The future prices of soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil are "collective rest".

"the rising market of oil varieties will not end so quietly, after consolidation and consolidation, the probability of rising in the medium term is very high." Wang Huan, a Hubei grain and oil trader, told Futures Daily that the collective rise and fall of the three major domestic oil futures prices yesterday was only temporary, and the hype about low stocks in the oil market and El Ni ñ o weather was not over.

Since the rebound began on April 10, the medium-term price of domestic soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil has risen obviously, and the position and daily trading volume of the above three varieties have also increased significantly, showing a more perfect upward pattern of volume and price. Among them, the cumulative increase in the contract price of Dalian soybean oil and palm oil in 1509 reached 500 million yuan / ton, and the position and daily trading volume of the two varieties also increased synchronously, while the cumulative increase in the contract price of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 1509 was about 300 yuan / ton. However, the rising momentum of good varieties of oil suddenly stopped yesterday, is there any major impact on the market?

According to the reporter's understanding, the spot price of palm oil in the international market has risen continuously recently, first, it has been boosted by the market speculation that the El Ni ñ o weather will appear, and second, it has been affected by the rising international soybean oil price. third, some palm oil producing countries have raised export tariffs on palm oil, making the market optimistic about late prices. In addition, the international crude oil price broke the key price of US $60 / barrel and stood firm, which also enhanced the enthusiasm of the market to promote the concept of vegetable oil to biodiesel.

China is a big country in the import and consumption of palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The arrival of summer has brought the country into the peak season of palm oil demand. In addition, the current three major domestic oil stocks are on the low side, and the desire for bottom oil in the market is relatively strong. Domestic oil prices have risen as a whole, driven by rising oil prices in the international market. Whether this trend can continue depends on the rise and fall of oil prices, especially palm oil prices in the international market in the later period. At the same time, the change of the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic oil market also affects the development of the market to a great extent.

Analysts believe that from the analysis of the development trend of the international oil market, the El Ni ñ o weather phenomenon, which is very concerned about and is being hyped by the market, so far has not had any impact on palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and palm oil production in Malaysia increased sharply in March and April, which weakens the positive impact of the market on El Ni ñ o weather phenomena on oil prices. The market has also raised some doubts about the possibility of El Ni ñ o weather, and some investors with lucrative long positions have begun to wait and see.

"from the analysis of the development trend of the domestic oil market, with the increase of the amount of oil oil coming to Hong Kong, the inventory of the domestic oil market will change from tight balance to loose balance. If you take into account that summer is the off-season of overall consumption in the oil market, although palm oil prices may strengthen due to the increase in their own demand, most oil varieties will weaken because of loose supply and weak consumption." Liu Jin said: from the point of view of the oil plant, as the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are at historic lows, the seesaw effect between the oil meal will appear, and the oil price of the oil factory will become the new normal, thus the oil futures price will be supported to some extent. On the other hand, the narrowing of the domestic and foreign price difference of vegetable oil, the small import profit of traders, the decrease of domestic oil financing import and the historical low commercial inventory of vegetable oil will also have a positive impact on the oil price.

Wang Huan believes that the rise and fall of oil prices is for a better rise in the future, and the market needs time to analyze and digest the positive factors, and once market expectations are confirmed, then the "collective rest and recuperation" of oil prices will also come to an end.