Will grain dollars replace petrodollars?

Recently, William Endor, an American scholar in Germany, published another book called "Food crisis" after "Oil War: oil Politics determines the New World order." William Endor believes that after the oil and subprime crisis, the next global crisis will be the agricultural crisis caused by food prices.

Grain dollars are replacing petrodollars

Entering the 21st century, the strategic position of petrodollars is teetering under the challenge of the international community: euro zone countries join together to challenge the dollar and directly carve up the market share of the dollar; because of the increase in petrodollar revenue, Russia, a big oil country, has enhanced its international voice and strengthened its competition with the United States; the internationalization of RMB is also challenging the hegemony of the dollar. Judging the hour and sizing up the situation, the United States aims at grain as an international commodity, hoping to replicate the glory of the petrodollar and realize the renaissance of the US dollar.

The strategy of grain dollar is based on the national conditions of the United States. The central United States has a vast Great Plains, sparsely populated, fertile soil, conducive to mechanization and mass production. At the same time, the U. S. government has the highest subsidies for agriculture in the world. This builds the world's leading competitiveness of US food, dominating the world in key agricultural sectors such as soybeans, corn, feed, wheat and oilseeds.

In the future, the global trade status of food and water resources will certainly exceed the important position of oil in global trade today. Today, the position of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves depends largely on global oil suppliers such as OPEC. This bundle of petrodollars consumes a lot of US military spending. If the grain dollar can control a large number of global market trade transactions, then the euro, yen and gold will all become third-rate currencies in the future.

As the main currency of international trade settlement, it is only natural to settle international grain trade in US dollars. With the increasing surplus of US food exports, US dollars continue to flow back to the United States, increasing the wealth of the United States. Grain importing countries must reserve a large amount of US dollars in order to meet the demand for imported food, and US dollar reserves are achieved through the purchase of US dollar bonds, so it will be impossible for grain importing countries to decouple their currencies from the US dollar. When the dollarization of food reaches a certain level, the dollar is tied to food, and food replaces oil, becoming a new dollar anchor, kidnapping the global economy like petrodollars.

First of all, in the name of science, they carry out transgenic engineering research, obtain a large number of patents, and control certain key grain varieties, such as large-scale crops such as soybeans and rice, and important poultry products such as chickens and dairy cows. Second, they look for opportunities, such as large-scale agricultural disasters, wars, debt crises, and with the help of some international organizations, to force farmers in other countries to adopt crop seeds in which they control intellectual property rights in the name of aid.

In the international grain market, the transnational capital represented by Fengyi International, Cargill, Bunkie, ADM and Louis Dreyfus is best at making use of the strong advantages of funds to acquire rivals, so as to manipulate prices and monopolize the market. What is more serious is that the United States has made use of its advanced breeding technology to penetrate the Chinese breeding market on a large scale. Seed is the key to food security, and seed industry is a strategic industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood. With the related supporting industrial chain, seed industry security is almost equal to food security and sustainable development of agriculture. The top 10 companies in the domestic seed industry account for only 0.8% of the global market share, while multinational seed companies represented by the United States have long used vegetables and flower seeds as a breakthrough to enter the Chinese seed market.

You should put your rice bowl in your own hands.

For protection reasons, China's grain prices have been higher than those in the international market for a long time. Recently, under the impact of imported grain, domestic grain prices have dropped significantly. The Huaxia Times reported that farmers in the main rice producing areas in the south have recently found it difficult to sell grain. Due to the serious backlog of state-owned grain depots, they basically do not receive grain, and the main body of the market is cautious in purchasing. In major grain-producing counties and counties in Anhui, farmers even have to give a 20% discount on grain sales. Due to the sharp fall in international grain prices and the surge in domestic grain imports, the market has been unable to digest smoothly and the national treasury is in a state of saturation.

China's food security is based on existing import tariffs. Once grain tariffs are reduced or tariff quotas are increased, food security will face the manifestation of potential shocks. China's food security in the future depends not only on the quantity of grain production, but also on the international competitiveness of grain, because in the era of global economic integration, under the general trend of gradual reduction of tariffs on agricultural products, food security cannot rely on high tariff protection for a long time.

With the accelerating pace of industrialization and urbanization, the competition between agriculture and industry, rural and urban areas for arable land, water resources, human resources and other resource elements is becoming increasingly fierce. Domestic grain production capacity is facing the double pressure of resource and environmental constraints.

There are also overloaded operation of land in China. The area of arable land in the United States is larger than that in China, but China produces twice as much grain as the United States. Is it because China's agricultural technology is more advanced than that of the United States? No, it is because the developed countries have adopted the method of fallow to maintain the soil fertility in order to protect the land. In order to solve the problem of food, China can only let the land rotate continuously and support it with chemical fertilizer, resulting in serious degradation of land fertility.

In the Construction Plan of Grain Collection, Storage and supply Security Project (2015-2020) issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Grain Administration and the Ministry of Finance, it was pointed out that since the beginning of the new century, China's grain production has achieved "11 consecutive increases". The conditions of grain circulation facilities have been improved, the emergency system has been gradually established, the ability of macro-control has been continuously strengthened, and a unified, open, competitive and orderly grain market system has been gradually improved. To lay a good foundation for the country's food security.

However, on the other hand, the domestic modern grain collection, storage and supply security system is far from being completed. With the increase of grain output and the change of supply and demand situation in our country, the contradictions such as insufficient grain storage capacity, great hidden danger in quality and safety, lag in grain monitoring and early warning, serious postpartum loss and waste have become increasingly prominent. National food supply security is still facing severe challenges.

Judging from the situation after the world food crisis, a world economic war without gunpowder has been carried out among different economies, and food has become one of the important strategic trump cards. General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed: "the ability to ensure grain supply is firmly built on ourselves and the rice bowl is firmly in our own hands." it is necessary to pay close attention to the construction of grain warehousing as a key work of agricultural infrastructure.