The low price trend of early indica rice suggests that farmers postpone the sale.

According to analysis, at present, China continues to implement the market purchase policy of early indica rice in 2015, and the market price is 1.35 yuan / jin. After a large number of early indica rice were put on the market at the end of July, with the start of the national early indica rice market support, the price quickly approached to 1.35 yuan / jin.

As the season approaches, the harvest of early indica rice in the main producing areas of southern China will begin, and the auction of reserve rice at all levels will also begin one after another, and the reserve of early indica rice will flood the market through auction, according to a report from Rural Voice of China, agriculture, rural and rural China.

According to the reporter's understanding, at present, there has been a relatively depressed trend in the price of indica rice in the south, which makes many grain farmers worry. Will lower prices affect the purchase of new grain this year? This year, the state will continue to implement the minimum protective price purchase policy for early indica rice. How should grain farmers use the policy to deal with the market?

Ma Guangwen, a big grain grower, is turning on his own harvester to harvest rice in the early rice fields in Chenzhou City, Hunan Province. at present, the process is more than halfway through. he told reporters that judging from the current situation, early indica rice can be harvested bumper, and the yield per mu can reach 383 kg. However, Lao Ma is puzzled that since the beginning of this year, the market demand for indica rice has been sluggish. Indica rice with a storage period of less than one year and with a storage period of one year or more fluctuates at 1.30 yuan and 1.18 yuan per jin respectively, and the price is much lower than the lowest national purchase price. This tepid trend has been going on for five months and still shows no sign of picking up.

Ma Guangwen: the purchase price of 30% water rice is 90 cents per jin, equivalent to the standard price of about 1.20 yuan per jin. The current market price is on the low side. The purchase price of grain was started last year, but it is a little late this year, and the start-up price is also flat according to this. My land is estimated to earn 400-500 yuan per mu.

The situation reflected by Lao Ma is not alone. In Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan provinces, the price of early rice on the market is slightly lower than that in previous years. Tang Qingxia of Jiangxi Ruiqi Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd. analyzed the reason.

Tang Qingxia: this level should be low in previous years, because the temperature in the south is very low, the weather is rainy, the quality of rice is not very good, the moisture is very high, and the buyer has to deal with rice because the moisture is too high. The risk is still high. As far as we know, the area of early rice has been reduced this year. Take Jiangxi as an example, the area of early indica rice in Jiangxi has dropped by more than 900,000 mu, about close to the level of 5%.

Although production has been reduced to a certain extent, Wang Shutong, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information Market, analyzed that in 2013 and 2014, the state began to support the market to purchase early indica rice, middle and late indica rice and japonica rice, resulting in full national grain depots and local reserves. As a result, at present, when early indica rice is on the market, the storage capacity of the national grain depot is still very full, and the supply exceeds the demand.

Wang Shutong: at present, new season early indica rice has begun to be harvested in Jiangxi, Hunan, Fujian, Zhejiang and other regions in the south, but generally new rice has not yet been traded on the market. We consider that the supply of rice this year is loose, and the quality of early rice is affected by early rainfall. The opening price of ordinary early indica rice is about 1.18 yuan per jin this year.

What is the concept of 1.18 yuan per jin? It is 0.17 yuan lower than the minimum purchase price of 1.35 yuan per jin of Zaoxian Rice Expo, which continues to be implemented by the state in 2015, which is not a small difference for rice with a profit of less than 100%. So, at the current market level, do farmers sell or keep the early indica rice they already have? Tang Qingxia of Jiangxi Ruiqi Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd. gave the answer.

Tang Qingxia: for the area of selling grain, it is suggested that farmers, first, do a good job of purchasing and drying, because after reducing moisture, it also reduces a certain risk for purchasers, and the second is the time to sell, lean back as far as possible, if their own storage level and economic strength can be delayed, it is worth waiting. Because with the progress of the acquisition and the weather conditions, if the weather continues at this level, it may affect not only the yield of early indica rice, but also late indica rice. At that time, the market may react to the price.

In view of the current price trend of indica rice in the market, grain farmers see that the purchase price of new grain is low, and their desire for the state to support the market acquisition is particularly strong. So when will the price of rice tend to prop up the market? Wang Shutong, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information Market, said.

Wang Shutong: at present, China continues to implement the policy of supporting the purchase of early indica rice in 2015, with a price of 1.35 yuan per jin. And early indica rice is mainly used as a grain reserve, not as a grain source for processing rice in rice mills, so it is expected that the main body of the acquisition in the later period will be national and local grain reserves. It is expected that after a large number of early indica rice are on the market at the end of July, with the start of the national early indica rice market support, the price will quickly approach to the market price of 1.35 yuan / jin.

Early indica rice is the earliest rice on the market every year, and its price is more directly related to the income of most farmers in the south. Tang Qingxia analysis said that in terms of time, farmers can target after late July.

Tang Qingxia: the state may start the purchase price from July 16. According to the level of previous years and the low cost said by the Minister of Finance this year, the specific time for the acquisition may be in late July.