage facilities, the loss rate of wheat has declined and is expected to be about 4.98 million tons in 2024, down 1.4 per cent from 2014.

In terms of trade, the report predicts that wheat imports will remain basically stable in the next 10 years. In the short term, the recovery of the world economy is weak, the performance of the US economy is relatively strong, international commodity prices denominated in US dollars are under constant pressure, while domestic prices will remain stable as a whole, and international wheat prices will maintain a certain competitive advantage. It is estimated that China's wheat imports will reach about 2.8 million tons in 2024, an increase of 1.8 million tons over 2014. Due to the lack of international competitiveness and export advantages of China's wheat, the annual export volume of wheat will be about 200000 tons during the forecast period, and China's wheat trade will still maintain a net import pattern in the future.