The Ministry of Agriculture issues the first agricultural outlook report on food security in the next 10 years.

Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture issued an agricultural outlook report for the first time, predicting that in the next 10 years, the increase in per unit yield will become the main factor in increasing agricultural production, and the agricultural industry chain will be further expanded and extended; the market supply and demand of major agricultural products, such as grain, cotton, oil, sugar, meat, eggs and milk, will continue to maintain a balance; the consumption of agricultural products will continue to grow rapidly, the prices of agricultural products will generally move up driven by costs, and the import and export trade of agricultural products will grow steadily.

What will be the development trend of China's agriculture in the next 10 years? How to better use market signals to guide agricultural production? At the 2015 China Agriculture Outlook Conference held from April 20 to 21, the Market early warning expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture issued the China Agriculture Outlook report (2015-2024). The production, consumption, price and trade trend of agricultural products in China in the next 10 years are prospected.

According to reports, this year, for the first time, China issued an agricultural outlook report in the name of the Market early warning expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture. Experts pointed out that this outlook report combines the new normal characteristics of China's economic development and grasps the overall situation of the agricultural product market for a period in the future, which is of milestone significance to the activities looking forward to the trend of China's agricultural development.

Food security is guaranteed.

Grain is safe all over the world, and the issue of food security has attracted the most attention. The report shows that in the next 10 years, China will be able to achieve the food security goal of "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of food rations". Xu WHO, executive chairman of the Prospect Conference and director of the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that based on a large number of data analysis, model system operations, and field experts to judge, China's future food supply security is fully guaranteed.

"China will maintain a reasonable rate of self-sufficiency in grain, and there will be more than self-sufficiency in the consumption of two grain varieties, rice and wheat." The report predicts that in the next 10 years, China's grain sown area will remain generally stable, and the comprehensive grain production capacity will be further enhanced. In 2024, the total sown area of rice, wheat and corn in China will stabilize at more than 1.36 billion mu, the output will reach 580 million tons, and the total consumption is expected to be 600 million tons. Among them, rice output is expected to stabilize at about 206 million tons, equivalent to about 145 million tons of rice production, rice rations consumption is expected to reach 114 million tons, wheat production is expected to reach 129 million tons, wheat rations consumption is expected to be 89 million tons. Corn production is expected to reach 244 million tons, corn rations consumption is expected to be 7 million tons, feed consumption and industrial consumption are expected to maintain a rapid growth rate, and a balance between supply and demand will be achieved through a moderate increase in imports.

Rice is the largest food ration for the Chinese people, and 60% of the country's residents take rice as the staple food. China's rice production reached an all-time high of 206.43 million tons in 2014 after exceeding 200m tons in 2011, said Peng Chao, an associate researcher at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture. It is expected that in the next 10 years, China's total rice output will remain stable, the rice planting area will be steadily reduced, and the per unit yield will continue to increase. He said that in the next 10 years, China's rice and rice prices will generally maintain a steady upward trend. Due to China's limited rice trading partners, a substantial increase in imports is unlikely. China is expected to import about 3.2 million tons of rice in 2024, only an increase of more than 600,000 tons over 2014.

Balance of supply and demand of major agricultural products

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, the production of major agricultural products such as oil, vegetables, fruits, meat, poultry eggs and milk in China will continue to develop steadily, agricultural production will continue to develop steadily, and the supply and demand of domestic agricultural products market will maintain an overall balance.

Vegetable is one of the fastest growing agricultural products in recent years. Kong Fantao, an associate researcher at the Institute of Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, predicts that vegetable production will continue to develop steadily in the next 10 years, but the growth rate will slow down. It is expected that the space for further increase of vegetable planting area in China is limited in the future, and the growth rate of sown area, per unit yield and total yield will tend to slow down. However, with the development of protected vegetables and the improvement of production technology, the level of per unit yield will continue to improve steadily. At the same time, the proportion of pollution-free, green and organic vegetable varieties will increase, and production will shift from focusing on output to ensuring balanced supply and improving quality and efficiency.

Meat is also an important part of people's food baskets. Nie Fengying, a researcher at the Institute of Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that although the supply and demand of live pigs will improve significantly in the second half of this year, there may be a periodic tight supply and demand, but the overall price increase will not be too large, and pig farming will be at a small profit level for the whole year. In the long run, the prices of live pigs and pork will rise in the shock in the next 10 years, and the fluctuation range will be significantly reduced due to the increase in the level of scale. In addition, the overall consumption of beef and mutton in China is growing steadily. However, affected by the feeding cycle, the transformation of development mode and epidemic diseases and other factors, the tight supply of beef and mutton will continue to exist. It is expected that beef imports will continue to increase in the future, while mutton imports will be stable.

The quality of development will be significantly improved.

"in the next 10 years, the quality of China's agricultural development will be significantly improved." Zhang synthetic, director of the Marketing Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, said: with the in-depth implementation of the strategy of agricultural transformation and structural adjustment, China's agricultural development will gradually shift from quantity growth to quality efficiency, and the output growth rate of major agricultural products will slow down. The improvement of per unit yield, which represents scientific and technological progress, will become the main factor in increasing production, the diversification and quality of agricultural products consumption will gradually become a trend, and the output will be further expanded and extended.

Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that in the future, China will pay more attention to the protection of agricultural resources and environment, and pay attention to the overall utilization of two kinds of resources and two markets at home and abroad. Driven by the rapid growth of domestic consumption of agricultural products and increasingly diversified demand, the import and export trade of agricultural products will maintain a steady growth trend, especially with the implementation of multilateral and bilateral trade agreements with relevant countries and regions, as well as the in-depth promotion of the "Belt and Road Initiative" strategy, the interactive integration of domestic and foreign agricultural development and global agriculture will be significantly increased.