The rise of domestic wheat prices needs to climb the "four mountains"

Under the influence of the news that the 2016 price of wheat maintained 2.36 yuan / kg announced on October 10, the panic of the market to the future of wheat gradually relieved, and the purchase and sale price of wheat gradually increased. After the "National Day" cliff decline, the wheat market has returned to the level before the "National Day" in some areas. This price fluctuation can be said to have made the wheat market operators experience a psychological roller coaster. At the present stage, with the gradual rebound in wheat prices, is there really no trouble in the later stage of wheat prices? Will there be another skydiving? How will wheat develop in the future? The author believes that if wheat prices want to continue to rise, I am afraid they will have to climb four mountains. Here are some analyses made by the author, hoping to communicate and discuss with you.

The first mountain: the country has large reserves, but it is not good to support the market.

Data show that as of September 30, the China Grain Storage system had purchased a total of 20.7925 million tons of wheat in the supporting market this year, a decrease of 4.5521 million tons, or 17.96 percent, compared with the same period last year. According to incomplete statistics, the existing stock of wheat in China's grain reserves is about 18 million tons, that is to say, as of October 23, the stock of wheat stored by the state has reached about 39 million tons, which can basically meet the domestic consumption of about 15 months, and it can be said that the national reserves are quite large. At present, the market support acquisition has ended, the market support acquisition enterprises have withdrawn from the market, the main body of policy acquisition is missing, and the market support effect has ceased to exist before the market support acquisition next year. The author believes that although the national minimum purchase price of wheat continues to remain stable at 2.36 yuan / kg in 2016, the improvement of grain marketization will be a major trend, and there is actually no substantial positive support for supporting the market. In the case of loose supply, it is unlikely that wheat prices want to show a continuous rise.

The second mountain: although imports are reduced, it is no good to have a large price gap.

According to the latest import data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 210000 tons of wheat in September and 340000 tons in August, down 38.24 percent from the previous month and up 57.19 percent from a year earlier. A total of 2.2493 million tons of wheat were imported from January to September. It can be seen that imports are declining month by month, which is good news for the already oversupplied domestic wheat market. However, as of October 22nd, the customs value of American wheat to our port is about 1939 yuan / ton, while the sales price of domestic wheat of the same quality in Guangdong port is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the price difference between them is about 510 yuan / ton. The price advantage of imported wheat is still obvious. Under the background that the national policy tends to let the market determine the price, the price of wheat is separated from the market price and the space to continue to rise is limited.

The third mountain: noodle enterprises are weak and prices are soaring without support.

As far as I know, from the second half of 2013 to now, the domestic flour processing industry has been in the stage of depression and integration. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic flour processing industry has a processing capacity of 350 million tons, while the domestic terminal demand is less than 100 million tons. These data can explain why the overall operating rate of the flour processing industry is difficult to break through the 30% mark in the near future. In addition, according to the response of flour mills in some areas, the theoretical profit of large flour enterprises in Hebei is 550.60 yuan / ton, and that of small flour enterprises is 15 yuan / ton; that of Henan flour enterprises is 60 yuan / ton and that of small flour enterprises is 20 yuan / ton. If the appeal data is true, then the future price of wheat will rise between 0.02 and 0.06 yuan / kg. Under the background of the difficult production of flour enterprises, there is no support for wheat prices to continue to rise.

The fourth mountain: corn is cheap, forage wheat has no way out.

Recently, after the previous continuous decline in corn prices, net grain prices are basically stable at 1600-1700 yuan / ton. However, with the listing of a large number of corn in the new season, the supply of dry food in the market will increase significantly, the national temporary storage of corn inventory will be more difficult, and the market will face a new round of supply pressure; coupled with the negative impact of policy adjustment, old corn prices will continue to fall and move closer to new corn prices, the weak pattern of the corn spot market will be difficult to change in the short term, and the price decline in the future will still be the main tone of market operation. As a result, the price gap between forage corn and forage wheat is getting wider and wider, the use of wheat in the feed industry is getting smaller and smaller, or there is no way out for forage wheat, and the rise in wheat prices is likely to be limited again.