At the end of the 13th five-year Plan, it is the top priority to increase the production capacity by 200 billion jin.

There is a grain shortfall of 200 billion jin at the end of the 13th five-year Plan.

Focus on the 13th five-year Plan

According to the forecast of experts, the demand for grain in China will be about 1.4 trillion jin by 2020, and there is still a shortfall of about 200 billion jin. It is necessary to steadily increase grain production capacity as the primary task to accelerate the transformation of the mode of agricultural development.

Our reporter Ding Jun reports from Beijing.

The situation of the increase of agricultural products inventory and the increase of imports may be improved in the 13th five-year Plan.

Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu pointed out in an article in People's Daily on November 25 that according to experts' forecasts, China's grain demand will be about 1.4 trillion jin by 2020, and there is still a shortfall of about 200 billion jin. It is necessary to steadily increase grain production capacity as the primary task to accelerate the transformation of the mode of agricultural development.

To this end, we will explore the implementation of a pilot rotation and fallow system of cultivated land to ensure "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of food rations." China needs to appropriately increase the import of agricultural products, strengthen the regulation and control of the import and export of agricultural products, grasp the scale and rhythm of the import of agricultural products, actively support the export of superior agricultural products, and achieve the effective allocation of domestic and foreign resources and the overall utilization of domestic and foreign markets.

The above-mentioned statement of "ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of food rations" has been stated in the proposal of the Central Committee's 13th five-year Plan.

This is different from the formulation of the "12th five-year Plan" proposal of the central government, such as "taking the protection of national food security as the primary goal" and "implementing the national plan for increasing grain production capacity by 100 billion jin."

In this regard, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Agriculture of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that although there is a gap in grain such as soybeans in China, grain and other crops are actually guaranteed. The current situation is that there is so much grain production that it is a problem to produce and store it. The next step is to allow part of the arable land to rotate and fallow. "judging from the future development trend, the consumption of rations will be less and less, and 800 million mu of high-standard farmland will be enough." He said.

Build 800 million mu of high-standard farmland

During the 13th five-year Plan period, no special emphasis was placed on increasing grain production. The 13th five-year Plan proposed that we should adhere to the strictest cultivated land protection system, adhere to the red line of cultivated land, implement the strategy of storing grain on the ground and storing grain in technology, increase grain production capacity, and ensure basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of food rations.

Han Changfu points out that at present, China's medium-and low-yield fields account for about 2, 3, and most of them still depend on heaven for a living. We will promote land renovation, the transformation of medium-and low-yield fields, and the construction of high-standard farmland on a large scale, and build 800 million mu of high-standard farmland by 2020.

In the next step, we should give full play to the guiding role of subsidy policies, carry out pilot projects of grain reform and feeding and planting and breeding, improve the system of interest compensation, cultivated land protection compensation and ecological compensation in major grain producing areas, and improve the effectiveness of agricultural subsidy policies.

Reform the price formation mechanism of agricultural products. We will pay attention to giving full play to the role of the market in forming prices, continue to implement the policy of minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat, improve the temporary procurement and storage policies for important agricultural products such as corn, do a good job in pilot projects for the target prices of soybeans and cotton, and actively carry out pilot projects for price insurance for agricultural products.

Li Ninghui, director of the Policy Office of the Institute of Agriculture of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out that there is a grain gap in China, which is mainly aimed at importing tens of millions of tons of soybeans and other agricultural products every year. There is a serious surplus of some varieties of grain as a staple grain, such as corn for a long time.

In fact, it is of little significance to simply expand the production of basic rations because of the limited warehousing capacity at present. The purpose of storing grain among the people is to allow farmers to store some grain, and the state can give some subsidies. "if there is a surplus of some varieties, then we can consider leaving some land fallow." He said.

At present, China's three staple grains include corn, rice and wheat. In 2014, China's rice and wheat output totaled 332 million tons, that is, rations totaled 1.33jin per person per day, meeting the basic needs.

The gap of non-staple grain can be adjusted by import.

Han Changfu pointed out in the article that grain production can be adjusted according to market demand, but grain production capacity must be consolidated and increased.

He pointed out that during the 13th five-year Plan period, more attention should be paid to the overall planning of two markets and two kinds of resources to improve the competitiveness of agriculture. We should appropriately increase the import of agricultural products according to domestic needs, strengthen the regulation and control of the import and export of agricultural products, grasp the scale and rhythm of the import of agricultural products, actively support the export of superior agricultural products, and achieve the effective allocation of domestic and foreign resources and the overall utilization of domestic and foreign markets.

This means that during the 13th five-year Plan period, after ensuring the safety of major grains and rations, part of the grain can be imported.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Agriculture of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that it is still necessary for China to import soybeans. Because the price in the international market is lower, 800 million mu of high-standard fertile land is enough to ensure the safety of domestic grain rations and grains.

In the face of the oversupply of corn, the next step to carry out grain feeding and planting and breeding model pilot, is to change part of the corn into cattle and sheep feed.

"judging from the current more than 2 billion mu of arable land, it is not a big problem to rest 100 million to 200 million mu of farmland every year, but this requires state finance to subsidize farmers. Considering that domestic grain prices are still on the high side, the state can solve the problem of grain surplus by giving more subsidies to farmers in the future, rather than by adjusting storage prices. " Li Guoxiang said.

According to reports, at present, the price of Thai rice landed along the coast is even cheaper than that of domestic rice, while the price of imported landed corn is even half of that of domestic rice. The domestic high-price temporary collection and storage of corn is about 1 yuan per jin, which makes the domestic corn processing enterprises bear a higher cost.

Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at Oriental Iger, pointed out that the next step should be to improve food productivity and create conditions for reducing excessively high agricultural costs.