Cotton is about to run out of people, and the burden of internal and external troubles is heavy.

Du Min, an economic post scientist in the technological system of the national cotton industry and a researcher at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, has heard and said the most recently.

In recent years, the planting area of cotton in China has decreased sharply. According to the latest data from the national cotton production monitoring system of the national cotton industry technology system, the national cotton planting area has dropped by 22.8 percent this year. According to a survey conducted by the China Cotton Association, the actual cotton planting area in 2015 may be less than 50 million mu, the lowest since the founding of the people's Republic of China. Take Hebei, a major cotton province, as an example, in 2010, the cotton planting area of the province was about 10 million mu, but now this figure is only about 5 million mu, almost "waist-chopped".

"this year, the expert Advisory Group of the Ministry of Agriculture arranged for several of our experts to go to Henan for research, and everyone was worried about where to 'transfer'." Du Min said with a bitter smile.

Internal and external troubles in cotton production

"in the end, how many mu of cotton acreage can be reduced to attract attention?"

After Ma Zhiying, a breeding scientist in the national cotton industrial technology system, and Ma Zhiying of Hebei Agricultural University investigated the cotton production situation in Hengshui, Hebei and Binzhou, Shandong Province, he saw the severe situation that the cotton planting area was declining year by year. I'm anxious in my heart.

"China's cotton planting area is not less than 70 million mu all the year round. In the past, cotton production encountered serious problems such as cotton bollworm and Verticillium wilt, and it has never declined as sharply as in the past two years. " After dealing with cotton for more than 30 years, Ma Zhiying has an insight into the changes in the area of cotton.

What is the reason why cotton farmers are no longer willing to grow cotton? Du Min reached a consensus with attending experts at a meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture: the most fundamental reason lies in the collision between the product price "ceiling" and the production cost "floor". To put it bluntly, farmers "cannot make money" in growing cotton.

"now the market price of cotton is about 13000 yuan per ton, while in Xinjiang, the cost of producing a jin of cotton is 6.80 yuan." Du Min pointed out that the cost of planting cotton in the mainland cotton area is also high. In some places, the "floor" is higher than the "ceiling", so cotton farmers have no room for income.

However, domestic cotton still has no advantage in the international market. During the period of temporary collection and storage of cotton in China from 2011 to 2013, the price of cotton in India and the United States was thousands of yuan lower than that in China. Since the national implementation of the target price and related subsidy policies in 2014, domestic and international cotton prices have gradually converged, but there is still a large gap in quality between domestic cotton and imported cotton.

Naturally, large cotton demand such as spinning mills choose imported cotton with high quality and low price, while domestic cotton basically flows to the national reserve warehouse at the price supported by the government. In view of this situation, Chen Xiwen, a member of the Central Rural work leading Group and director of the office, lamented: the biggest problem with China's agricultural products is the strange phenomenon of "simultaneous increase in three quantities"-- output, inventory and imports are also increasing.

Reasons for continuing to grow cotton

Since the price of imported cotton is good and the quality is high, is it possible to import cotton without production?

"definitely not." Ma Zhiying told China Science Daily, "We must ensure that we rely on ourselves for at least 60% of the cotton use, otherwise we will lose our say and pricing power on cotton." Let other countries decide which cotton we use, the risk will be even greater in the future. "

He pointed out that cotton, as an economic crop, has a long industrial chain, and the whole industrial chain of planting, processing, and trade is tied to "100 million farmers, 20 million workers, and a large number of employees in the tertiary industry." therefore, the cotton industry is not as simple as cotton cultivation: "We cannot buy foreign cotton while leaving a large number of working people with nothing to do, especially in areas where land and ecological conditions are only suitable for growing cotton."

In Hengshui, cotton planting seems to be the best way to save declining groundwater in this area.

Chen Guirong, a researcher of Hengshui Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Bureau, said that growing miscellaneous grains in Hengshui history, cotton planting area has been expanding since 2001, reaching a peak in 2013. The decline in cotton planting area also began in this year. Under the stimulation of the state's policy of direct grain subsidy, the planting area of wheat and corn in Hengshui increased sharply, and a large number of cotton fields became grain fields.

The cultivation of wheat and corn has intensified the formation of underground funnel areas in North China-irrigation water in Hengshui accounts for 82% of the total water consumption.

Soon, the problem of over-exploitation of groundwater in North China "alarmed the CPC Central Committee." "Ji Zaoheng funnel" and "Dezhou funnel" in Shandong Province are nested together with "Cangzhou funnel", "Xingtai Juxin funnel" and "Tianjin funnel". It has formed the largest and deepest deep freshwater "funnel area" in the eastern plain of Hebei Province, which has become an ecological problem of domestic and international concern.

"the water resources in the funnel area are no longer sufficient to support the long-term and sustained growth of food crop production in a large area. The water consumption of cotton is about the same as that of wheat and corn, and it is also tolerant to saline and alkali and barren. In this area, cotton planting is the best choice for crop structure adjustment. " The experts who participated in the cotton production survey of the national cotton industry technology system agreed that.

There are still a number of challenges to be addressed.

In the eyes of the old cotton people, cotton is not a simple cash crop. They have a deep understanding of "the prosperity of cotton and the loss of cotton." "it is unstable without grain and uneasy without cotton." Song Yutian, director of the National Cotton Industry Technology system in Southern Hebei Experimental Station and former president of Hebei Handan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said so.

However, it is not easy to turn grain fields back into cotton fields-old farmers cannot afford to work for nothing for a year.

In the Heilonggang Basin, which is located in the core area of groundwater overexploitation in North China, since 2014, the state has spent 2000 yuan per ton of lint to subsidize farmers who grow cotton only one season a year, protecting the enthusiasm of farmers to plant cotton to a certain extent. however, in du Min's view, the days of cotton planting by subsidies cannot be sustained.

Moreover, the high cost of cotton production has something to do with its low degree of mechanization. As cotton is a crop with strong production technology, production management and picking are time-consuming and time-consuming. If there is no higher income drive, the enthusiasm of farmers is not high.

In addition, researcher Ma Ping, a post scientist of diseases and insect pests in the national cotton industrial technology system and director of the Plant Protection Institute of Hebei Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, pointed out that cotton is a "medicine jar," which has many diseases and insect pests in its life, and requires frequent use of pesticides. The backward mode of production directly harms the health of cotton farmers, but also results in the decline of farmers' willingness to plant cotton.

"moderate scale planting is a hurdle that we must overcome." Zhai Xuejun, deputy secretary general of the China Cotton Society, pointed out that large-scale planting has been realized, cotton pickers and other large agricultural machinery have the opportunity to show their ability, and the problems of cotton variety and quality can also be easily solved.

In this connection, Ma Zhiying pointed out that the scientific research work of the cotton industry should also catch up, and the state should continue to increase financial support and speed up the research and development of an efficient and simplified cotton planting technology system, such as suitable disease-resistant, high-yield, high-quality, early-maturing cotton varieties, fully mechanized management of agricultural machinery and tools in cotton fields, and supporting management techniques for the integration of agricultural machinery and agronomy, to help cotton farmers reduce cotton planting costs, improve cotton quality, and let farmers "plant cotton happily."