There is a high risk for China to import corn outside the quota.

Although the widening price gap between domestic corn and the international market makes full-tariff imported corn more attractive, analysts point out that there are great risks in non-quota imports, mainly because of the large domestic corn stockpiles. State reserve corn auctions may narrow the price gap at home and abroad, and there is uncertainty about GM issues.

Although the government currently has no restrictions on corn imports, companies are still worried about possible policy changes.

Li Qiang, chairman of Shanghai Huiyi, said that China's corn stocks are very large and he believes China will strengthen its management of non-quota imports.

China's state reserve corn stocks have reached a record 150 million tons, which can meet consumer demand for more than eight months.

The Chinese government is taking steps to reduce inventory pressure, but the response to the corn auction at the State Reserve has been lacklustre, so the government is likely to lower the auction price, which could put pressure on domestic corn prices and hurt profits on corn imports.

Based on the above considerations, there is still a high risk of non-quota imports, said the purchasing manager of a large private feed processing company. In addition, if the imported corn contains genetically modified ingredients or other contaminants that have not yet been approved by the Chinese government, it will also pose risks to importers if the Chinese government implements new inspections.

China's corn imports fell to 2.6 million tons in 2014, down about 20 per cent from 2013, as the government cracked down on unapproved MIR162 corn imports, resulting in the return of more than 1 million tons of US corn shipments. At the end of last year, the Chinese government approved the import of MIR162 genetically modified corn, but most buyers still avoid importing American corn, opting instead to import Ukrainian corn or corn substitutes.