Analysis of Pig Price trend in 2019 and Forecast of Pork trend in the coming year

Many people are concerned about the pork price in 2019. After 2019, the pig price was transferred, and the overall trend of the national pig price remained stable from April to May, and then the price remained stable. Pork prices from the overall trend, the off-season is not light, but prices are rising, supply and demand is indeed relatively tight.

At the beginning of 2019, pig farming made a profit of Erhua, and the cash flow of many small and medium-sized retail investors was generally not good. Before the Spring Festival in 2019, the main producing areas experienced large and deep losses because farmers accelerated their selling. Among them, pig prices in Henan and Liaoning fell to 10.3 yuan / kg and 8.5 yuan / kg respectively before the Spring Festival, significantly lower than the national average price. If the full cost of 14 yuan / kg for retail investors is taken into account, the net interest rate of the immediate production area falls to-64.0% Mel 35.9%. This means that the losses before the Spring Festival are already unbearable for retail households. At the same time, taking into account the long time and depth of losses in the main producing areas since 2018, this will make the cash week of retail households face greater problems.

Pork price trend

In the context of the epidemic this year, the ability of farmers to fill hurdles is also restricted. When the price of pork begins to reverse and gradually approaches the cost of farmers, farmers begin to actively fill the fence, and the industry supply will pick up.

Stagflation in pig prices from April to May also weakened the performance of aquaculture stocks. From a fundamental point of view, we believe that pig price stagflation is only a change in rhythm, or understood as a postponement of the increase. On the one hand, the inventory activities of pig slaughtering enterprises include an inventory of more than 50,000 enterprises slaughtered annually before May 1, and other slaughtering enterprises before July 1, to a certain extent, squeeze the inventory of slaughtering enterprises into the market and suppress short-term prices; on the other hand, the epidemic in Guangdong and Guangzhou has intensified, the selling in the south has increased, and short-term supply has also increased. Looking forward, there will be an incentive to replenish stocks after the inventory decline of slaughtering enterprises, and the sell-off in the south means that there are no pigs to sell in the future, both of which will boost pig prices in the future.

Pork prices are likely to maintain current prices in the coming year, and may even fall slightly. Mainly because the state has introduced most of the pig policy, calling on farmers to raise pigs. With the support of the policy, many small and medium-sized retail investors began to raise pigs. With the increase of production, the supply of raw pork on the market increases, and the price may fall slightly.