When supply pressure rebounds, short soybean meal should be sold.

Soybean meal 1509 contract showed an oscillating trend on the 11th. As of the close, the soybean meal 1509 contract fell slightly to close at 2733 yuan / ton, down 0.11% from the previous day's settlement price, while its position increased by 45980 lots to 4101558 lots. Market participants were cautious ahead of the USDA's latest report on soybean supply and demand.

Great pressure on domestic soybean meal supply

At present, spot stocks of soybean oil and palm oil are still tight. On the one hand, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil is about 620000 tons, and the spot supply of soybean oil in many oil factories is still tight, and some factories in the south need to queue up to pick up goods, mainly in late sales contracts; on the other hand, palm oil inventory is only more than 400,000 tons, which is the lowest in recent years. The author believes that it will take time for the tight situation of oil supply to be alleviated, and it needs to be alleviated by the increase of soybean crushing rate and the arrival of imported oil in Hong Kong.

The domestic market expects that more than 22.5 million tons of low-cost soybeans may arrive in Hong Kong from May to July. Among them, about 7 million tons of soybeans arrived in Hong Kong in May, 8.2 million tons in June and 7.5 million tons in July. As low-cost soybeans arrive in Hong Kong one after another, oil plants will start up one after another, and the operating rate of oil plants may return to an ultra-high level in mid-late May, and the spot supply of soybean meal will increase. In addition, the current oil factories actively pre-sell forward contracts and forward spreads, and prices continue to decline, which also establishes that soybean meal will operate at a low price in the later stage.

The weather hype may gradually appear.

From the perspective of time period, the focus of the market began to focus on the planting and growth of soybeans in the United States. As of May 3, 13 per cent of soybeans in the Midwest had been sown, up from 2 per cent a week ago, up from 5 per cent in the same period last year and an average of 9 per cent in the past five years. The author believes that the future weather conditions will affect the planting and growth of soybean in the United States. Both the US NOAA and the Australian Meteorological Office have suggested that there may be a strong El Ni ñ o phenomenon in 2015.

In addition, with the recent domestic macro expectations warm, funds to do multi-stage allocation point of view, it is easy to choose strong financial attributes and relatively good fundamentals of oil to allocate. As the fundamentals of oil and fat are better than soybean meal, some funds will carry out the behavior of throwing oil and throwing meal, thus suppressing soybean meal. However, in the context of the existence of weather speculation factors, domestic soybean meal may rebound weakly along with Meidou.

In short, the current domestic soybean meal pressure, the next few months in the planting and growth stage, weather uncertainties may bring disk speculation opportunities, domestic soybean meal can rebound to sell short, waiting for the market when the disk technology is weak.