The theme stock of large-scale agricultural reform is expected to heat up four areas to meet the development opportunities.

Shenzhen Special Economic Zone News (Reporter Wang Xin) 2015 Central Committee document No. 1 is expected to be unveiled in the near future. According to the tradition that document No. 1 has focused on agriculture for 11 years in a row, the market estimates that this year is no exception. Land reform, agricultural modernization, agricultural informatization, food security and other areas related to the large-scale agricultural reform are expected to heat up.

Agricultural reform involves substantive issues

In 2014, document No. 1 made comprehensive arrangements for rural reform with the theme of "comprehensively deepening rural reform and speeding up agricultural modernization."

Recently, there has been an intensive release of agriculture-related policies. On January 22, the General Office of the State Council promulgated the opinions on guiding the orderly transfer of contracted Management Rights of Rural Land to develop appropriate scale Management of Agriculture. Stimulated by favorable policies, among the 37 land transfer concept stocks that participated in the transaction, only 33 rose.

Sun Yachao, the proposed fund manager of the Qianhai Open Source Agricultural Index Enhancement Fund, predicts that this year's No. 1 document may involve many substantive issues such as land transfer, such as the agricultural management system and land property rights that have been going on for decades. Secondly, the land reform involves the systematic arrangement of China's existing ternary economic structure, which is intrinsically related to the construction of urbanization, the transformation of shantytowns, the reform of household registration system, the reform of state-owned enterprises and so on. Third, some business elites have paid attention to the future value enhancement opportunities in agriculture, such as Evergrande, Lenovo, NetEase, JD.com and so on. All these help to heat up the theme investment in agriculture.

Zhang Xiaojiao, an analyst at Bank of China International Securities, believes that judging from the documents No. 1 of 2013 and 2014 after the new leadership took over, the policy not only focuses on the top-level design of agricultural issues, but also more detailed and specific in terms of specific measures.

Capture the quotation of document No. 1

In fact, from 2010 to now, compared with the whole market, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry has more obvious excess returns in February, which is called "document No. 1 market" by the market.

In terms of the performance of the industry segments, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing sectors with the highest growth rates in 2014 were grain cultivation, seeds, animal husbandry and forestry; in 2013, there were animal vaccines, grain and oil processing, and forestry; in 2012, there were forestry, agricultural products processing and fisheries; in 2011, there were grain cultivation, marine fishing and seeds; and in 2010, there were agricultural products processing and forestry. Zhang Xiaojiao believes that the industries with the highest growth rates are quite different from each year, so it can be seen that the performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry is greatly affected by the focus on the direction of document No. 1.

Since the beginning of this year, the sector has shown signs of starting: by yesterday's close, the CSI 300 index was down 1.47%, but the large agricultural index was up 7.76% against the market. Sun Yachao believes that compared with the fierce trend in the early days of the market, there is a rising demand in the agricultural sector.

However, Societe Generale Securities analyst Jiang Xiaodong believes that from the perspective of the planting chain, the response of the whole plate has been relatively sufficient since August, and it is expected that the announcement of document No. 1 will have little positive stimulating effect on the stock price, and the relevant stocks should be gradually withdrawn in the short term. In terms of aquaculture, although the industry reversal logic is still established, the short-term supply and demand situation will lead to limited upward space for pig prices in the short term. January-March is the breeding stock construction period, which can be bought at a bargain. Undervalued varieties such as Haida Group are recommended in the context of poor overall fundamentals.