Social inventory is still releasing sufficient supply in sales areas and weak corn prices.

I. spot market

Northeast production area: production area temporarily stable spring sowing in Heilongjiang Province

At present, traders of northeast origin are still releasing inventory, and the outgoing price remains stable compared with last week. At present, farmers in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have basically sold out their grain sources, and some villages in Jilin and Heilongjiang still have corn for sale, but farmers' quotations are on the high side, traders' current willingness to purchase is not strong, and purchases and sales are weak. In the aspect of spring sowing, spring sowing has been completed in other parts of Northeast China except Heilongjiang, and the emergence of seedlings in Jilin and Inner Mongolia is good. The rainy weather this week effectively alleviated the drought in the early stage of Liaoning. At present, spring sowing is still under way in the eastern and northern parts of Heilongjiang due to the delay of sowing due to low temperature in the early stage.

North China producing area: Tengku continues to have sufficient grain supply for the time being.

North China corn for wheat storage work is still in progress, small and medium-sized traders have a strong sense of risk aversion, actively out of the warehouse, large traders are relatively bullish, waiting for sale. At present, the inventory of deep processing enterprises in North China is abundant and the purchasing mentality is stable. The source of grain in North China is not only for local consumption, but also for the market in the surrounding sales areas.

Sales area market: there is no gap in supply for the time being.

This week, the transaction price of corn in the sales area fell partly, due to the poor turnover of grain auctioned in Northeast China and the full recovery of downstream demand. At present, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei and other inland sales areas still use most of the corn in North China and Northwest China, and the quantity is sufficient in the near future, and the purchase price of enterprises is stable and weak. In addition, the northeast corn auction has not yet ushered in a frenzied auction, which is completely contrary to the scene of last year. The mentality of grain enterprises is empty. It is also understood that the stock situation of the feed factory is better than that of the same period last year.

Port market: Beigang buys light Guangdong transaction is temporarily stable

Today, the purchase price of corn in Beigang is between 2330-2375 yuan / ton, of which the mainstream space is 2350-2370 yuan / ton. at present, there are not many main buyers in the port, most of them are mainly self-collecting ports, and the grain source comes from Heilongjiang, with uneven quality. At present, Beigang corn inventory is still more than 3.8 million tons, including about 1.5 million tons of temporary storage. Guangdong port transaction temporarily stable between 2490-2520 yuan / ton, north-south upside down has been alleviated, although traders quoted upward, but the transaction situation is still not ideal, restrain the rising space. At present, the replacement of sorghum and barley is still hot.

Feed farming: the price of eggs falls, the price of pigs goes up in the south and falls in the north.

Affected by the high stock of laying hens, the supply of eggs is sufficient, prices continue to fall, and the temperature is unstable in the near future to prevent the emergence of the epidemic. Pig prices rose in the south and fell in the north, while overweight pigs and fenced pigs in the north recently went out of the pen, increasing supply and suppressing prices fell slightly. But the south continues the rising trend, after the national pig price breaks 7, gives the farmer more reverie, but the upper space still has how much, still depends on the downstream consumption situation.

Deep processing industry: policy affects the mentality of starch enterprises and the decline of alcohol remains the same.

After the introduction of the deep processing subsidy policy, great changes have taken place in the mentality of enterprises in the Northeast and North China, mainly in North China, because they are worried that the price advantage in Northeast China will become more obvious in the later stage. At present, the production enthusiasm of enterprises in North China is higher, and the price is on the low side. The aim is to lock in short-term profits and reduce the loss caused by the increase of competitive advantage in the Northeast in the future. Although Heilongjiang has introduced a subsidy policy for deep processing, the sales price of starch in Northeast China remains strong compared with that in North China. In terms of sales, although the rising price of white sugar reflects the substitution advantage of starch sugar, the signing situation is not ideal due to the weak downstream demand, whether it is high-priced white sugar or starch sugar. The demand for alcohol is weak, enterprises are underemployed, and the situation of huge losses has not changed.

Second, market forecast

Social inventory is still in the supply market, and the transaction heat of corn stored in Northeast China is completely opposite to that of last year. In the case of no gap, the purchasing mentality of enterprises is stable, coupled with the substitution of imported crops, which further suppresses the price of domestic corn. From a supply point of view, the rebound in food prices needs to wait until the end of social inventory consumption, especially the bottom of trade stocks in the northwest and North China. From a demand point of view, attention needs to be paid to the recovery of downstream farming. Overall, trade grain in North and Northeast China still needs to be released in May, and corn prices are under pressure.