2017 Forecast of Egg Price

It is understood that after the egg price entered a downturn in June this year, compared with previous years, the boost of Mid-Autumn Festival stock also came a little later, and the strength was also weak, and egg breeding has mostly fallen into a loss situation recently.

From the time dimension, in fact, June every year is the low period of spot price of eggs. The temperature is higher in June, the storage life of eggs is short, and it is also a low season for consumption. However, the low price of eggs in June this year is particularly damaging to the aquaculture industry. Compared with the first two years when the breeding profits are better, the profits of laying hens breeding enterprises have been relatively thin this year, and the ability of farmers to bear risks is weak.

In addition, since the second quarter of this year, the cost of laying hens, especially the cost of feed, has gradually increased.

In June, the prices of soybean meal and corn, the main feed raw materials, were high, but the price of eggs fell to the bottom, and breeding profits suffered a "back-and-forth attack". It is understood that from January to July this year, the average loss of each layer was 2.9 yuan, with the largest loss in June.

On the demand side, in the short term, the willingness to purchase has weakened. At present, most food factories purchase on demand, and there is still no intention to stock.

Last week, the national egg price ratio was 2.62, an increase of 7.82% from the previous month. According to the current price and cost, each layer will lose 0.49 yuan in the future. Li Xia believes that after this week, the school canteen will prepare goods in advance, the demand for eggs may increase slightly, and prices are expected to rise steadily and slightly.

In the long run, from the perspective of fencing, there is no off-season in 2016, and there has been a substantial increase compared with the same period last year. If there is no large-scale epidemic in the future, the number of laying hens will be considerable, and the supply of small eggs in 2017 will not be very tight.

Egg prices are likely to fall significantly after the National Day, enter a volatile period from November to December, and fall in the first half of 2017 as a whole.

At present, a large number of domestic small farmers' anti-risk ability is still relatively weak, lack of in-depth understanding of the market, the situation is more serious, and lack of experience in aquaculture technology and risk management. The price trend of eggs in the future is worrying, and it is difficult to guarantee the profits of farmers.

Most industries tend to use scale to drive liquidity, and then the mode of liquidity to promote scale, and the aquaculture industry is no exception.