Corn temporary storage auction strengthens wait-and-see to curb excessive price rise

Last week's temporary storage corn auction announced the official start of this year's temporary storage corn auction, although the auction area is concentrated in the sales area, but this has sent a signal to the market to increase supply. Considering the remaining 75 million tons of temporary stored corn in China last year and the fact that the acquisition of temporary stored corn is approaching 80 million tons this year, the temporary stored corn supply is huge.

The trend of corn in Northeast China still depends on the policy.

Corn prices in the northeast fluctuated slightly this week. On April 16, the out-of-stock price of second-class corn traders with 14% moisture in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province was 2240,2260 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of Jilin Songyuan deep processing enterprises was 2300million 2330 yuan / ton, all up 20 yuan / ton compared with last week. Changchun deep processing enterprise purchase price is 228002300 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton; Liaoning Shenyang feed enterprise purchase price is 2350million 2380 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia Tongliao deep processing enterprise purchase price 234002380 yuan / ton, all basically flat.

At present, the total amount of temporary storage and acquisition in Northeast China is constantly approaching 80 million tons, which makes the market estimate of corn production in Northeast China higher and higher. In October last year, the author estimated that the corn output of the four provinces in Northeast China would be about 96 million tons. At present, from October last year to March this year, corn feed consumption in Northeast China is estimated to be about 6 million tons, deep processing consumption is estimated to be about 9 million tons, and outward transportation is estimated to be about 18 million tons. In addition, considering that about 3 million tons of corn from northwest and North China flows back to the northeast to increase supply, it means that the local corn consumption in Northeast China in the past six months is about 30 million tons. Together with the corn purchased by the temporary storage, the actual corn output in the northeast region may be about 110 million tons.

At present, corn in Northeast China has basically bottomed out, and in the later stage, corn will mainly be supplied by temporary storage auction. This week, Heilongjiang Province stores and auctions 290000 tons of corn. It is rumored in the market that deep processing enterprises above a certain scale can get a subsidy of 200 yuan per ton. What is more, it is rumored that there will also be a subsidy policy in the temporary storage corn auction in the later stage. According to previous estimates, the cost of corn for temporary storage auction should be 2400-2500 yuan / ton. If there is a subsidy policy, it will be estimated at 100 yuan / ton temporarily, and the arrival price will be 2300-2400 yuan / ton, which is basically in line with the current market price. Although the news has not been confirmed, the market has been waiting for the subsidy policy for a long time, which is also the reason why some market players have a wait-and-see mentality.

In short, if there are no relevant subsidy policy factors in the later stage, corn prices will continue to rise, if there are relevant measures, the driving force of corn prices in Northeast China will continue to weaken.

If there is no policy, corn in North China will rise steadily.

This week, corn prices in North China are mixed, especially in Shandong. Some companies raised their quotations at the beginning of the week and lowered them after Wednesday. The purchase prices of 14% moisture second-class corn processing enterprises in Weifang, Shandong Province and Texas were 2,380,2430 yuan / ton and 2330,2360 yuan / ton, both of which were 10 yuan higher than last week, while those in Zaozhuang were 2350,2380 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton. The purchase price of deep processing enterprises in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 2280,2300 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton. The purchase price of Henan Zhumadian deep processing enterprises is 2250,2300 yuan / ton, which is basically the same.

At present, the stock of corn in North China is expected to increase compared with the same period last year. By mid-April, it is estimated that about 20% of the corn grain is stored by farmers in Shandong, 20% to 30% in Hebei, and 30% to 40% in Henan, but the amount of corn stocks in traders and processing links has increased significantly compared with the same period last year. Some processing enterprises have a supply of food for about a month.

By comparison, traders had almost no inventory in the same period last year, and the amount of corporate inventory was also small. From a provincial point of view, corn produced in Shandong is still for self-use, and grain sources are purchased from Hebei, Henan and other places. Hebei and Henan have not shipped as much corn as they did last year. In particular, the grain quality of corn in Henan is poor, and traders in some areas report that it can only be used to make poultry food, which is not conducive to inventory, which leads to more surplus corn. Corn in North China can still support for three to four months. After July, North China needs to rely on temporary storage corn auctions to replenish grain sources. If the temporary storage auction prices remain at the previous year's level and there is no relevant subsidy policy, then North China corn prices still have room to rise. Previously, it was estimated that the price ceiling was 2600,2700 yuan / ton.