The demand for feed will be relatively good when farming begins to recover.

In the early stage, after the continuous sharp rise in domestic corn market prices, the overall pattern of stable in the north and weak in the south has been shown recently, but judging from the current supply and demand situation in the domestic corn market, this situation of being stable in the north and weak in the south is difficult to last for a long time. On the one hand, domestic corn prices are still on the high side compared with the same period last year, and it is unlikely that they will continue to fall deeply. On the other hand, at present, the relevant grain depots, traders and farmers are worried about the future price risk, and the sales enthusiasm has been significantly improved. However, due to the bulk listing of new corn is still some time, and feed, breeding market has begun to show signs of recovery, the future consumption of forage corn tends to pick up. Therefore, the domestic corn market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term, and in order to grasp the medium-and long-term trend, the following issues will be worthy of our close attention:

Focus one: corn in the producing area is actively released from the warehouse, and the short-term supply is relatively abundant

Recently, due to the influence of the substitution of feed wheat in southern China, the corn procurement of feed enterprises has mostly slowed down. At the same time, at present, it is the peak period for the purchase of winter wheat in the customs, and this year China's wheat production is higher than that of the same period last year, and the quality is better than last year. The government has also formulated a minimum purchase price system, and the acquisition funds are open to supply. As a result, farmers are more enthusiastic about selling wheat this year, and the enthusiasm for purchasing grain depots is also very high, which makes there are certain problems in the storage capacity of some areas in the main grain producing areas within the customs at present. For this reason, these grain depots speed up the efforts to get some corn out of the depot and vacate the warehouse in order to harvest more wheat. Recently, there has been a continuous process of rainfall in Northeast China, and the temperature is relatively high, and it is inconvenient for some dealers and farmers to keep their corn. coupled with the weakening of the corn market in the south, the relevant grain depots, traders and farmers are worried about the price risk in the future, and the enthusiasm of sales has increased significantly. To this end, the current domestic corn purchase and sale market short-term supply is relatively abundant.

Focus 2: aquaculture begins to recover, feed demand will be relatively good, which will boost the market in the future.

Recently, there has been an oscillatory rebound in China's pig market. at present, the price of hairy pigs has risen by about 0.2 yuan per catty compared with last week. Pig farming in most areas can break even, and a small number of pig farmers make a profit of 20 million yuan per kilogram. The price of broilers in poultry farming is relatively stable in most areas, and most farmers can make a profit of 3 yuan each, while a few can make a profit of 4 Mel 6 yuan. The price of eggs has risen by 0.2mur0.3 yuan per jin last week. Most laying hens keep their capital, while a few make a profit of about 0.1MUR per jin. The domestic feed sales volume is basically the same as that of poultry feed in most areas. Aquaculture has begun to enter the peak season, feed sales in most areas have gradually improved; the overall domestic feed market has begun to show signs of recovery.

Concern 3: there is a gap between supply and demand of corn in most grain enterprises and feed enterprises, but it will take time for new corn to be put on the market in bulk.

At present, the release of corn from the northeast and North China is more active, but it is still a long time before the new corn is put on the market in batches. in the alternating season of new and old corn, there is a gap between supply and demand of corn in most grain enterprises and feed enterprises. It is understood that at present, the use of corn in stock by feed enterprises in southern sales areas is mostly about one month, while that of a few large enterprises in Sichuan with remote traffic is about two months, and that of some feed enterprises in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province is only about half a month. However, the bulk listing of summer corn in North China and Huang-Huai Plain is about mid-early September, which is nearly 2 months away, so the general feed factory still has a gap in corn supply and demand for about one month. Although some southwest hilly and mountainous spring corn will be put on the market soon, the quantity is relatively limited, which can only alleviate or make up for part of the local corn supply gap. Moreover, the moisture content of new corn is relatively high on the market, so it is difficult to use it in large quantities.

Focus 4: the old grain will still be auctioned in the later period, and the new corn is growing well.

It is understood that the northeast region originally planned to auction corn in August, but has now decided to postpone it to September. But corn auctioned in Changchun in February is now quietly entering the market. This year, Rain Water is abundant in China's corn producing areas, and the growth of new corn is good as a whole; although the current corn growth is generally good, corn growth will enter a critical period after August. Changes in weather conditions will have an important impact on future yield expectations, and weather factors will dominate the market trend to a certain extent.

Concern 5: international corn prices tend to rise, which is good for the domestic market

According to a report released by the USDA in July, the US corn stock at the end of 2005 / 06 was reduced to 2.062 billion bushels, lower than the industry average, while the USDA increased the feed consumption of corn for the new season by 100m bushels. Considering the tight supply and demand situation of corn in the new season, this also makes the market focus again on the weather of the current corn planting belt, because it is the corn pollination period, and the weather is very critical to the yield per unit area. If the yield per unit area is lower than the current forecast, the final inventory of corn in the United States at the end of August 2007 is likely to fall to between 900 and 1 billion bushels, which constitutes positive support for current market prices. Due to the fact that the demand for corn in the United States exceeds supply for the first time in 2006, and there may be an inflection point, coupled with the harmful impact of hot and dry weather on corn growth in July, it is expected that international corn prices will continue to rise in the later period, which is good for the domestic market.

To sum up, although corn prices in some parts of the south show a weak market trend in the short term, it is still difficult to fall sharply. In the later period, with the passing of the peak period of substitution of feed wheat, the release of corn from some grain depots in North China and Huang-Huai ended, the inventory of corn in most grain enterprises and feed corn enterprises further reduced, and a new round of replenishment activities will be launched soon. At the same time, with the gradual recovery of the domestic livestock and poultry breeding market, the consumption of feed corn will also improve. In addition, international corn prices tend to rise, which will also lead to the domestic market, but the old grain will still be auctioned in the later period, and the new corn will grow well. The impact on market popularity can not be underestimated. Overall, the current domestic corn market does not have a comprehensive sharp decline basis, and with the full release of positive factors in the market, it is expected that the domestic corn market still has some opportunities to rise in the later stage, and corn prices in some areas may be higher.