"garlic is ruthless" stir up trouble before the Spring Festival

On the day of Laba Festival, Ms. Yu wanted to soak some Laba garlic on a whim, but she was surprised by the price of 7.5 yuan per jin of garlic in the market. Ms. Yu said that in her hometown of Henan, there is a custom of being jealous of pickled garlic on the eighth day of the twelfth lunar month, which is delicious and sterilized. It's just that garlic is a very cheap thing, but the price is higher than that of eggs. Statistics from Yiwu Farmers' City show that starting from New Year's Day this year, the wholesale price of garlic is about 5.50 yuan per jin. For the jump in garlic prices, the operator Ms. Chen told reporters that the imbalance between supply and demand and artificial hype or behind the push.

The price of garlic rises secretly.

Recently, in the retail area of Yiwu Farmers' City, the price of garlic was about 8 yuan per catty. Ms. Wang, the operator, said that before New Year's Day, the price per jin was about 6.50 yuan, while the slow price increase began in late November last year. "when the new garlic went on the market in late May 2015, the price was good, and the wholesale price was about 3.5 yuan per catty. Later, in July, the garlic from the producing area began to be concentrated in storage. By the end of the storage, the price rose slightly, about 4 yuan per catty. Wait until November, Shandong rain, snow weather increased, the wholesale price of garlic began to jump, and then never came down. " The current price is close to the peak of garlic prices in 2010, when wholesale prices are close to 8 yuan per jin, Ms. Wang said.

It is understood that most of the garlic in Yiwu market comes from Shandong, and the increase in retail price is largely due to the increase in the price of the place of origin. Zhuochuang information agricultural product price monitoring data show that the wholesale price of garlic has been rising and falling since it fell off the altar in 2011. In January 2012, the wholesale price of garlic was about 1.05 yuan / jin, rose to 3.2 yuan / jin in the same period in 2013, fell back to 1.2 yuan / jin in 2014, rose slightly to 1.9 yuan / jin in 2015, and jumped to 4.7 yuan per jin in 2016. If the price at the origin end has gone up, the retail end can't hold it down.

The imbalance between supply and demand is the main cause.

When it comes to the rise in prices, most of the reasons are that things are scarce, and garlic is no exception. According to Ms. Chen, an operator from Shandong, garlic prices have been hovering low since 2010, the enthusiasm of garlic farmers has been impaired, and the stock of old garlic has declined year after year. In 2014, the price of garlic was very low, and many garlic farmers reduced their planting area, resulting in a reduction in garlic production.

On the demand side, China is the largest producer and consumer of garlic in the world. The continuous decline of the RMB exchange rate has led to the improvement of garlic export situation, and suppliers have chosen to export garlic, resulting in a shortage of domestic supplies. Therefore, since the end of last year, the price of garlic has risen by a large margin.

In addition, hot money speculation has also pushed up the price of garlic to some extent. "there is an element of hype in the jump in garlic prices." Cui Xiaona, an agricultural product analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that in terms of production, although garlic production decreased in 2015, the reduction was not large, about 10%, which was not enough to promote a substantial increase in garlic prices.

"people who stir-fry garlic are generally big names in the industry. They have been engaged in garlic distribution for a long time and see business opportunities in the imbalance between supply and demand of garlic. By encouraging garlic farmers to cherish sales, borrowing funds to hoard goods in large quantities, and so on, artificially raise prices, and then wait for an opportunity to sell for profit. " Cui Xiaona said that those agricultural products with relatively concentrated origin, storage resistance and low unit price are easy to be favored by hot money.

However, judging from the wholesale and zero situation in the past few days, it is unlikely that the next surge will continue. "the current price is already high, and the wholesale price fell a few cents a few days ago. When the Spring Festival is over, the price rise is even more powerless." Ms. Chen said.