Prospect of China's Agriculture in the next decade steady Development of Animal products

What is the trend of production, consumption, price and trade of agricultural products in the next 10 years? The 2015 China Agriculture Outlook Conference was held in Beijing on the 20th, and the Market early warning expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture released the China Agriculture Outlook report (2015 Mel 2024), which released information on the supply and changing trends of 18 major agricultural products, including grain, cotton, oil, sugar, meat and vegetables.

Experts predict that in the next 10 years, China's grain sown area will remain overall stable, and the comprehensive grain production capacity will be further increased. In 2024, the total sown area of rice, wheat and corn in China is expected to stabilize at more than 1.36 billion mu, the output will reach 580 million tons, and the total consumption is expected to be 600 million tons. During the forecast period, China will maintain a reasonable rate of self-sufficiency in grain, and the consumption of rations of rice and wheat will be more than self-sufficient, so as to achieve the grain security goal of "basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of rations."

According to the report, the production of major agricultural products such as grains, oilseeds, vegetables, fruits, meat, poultry eggs, dairy and aquatic products will continue to develop steadily in the next 10 years.

Correspondingly, the consumption of major agricultural products in China will also maintain rapid growth. During the outlook period, rice consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 0.3%, wheat consumption at an average annual growth rate of 0.6%, and corn consumption at an average annual growth rate of 3.1%, which is expected to reach 265 million tons in 2024. The consumption demand of vegetables, fruits, poultry eggs, dairy products, aquatic products and so on is increasing. Among them, the feed industry has gone through a period of rapid growth and entered a mature period, and "saturated growth" will become the main tone of China's feed market in the next 10 years.

According to the report, China's agriculture will face favorable conditions such as the accelerated transformation and upgrading of the food consumption structure and the continuous improvement of the agricultural policy system in the future. it is also faced with major challenges such as increasingly prominent constraints on agricultural resources and ecological environment, insufficient optimization of agricultural production structure, and upside-down prices of agricultural products at home and abroad. On the whole, in the next 10 years, China's agricultural production will continue to develop steadily, the ability to make overall use of two kinds of resources and two markets will be steadily enhanced, and the supply and demand of the domestic agricultural product market will maintain an overall balance.

Pork

Consumption growth slows supply and demand tend to stabilize

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, the proportion of China's pork production in meat production will fall from 66.4% in 2014 to 64.9% in 2024. Farmers with an annual output of more than 500 will become the dominant farmers in pig farming, and their proportion will reach more than 60% by 2024.

The report predicts that pork consumption and per capita share will grow at an average annual rate of 1.3 per cent and 0.8 per cent over the next 10 years. In 2015, total pork consumption and per capita share are expected to increase by 1.0% and 0.4% respectively over the previous year, to 57.6 million tons and 41.87 kg per person / year, respectively. It is estimated that the total pork consumption and per capita consumption will reach 65.1 million tons and 45.24kg / person / year respectively in 2024. Among them, the per capita pork consumption of Chinese households increased from 20.19 kg in 2015 to 22.00 kg in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0%, lower than the average growth rate of 4.2% from 2012 to 2014. The per capita pork consumption of urban and rural households increased from 16.32kg and 23.23kg in 2015 to 17.92kg and 24.30kg in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. Processed pork consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.3 per cent over the next 10 years, from 9.9 million tons in 2015 to 13.4 million tons in 2024.

The report believes that although the supply and demand of live pigs will improve significantly in the second half of 2015, pig prices will generally show an upward trend, and there may be a periodic tight supply and demand, but given that consumption is stable, the overall price increase will not be too large. Pig farming will be at a small profit level for the whole year. In the long run, the prices of live pigs and pork will fluctuate upward overall. The prices of live pigs and pork will rise in the shock in the next 10 years, and the fluctuation will slow down significantly due to the improvement of the scale level.

In terms of international trade, pork imports will remain at a certain level, while exports will increase steadily. Looking ahead, there will be no significant increase in imports. In the short term, pork imports are expected to increase steadily in 2015, with imports of about 590000 tons. In the long run, affected by the slowdown in production capacity growth, pork imports will remain at more than 800000 tons after 2019 and about 1 million tons in 2024, while net imports will increase from 340000 tons in 2014 to about 700000 tons in 2024. Pork exports will increase steadily. Under the influence of Russia's re-import of pork from China, pork exports (including live pigs) will continue to increase in the future, which will remain at more than 200000 tons and is expected to be around 300000 tons in 2024.

Poultry Meat

Large-scale production and power market to maintain the balance between supply and demand

The report predicts that in the context of economic development entering a new normal, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the poultry industry will be an important guarantee for the healthy development of the industry and to adapt to the new demand-oriented situation. In the next 10 years, the growth rate of poultry production and consumption in China will gradually slow down, imports will be stable, and the poultry market will continue to maintain a balance between supply and demand.

In recent years, affected by high production costs and dull overall consumption, China's poultry industry has entered a period of adjustment. Output has declined for two consecutive years and is expected to remain basically stable in the near future and return to growth in the long run. Considering the rapid development of the whole industry in the past five years and the slow growth of consumer demand, the possibility of continued rapid expansion of production in the future is reduced. The shortage of land, water and feed resources and high production costs also bring constraints to industrial expansion. According to the report, the average annual growth rate of poultry production will drop to 1.9% in the next 10 years, 1.5 percentage points lower than in the past 10 years.

In the next 10 years, the mode of production of poultry industry will accelerate the transformation, and the degree of scale, standardization, specialization and intensification will be significantly improved. In 2013, the proportion of large-scale breeding of more than 2000 broilers and more than 10, 000 broilers in China reached 85.6% and 71.9% respectively, and the proportion of large-scale breeding of more than 1 million chickens grew rapidly, reaching 12%. In the future, the large-scale proportion of broiler breeding will be further increased, and more broiler self-raising and self-slaughtering integrated leading enterprises will emerge.

The production of high value-added poultry products will increase. With the continuous improvement of residents' living standards and more diversified consumer demand, the poultry meat processing industry has broad prospects for development. It can be predicted that in the future, meat and poultry enterprises will pay more attention to brand development and develop a variety of high value-added deep-processed products.

With the improvement of the income level of urban and rural residents and the development of urbanization, poultry consumption will continue to increase. In the long run, the new urbanized population and rural residents are the main potential for an increase in poultry consumption. From the perspective of consumption structure, chilled poultry and processed products will become the mainstream products of consumption in the future. However, due to the diversification of food consumption demand, the growth rate of poultry consumption will be restricted, and it is unlikely that China's poultry meat consumption will exceed pork consumption in the next 10 years. Overall, poultry consumption will increase steadily in the next 10 years, and the per capita share in 2024 is expected to reach 14.6 kg, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate in the past 10 years.

In the next 10 years, China's poultry trade will continue to develop steadily. At present, China's poultry trade volume is only about 500000 tons, accounting for less than 5 per cent of the global poultry trade volume. In the next 10 years, it is expected that China's poultry trade will continue to develop steadily, and its imports will remain below 600000 tons by 2024, and exports are likely to be expanded, especially to Central Asia.

Beef and Mutton

Consumption continues to grow supply and demand are generally tight

With the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of beef and mutton in China has increased, and the overall consumption is in a trend of steady growth. However, due to the factors such as feeding cycle, production cost, transformation of development mode and frequent occurrence of epidemic diseases, the tight supply of beef and mutton will continue to exist in the next 10 years.

In the future, the comprehensive production capacity of beef and mutton will be further improved, and beef and mutton production will increase steadily. Driven by market prices and state support policies, the scale, standardization, industrialization and organization of cattle and sheep farming will be greatly improved. Beef and mutton production in 2015 is expected to increase by 3.1% and 3.7% respectively over 2014; beef and mutton production will be 7.84 million tons and 5.09 million tons respectively in 2020; beef production will reach about 8.28 million tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent; mutton production will reach about 5.48 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent.

Consumption demand for beef and mutton is expected to continue to grow and slow down. Considering the dietary structure, consumption habits and meat prices of Chinese residents, it is expected that the consumption of beef and mutton in China will continue to increase in the future, especially in ethnic minority areas. It is estimated that beef and mutton consumption will be 8.23 million tons and 5.37 million tons respectively in 2020, and 8.77 million tons and 5.77 million tons respectively in 2024, an increase of 22.3% and 26.8% respectively over 2014.

Although the consumption of beef and mutton has increased, the growth rate is expected to slow down year by year. With the upgrading of the consumption structure and the diversification of consumer choices, the growth rate of beef and mutton consumption is expected to decline. China's beef and mutton consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0% and 2.4% respectively in the next 10 years, both lower than in the past decade.

The contradiction between supply and demand of beef and mutton in China still exists. In the next 10 years, considering the development speed of China's domestic cattle and sheep industry and the supply capacity of the international market, it is estimated that the gap between supply and demand of beef and mutton in China will be about 500000 tons and 300000 tons by 2024. In the future, beef imports will continue to increase, while mutton imports will be stable.

The report pointed out that the next 10 years, beef and mutton will still be in a tight supply, affected by this, beef and mutton prices will be high, do not rule out the possibility of further rise, but the increase will slow down. In addition, the level of supply and demand of beef and mutton is also affected by epidemic situation, natural disasters, ecological environment, policies and so on.

Poultry egg

Output growth slows down consumption increases steadily

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, China's poultry egg production will continue to maintain a leading position in the world, with a steady increase in output, a slowdown in growth rate, steady growth in egg consumption, rising price fluctuations, and basically stable import and export trade; uncertainties such as cost fluctuations, policy changes, the process of scientific and technological innovation, and risk aversion methods still exist.

Over the past 30 years, China's poultry egg production has developed rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 6.5%. At present, China is the world's largest producer of poultry eggs, accounting for about 40% of the world's poultry egg production. In 2014, the national output of poultry eggs was 28.94 million tons, an increase of 0.6 percent over the same period last year, a relatively low growth rate in the past five years. It is estimated that the total consumption of poultry eggs in 2014 was 28.8 million tons, an increase of 1.0% over the same period last year. Due to the rise in international egg prices, China's poultry egg exports increased rapidly in 2014, with exports of 94582.7 tons of poultry eggs, an increase of 1.4 percent over the same period last year. The annual trade surplus of poultry eggs reached 189 million US dollars, an increase of 7.8 per cent over the same period last year.

In the next 10 years, benefiting from the intensive and large-scale development of poultry, China's egg production will continue to maintain a leading position in the world. However, restricted by environmental protection, market development and other factors, small-scale farmers have accelerated their withdrawal, the scale structure of laying hens has been further adjusted and optimized, and the growth rate of egg production will slow down. Egg production is expected to grow by 0.9% year on year in 2015 and reach 32.106 million tons by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0% during the forecast period, slightly slower than the average annual growth rate over the past decade.

With the continuous growth of population, the improvement of residents' income level and the accelerated pace of urbanization, the consumption of poultry eggs will continue to grow steadily. The total consumption of poultry eggs in 2015 was 29.065 million tons, an increase of 0.9 percent over the same period last year, and 31.958 million tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent during the forecast period. Of these, the processing consumption of poultry eggs was 5.157 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%, significantly higher than the total consumption growth rate. Per capita consumption is growing slowly, and the gap between urban and rural areas is still obvious. During the outlook period, the per capita egg consumption of urban and rural residents will grow at an average annual rate of 0.7%, and the growth rate will be slow, reaching 17.1 kg per person by 2024. Among them, the annual per capita egg consumption of urban residents will reach 19.7 kg, and that of rural residents will reach 12.5 kg. The gap between urban and rural areas is still obvious.

Poultry and egg trade continues to maintain a surplus pattern. The export volume is about 100000 tons, and the export market is still dominated by neighboring countries and regions.

The report points out that uncertain factors such as poultry production resources and environment, relevant industrial policies, the level of science and technology, and the risk of poultry breeding may affect the development of poultry egg industry.