Major adjustment of corn policy to promote the rebalance of supply and demand

On November 2, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the guidance on the structural adjustment of corn in the "sickle bend" area, which pointed out that at present, the total amount of grain supply and demand in China is balanced, but the structural contradiction is becoming increasingly prominent. Affected by the slowing growth of domestic consumer demand and the impact of imports of alternative products, the current corn supply exceeds demand, inventory has increased significantly, and planting efficiency has decreased. According to the situation of corn supply and demand and the reality of production development, there is an urgent need to further optimize the planting structure and regional layout to improve the efficiency and sustainable development of agriculture. By 2020, the planting area of corn in the "sickle bend" area will be stable at 100 million mu, more than 50 million mu less than at present, with emphasis on the development of silage corn, soybeans, high-quality forage grass, miscellaneous grains and beans, spring wheat, economic forest fruits and ecological functional plants, etc. we will promote the close integration of agriculture and animal husbandry and the deep integration of industries, and promote agricultural efficiency and industrial upgrading.

In July 2015, Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu pointed out in his speech at the national work conference on modern animal husbandry construction that by the end of the 13th five-year Plan, the national output of meat, eggs and milk would reach 92.2 million tons, 30.5 million tons and 40.8 million tons respectively, an increase of 5.27 million tons, 1.56 million tons and 2.4 million tons respectively compared with 2014. According to relevant plans and forecasts, compared with 2014, the output of farmed aquatic products is expected to increase by 7 million tons in 2020. Considering the planning targets of all kinds of products, the total feed consumption in 2020 is expected to increase by about 5 million tons per year during the 13th five-year Plan period.

The raw materials of energy feed are basically self-sufficient in China, but the high price of corn seriously affects the competitiveness of animal husbandry. Based on the planting structure of crops, the main raw materials of energy feed in China are corn, wheat and rice are properly supplemented, and grain processing by-products, potatoes and oils are also widely used. Since 2004, China's grain output has increased continuously, especially the corn output has increased from 116 million tons to 216 million tons, which effectively ensures the supply of energy feed raw materials. In 2008, the national grain output was 607 million tons, exceeding the 2020 grain consumption forecast in the outline of the National Grain medium-and long-term Development Plan (2008-2020) (573 million tons).

The Plan for Corn structure Adjustment in "sickle bend" area (2016-2020) (draft for soliciting opinions) proposes to reduce the planting area of 50 million mu of corn by 2020, equivalent to 21 million tons of corn output, but at the same time develop 15 million mu of silage corn, alfalfa and other forage grass 10 million mu, the actual impact on the supply of forage corn is about 11 million tons.

Supported by temporary storage policy, corn supply exceeds demand.

During the 13th five-year Plan period, the annual demand for energy feed raw materials is about 350-3.8 million tons. In view of the fact that the consumption of food rations has been reduced by about 1 million tons per year in the same period, as long as the grain production capacity is stable at the current level, energy feed raw materials based on domestic basic self-sufficiency will be guaranteed. However, the temporary collection and storage policy promotes the high price of corn, which seriously affects the competitiveness of animal husbandry. In 2008, the state began to implement the temporary corn collection and storage policy, and the collection and storage price increased year by year, from 1500 yuan / ton to 2240 yuan / ton, an increase of 49.3%. In the same period, the production cost of animal products increased by about 40%. At present, the production cost of main livestock products in China is nearly twice as high as that in foreign countries, and the high price of corn is the main reason.

In addition to the increase in collection and storage prices, reserves are also increasing year by year. By April 30, 2015, the acquisition of temporary storage corn in China has finally ended, with a total purchase of 83.2876 million tons of corn, setting a new historical record again. The domestic annual balance in 2014 is 50.24 million tons, and it is estimated to be 53 million tons in 2014. In recent years, domestic corn has achieved high yields year after year, and a large number of temporary reserves have been purchased, but the downstream demand is weak and the annual balance continues to increase. The current domestic corn market is facing greater supply and destocking pressure.

It is urgent to get rid of corn stocks in countries with high corn stocks.

The temporary reserve purchase price was lowered on September 18. In 2015, the Northeast temporary Reserve acquisition policy announced that the purchase price (national standard third-class quality standard) was 1 yuan / jin, the price difference between adjacent grades was 0.02 yuan per jin, and the purchase price was 240 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous year.

On December 31, 2014, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate rate of some products, which mentioned increasing the export tax rebate rate of some corn processing products. this news is good for domestic corn processing enterprises, and the next step of deep processing export may be strengthened. In addition, the subsidy for deep processing in Northeast China has been increasing in the past two years, mainly because the domestic corn inventory is high and the downstream demand is weak, which leads to the slow removal of inventory in the national treasury. Subsidies are used to boost the participation enthusiasm and operating rate of deep processing enterprises, which is conducive to the digestion of national inventory.

At present, adjusting the planting structure only by reducing the temporary storage purchase price or increasing the deep processing subsidy to consume the inventory can not really solve the problem of high inventory. Steadily adjusting the planting structure and guiding farmers to plant and transfer to other varieties is the only way to remove corn inventory. On June 28, the Ministry of Agriculture held a forum on agricultural structure adjustment in the four provinces and regions of Northeast China in Changchun, Jilin Province. Han Changfu proposed to adjust the planting structure of corn, and the four provinces and regions of Northeast China will reduce the planting area of corn next year. On November 2, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the guidance on the structural Adjustment of Maize in the "sickle bend" area. It once again emphasizes the optimization of planting structure and regional layout to improve the efficiency and sustainable development of agriculture.

At present, there is a serious imbalance between domestic corn supply and demand. By optimizing the planting structure and many national policy support, in the long run, the domestic corn price will be market-oriented and is expected to be in line with international standards. At that time, the domestic corn market will enter the situation of balance between supply and demand.