Food security does not depend on medium grain storage.

If you have grain in your hand, don't panic in your heart. This is the core idea of China's grain policy, which sounds fine, but it is a pity that there are costs in the real world. The first trouble is that food prices have been pushed up, and China has become the price highland of the international grain market. From wheat to corn to rice, despite rising yields year after year, food prices in China are not only higher than those in the United States, but also higher than in countries such as Vietnam and Thailand. Many grain processing enterprises import grain from abroad, but the cost is even lower. This is also the main reason for the surge in China's grain imports in recent years.

Another cost of storing a large amount of grain is that the grain is old year after year, and most of the processing enterprises buy old rice from the grain depot. All the grain from the grain depot comes in new grain, and the old grain comes out, the older it is, the more it should be sold as soon as possible. Many grain depots across the country have stored grain for several years, and the northeast is even more serious. some are said to have stored rice from six or seven years ago.

Long-term large grain stocks, it is almost impossible not to induce corruption. The scandal of China Grain Storage occurs almost every year, and the "giant rat" in the granary is involved in tens of millions of cases. In 2013, a strange fire broke out in Lindian Grain Depot. 78 open-air grain stores and 47000 tons of grain were reduced to ashes, which shocked the whole country. Some time ago, CCTV also exposed that there was collusion between grain depots and grain merchants in Jilin, Liaoning, to replace the price difference between new grain sets with old grain. China Grain Storage has always been an independent small kingdom in the place, and this kind of thing must be not in the minority.

Is it really necessary for China to store so much grain? To answer these two questions, it is necessary to truly understand the issue of food security.

The most common saying is that China has a large population, so many people eat, what about the shortage of food? In fact, contrary to people's intuition, it is precisely because China has a large population and a vast market that food is safer. One of the major factors leading to the reduction of grain production is the climate. The wider the scope of the market, the smaller the fluctuation of grain production and prices. A village looks self-sufficient, and its food prices fluctuate much more than the national market. Given the size of China, it is almost impossible to have a climatic disaster that reduces grain production across the country.

The impact of modern agriculture on grain production depends to a greater extent on intensive farming and scientific farming, although farmers are decreasing, grain yield per unit area and total yield are constantly increasing. In the long run, Chinese people can only get fuller and better, and the possibility of a food crisis is too small.

Some people also say that, after all, China is a big country, once there is a shortage of food, who in the world can supply it? Professor Chen Zhangliang also said at the Boao Forum that if we do not attach importance to food security and we have bought all the agricultural products in the world, what will others do? Some people even worry that the international situation has changed and the grain market is closed. Is it not easy for people to "hold the throat" by relying on imports?

These claims are totally unfounded. First of all, China has always been a large agricultural country, and its imports are already limited, so how can it "buy all the agricultural products in the world"? If the Chinese people greatly increase their spending power and import large amounts of agricultural products from the international market, this is precisely a good thing. A self-sufficient country usually goes hungry, and importing large amounts of food from the international market often means that other industries are more profitable. As long as you have money on hand, it becomes cost-effective to buy food from all over the world. There is no country in the world whose agriculture can monopolize the international market, let alone blockade. To deal with the open international environment with the thought of "digging deep holes and accumulating grain widely" can only make our country suffer unnecessary losses.

Therefore, in order to ensure food security, we should abandon the war readiness idea of "having grain in hand and not panicking in the heart" and look at food security from a market-oriented perspective. There are grain futures on the market, that is, prices are used to guide all aspects of grain reserves. Once production is expected to decline and prices will rise, grain processing plants, warehouses, supermarkets, grain stores and even housewives will increase their grain reserves, other forms of food supply will increase accordingly, and imports and exports will be adjusted accordingly. In modern society, this reaction rate is only a few days. How much would it be appropriate to store grain to the whole market? God knows, just look at the price.

To put it bluntly, China's food security is a seriously exaggerated problem. Not only is there no problem now, but even if the stored grain is not purchased, the Chinese people will not be hungry. The International Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) proposes the so-called "food security warning line"-grain end-of-term inventory accounts for no less than 17% of annual consumption-which itself is full of the idea of planned economy. China's grain reserves are reported to be 35%, which may have reached 40%, according to conservative estimates by industry insiders. This is not only unnecessary, but also causes serious waste.

If we want to reserve grain, it should be limited to military affairs, disaster relief and relief, which is one of the major functions of ancient official grain. This kind of special grain storage for emergency and disaster relief is obviously much smaller. Nowadays, one of the major functions of grain storage is to stabilize the grain market and ensure food security. in fact, these can be handed over to the market.