The corn spot vane has turned to the port and the flat price has bottomed out and rebounded.

From late March to the end of April, prices in the domestic corn market experienced a sustained decline under the pressure of abundant supply, low consumption and an increase in sorghum substitution. However, after entering May, corn market prices began to hit bottom and pick up momentum.

The starting price of corn stored in Northeast China provides bottom support.

The 2015 temporary storage corn auction began on April 9, and the auction time was interpreted as bad in advance by the market, but the corn participating in the auction in April was only the southern inter-provincial transfer of storage and imported temporary storage corn, and the planned sales quantity and transaction quantity were limited, which had little impact on the market. In May, the northeast temporary storage corn joined the auction list, and the market's concerned starting price was unveiled. The starting price of the northeast temporary storage corn produced in 2012 and 2013 was the same as the starting auction level in 2014, and the auction price still followed the principle of "starting at the right price".

It is estimated that the price of temporary stored grain after bidding and leaving the warehouse will be higher than the current market price. Take the Liaoning grain produced in 2013 as an example, the starting price of third-class corn is 2360 yuan / ton. with the addition of water, storage fees and transportation, the price to be shipped to the port will be close to 2500 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the current trade grain purchase price of 2400 yuan / ton. Therefore, the starting price of temporary storage provides a bottom support for the corn market price. With the continuation of the temporary storage auction, the market price will be in line with the price level led by the temporary storage auction, and the corn price will show a steady upward trend.

The pressure of "subsidy rumors" subsided.

Under the background of sluggish domestic corn consumption, deep processing and feed enterprises are pinning their hopes on subsidies to extricate themselves from difficulties. Since April, "subsidy versions" have emerged one after another, putting great pressure on the bulls of the market. But up to now, the announced subsidy policy is limited to the field of deep processing. The Heilongjiang provincial government gives 200 yuan / ton subsidy to the provincial deep processing enterprises participating in the temporary storage auction, and the Jilin provincial government gives 150 yuan / ton subsidy to the provincial deep processing enterprises. The above subsidies are all stimulus policies issued by the local government, and the subsidies at the national level are still not introduced.

In addition, the market rumors of feed enterprises, especially southern feed enterprises, "participate in the auction subsidy policy" is still not heard, which makes the negative impact of "subsidy rumors" come to an end.

Port flat price bottomed out and rebounded.

After nearly a month and a half of decline, the port corn trimming price, which is the target of the spot market, has bottomed out and rebounded after entering May. Driven by falling inventories, the price of corn trimming in Guangdong port has rebounded to 2540 yuan / ton at the end of March, the highest since January this year. Correspondingly, the trimming price of the northern port also showed a rebound, and the price also returned to the range of 2430 RMB2450 / ton at the end of March.

Synchronized with the spot, the trend of futures prices showed a trend of bottoming out. The main corn futures 1509 contract fell from a high of 2572 yuan / ton in mid-March to 2470 yuan / ton at the end of April, a drop of nearly 100 yuan / ton, but then began to rise steadily and broke through the important barrier of 2500 yuan / ton. Driven by temporary auction prices and spot prices, futures prices are expected to continue to strengthen.

Generally speaking, after a month and a half of downturn, corn market prices have hit bottom and rebounded, and the spot weather vane has begun to change. Supported by the upward trend in the spot, corn futures prices are expected to keep up with the rising pace of the spot.