Rapeseed storage policy is expected to continue to be implemented

The rapeseed meal market has reached a critical period, and where to go in the future has become an issue of concern to people in the industry. The author believes that after a long period of horizontal market oscillation, the short-term falling space of the spot market in rapeseed meal period is limited and is expected to oscillate upward.

Rapeseed collection and storage policy is expected to continue to implement the acquisition method has been adjusted.

Recently, a national conference on summer grain purchase was held, and there will be a clear answer to the question of rapeseed collection and storage. Judging from the feedback from relevant departments, rapeseed collection and storage may be implemented in different provinces and subsidized this year, and the specific purchase rules will be organized and implemented by each province, while it is not known whether the processed rapeseed oil will be brought into the unified reserve management of the national treasury.

The author learned from the relevant departments of Hubei Province that this year, the province is initially considering a subsidy of 0.2 yuan per jin for rapeseed collection and storage enterprises, and rapeseed processing enterprises operate independently and are responsible for the profits and losses of rapeseed products, but the specific purchase price of rapeseed has not yet been determined.

Although the implementation measures of rapeseed collection and storage in various provinces have not been issued yet, from the known situation, the pressure on the domestic rapeseed meal market is relatively small.

Rapeseed arrival in Hong Kong declined in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Short-term rapeseed meal inventory is low.

Customs statistics show that China imported 920000 tons of rapeseed in the first quarter of this year, a decrease of 190000 tons, or 17 percent, compared with 1.11 million tons in the same period last year. Due to the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter, China's coastal oil factories have had no seeds to squeeze since April, and more than half of them have to shut down and wait for materials.

Although China has not yet entered the peak season of aquatic demand at this time, due to the reduction of raw materials and the shutdown of oil plants, the inventory of rapeseed meal has also dropped significantly, and the tight supply of rapeseed meal in some manufacturers is still continuing. Statistics from relevant institutions can also illustrate this point. At the beginning of April, the stock of rapeseed in coastal oil factories was about 500000 tons, while on May 19, the stock of rapeseed in coastal factories fell to about 400000 tons. In addition, at the end of April, the stock of rapeseed meal in coastal oil plants was 58000 tons, compared with the current stock of 45000 tons.

The domestic rapeseed production has dropped sharply this year, and the supply of rapeseed meal is tight in the later period.

Due to the influence of the warm winter climate last year, the rapeseed maturity in the main producing areas of winter rape in the Yangtze River Basin is generally earlier than that in previous years. At present, new rapeseed has been basically harvested in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other regions, and more than 70 percent in Anhui. Rapeseed has not been concentrated on the market, however, there are sporadic quotations on the market, mostly concentrated in 2.0mi 2.3 yuan / jin.

From the harvest of rapeseed, take Hubei as an example, the unit yield of most fields is 280 jin / mu, which is 30 jin / mu lower than that of last year, and the better field is only 300 jin / mu, while last year's highest yield was 350 jin / mu. Rapeseed encountered dry weather at the initial stage of growth and maturity, resulting in less full grains, seedless or empty shells, which was the main reason for the decrease of yield.

Previously, a number of institutions have conducted field investigations and come to the conclusion that the planting area of winter rape in our country has declined. Taking into account the decline in yield per mu, it is estimated that the output of winter rape this year will drop by 15%, 20% compared with last year, and even reach 30% in some provinces. Rapeseed production has declined greatly this year, and the supply of rapeseed meal in the domestic market may be tight in the later period.