Be optimistic about the rural growth of Internet consumption

On April 16, the "2015 Consumer Market Development Report" released by the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that this year China's consumption-driven development model will be basically established, consumption growth rate, structure, hot spots, power, etc. will change accordingly, and consumption rate will exceed 50% for the first time, ranking first among the troika. Moreover, the power transformation of consumption growth has been basically completed, from commodity consumption to service consumption drive, from traditional consumption to new consumption drive, and from urban consumption to urbanization consumption drive. In this consumption-led development growth trend, the author is very optimistic about the rural growth prospects of Internet consumption.

In economics, consumption rate refers to the final consumption of a country or region in one year, and the ratio of the total amount spent on individual and social consumption to GDP of that year. It reflects the proportion of products produced in a country used for final consumption, and is also an important indicator to measure the proportion of consumption in the national economy. So, what does the consumption rate of more than 50% mean for the development of our country? It can be said that this means that consumption has begun to rank first in the "troika" of economic development (consumption, investment and export), and its position as the first driving force of the national economy is expected to stabilize. As Zhao Ping, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said: "Overall, in 2015, the momentum of consumption development was significantly better than investment." This determines that we not only occupy the first place in the 7% increment, but also in the economic stock and increment. Over the past five years, the contribution rate of consumption has gradually increased, that is, the proportion of consumption increment in GDP increment will also rank first among the troika. The consumption-driven development model will be basically established this year."

In the power transformation of consumption growth, the drive from urban consumption to urbanization consumption will be the most prominent growth power, among which rural Internet consumption has a very broad development prospect. Due to the continuous decline of Engel coefficient representing food consumption, the current urban and rural consumption in China has entered a relatively rich development stage, and under the background of economic downward pressure transmitted to consumption, the growth rate of commodity consumption represented by total retail sales of social consumer goods may further decline. In contrast, the growth of new consumption represented by Internet consumption is strong, and the growth rate of service consumption is much higher than that of commodity consumption. Among them, the growth rate of service consumption such as residence, medical care, culture, education and entertainment is much faster than that of food and clothing, accounting for a sharp rise in the proportion of total consumption. The growth of transportation and communication is more obvious, and service consumption has become the main driving force for consumption growth. Consumption driven by urbanization development will have a sustained and powerful pulling effect on traditional consumption or new consumption, commodity consumption or service consumption. Among them, the consumption potential of rural youth through the Internet should be the largest.

The transformation of consumption power from urban consumption to urbanization can be said to have a strong power base. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita net income of farmers in China reached 9892 yuan in 2014, and the income growth rate exceeded GDP and urban residents 'income growth for the fifth consecutive year. The income ratio of urban and rural residents dropped from 3.33: 1 in 2009 to 2.92: 1. In 2015, the growth rate of disposable income of rural residents in China is expected to be 1~2 percentage points higher than that of urban residents, and the growth rate of urban consumption will still be lower than that of rural areas. Under the background of the countdown to the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, the improvement of rural urbanization level and quality in the next few years is worth looking forward to. Of course, the strong growth of consumption driven by urbanization development is self-evident.

The Internet has broken the space limitation, and the integration of "Internet +" and service industry enables people to buy a variety of goods without leaving home, which will surely affect and change people's lives more and more as a new consumption mode. According to the latest report of China Internet Network Information Center, as of December 2014, the number of Internet users in China reached 649 million, and the Internet penetration rate was 47.9%. Among them, rural Internet users accounted for 27.5%, and the scale reached 178 million. The difference between urban and rural netizens, especially young netizens, can be said to be far smaller than the current urban-rural development gap. At present, the values, lifestyles and consumption concepts of the "post-80s" and "post-90s" in rural areas have changed greatly compared with their parents. While most of their employment choices are non-agricultural, they are also willing to enjoy a high quality of life through consumption, especially facilitated Internet consumption, which will continue.

Of course, despite the continuous growth in the scale and penetration rate of Internet users in rural areas, the gap between urban and rural Internet penetration rates is still expanding, reaching 34 percentage points as of December 2014. Part of the reason may be that the urbanization process has concealed the achievements of rural Internet popularization to a certain extent, and the fundamental reason is that the regional economic development is unbalanced, and the method to properly solve the digital divide between urban and rural areas still needs further exploration and innovation. It is suggested that relevant departments put rural informatization in a more important position and exploit rural development and consumption potential more creatively.