What will happen to China's agriculture in the next 10 years?

What is the development trend of China's agriculture in the next 10 years? At the 2015 China Agriculture Outlook Conference held a few days ago, the China Agriculture Outlook report (2015-2024), mainly drafted by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and officially released in the name of the Market early warning expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture, looks forward to the production, consumption, price and trade trend of China's agricultural products in the next 10 years. A series of data clearly outline the "future tense" of Chinese agriculture.

China's food security will be guaranteed in the next 10 years.

For a long time, the issue of food security in China has attracted much attention. This report shows that in the next 10 years, China will be able to achieve the food security goal of "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of food rations".

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, China's grain sown area will remain generally stable, and the comprehensive grain production capacity will be further increased. In 2024, the total sown area of rice, wheat and corn in China is expected to stabilize at more than 1.36 billion mu, the output will reach 580 million tons, and the total consumption is expected to be 600 million tons. Among them, in 2024, rice production is expected to stabilize at about 206 million tons, equivalent to about 145 million tons of rice production, rice rations consumption is expected to reach 114 million tons, wheat production is expected to reach 129 million tons, wheat rations consumption is expected to reach 89 million tons, corn production is expected to reach 244 million tons, corn rations consumption is estimated to be 7 million tons, will achieve a balance between supply and demand through a moderate increase in imports. During the expected period, China will maintain a reasonable rate of self-sufficiency in grain, and there will be more than self-sufficiency in the consumption of two kinds of rations, rice and wheat.

Zhang he, deputy director of the Market early warning expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and director of the Department of Market and Economic Information of the Ministry of Agriculture, pointed out at the meeting that according to the above data, China's grain production must strengthen its policies in the next 10 years. we should protect and mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers in farming and grain production and focus on agriculture in major producing areas, change the mode of grain production, and make great efforts to stabilize production and increase production capacity.

Most agricultural products will increase steadily

The report predicts that in the next 10 years, the production of major agricultural products such as grains, oilseeds, vegetables, fruits, meat, poultry eggs, dairy and aquatic products will continue to develop steadily. Among them, grain production increased at an average annual rate of 0.6%; soybean, rapeseed and peanut production in 2024 increased by 15.6%, 8.8% and 14.2% respectively over 2014; vegetable and fruit production is expected to increase by 6% and 12% respectively over 2014. The output of meat, eggs, milk and aquatic products is expected to increase by 16%, 11%, 24% and 19% respectively over 2014. On the contrary, affected by the decline in comparative efficiency and policy adjustments, cotton production area and production are expected to decline by 15% and 8% respectively compared with 2014, and sugar production will also decline to some extent, which is expected to be 12.23 million tons in 2024.

According to the analysis of the report, the consumption of China's major agricultural products will maintain relatively rapid growth, and the supply and demand of China's agricultural products will maintain an overall balance. " Zhang said that in the next 10 years, rice consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 0.3%, wheat consumption at an average annual rate of 0.6%, corn consumption at an average annual growth rate of 3.1%, and per capita direct consumption of vegetables at an average annual growth rate of 1.0%. Fruit consumption is expected to grow steadily, with per capita consumption expected to reach 93.9kg in 2024; sugar and meat consumption will continue to grow slightly, approaching 18 million tons and 100m tons respectively in 2024 Consumption of edible vegetable oil will slow and is expected to reach 33.13 million tons in 2024, while dairy consumption will continue to grow and is expected to increase by 30 per cent over 2014 in 2024.

It is of great significance to open up the prospect of agriculture.

After the first China Agriculture Outlook Conference last year, the first China Agriculture Outlook report (2014 Mel 2023) was released by the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, this year's China Agriculture Outlook report (2015 Mel 2024) was released for the first time in the name of the Market early warning expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture. Experts present pointed out that the release of this outlook report has a good grasp of the overall situation of the agricultural market and is of landmark significance.

Xu WHO, director of the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said: in recent years, China has made great efforts to strengthen the construction of the agricultural outlook system, and facts have proved that China has the basic conditions for holding the agricultural prospect. the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences already has the ability to look forward to China's agriculture. In order to plan agricultural development under the background of globalization in the future, we must speed up the analysis, prediction and release of agricultural information, strengthen the voice of the international market, safeguard the core interests of China's agriculture, and continue to make new contributions to world food security.