"cheap" corn

"the formation of grain prices should be close to the market, while taking into account the legitimate income of farmers. This is a very important principle for forming China's grain prices in the future. " On November 4, Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the Central Rural work leading Group and director of the office, said at a press conference held by the State Information Office.

In the grain price reform, the adjustment of corn price is the most concerned at present. In September this year, the temporary storage price of corn, which has been in force for seven years, was lowered for the first time to 1 yuan per catty, 0.12-0.13 yuan lower than that of last year. The price of corn on the market has also dropped from more than one yuan last year to 70 or 80 cents per jin.

Since November, with the formal launch of temporary storage corn acquisition in northeast China and related meetings held frequently to release positive signals, the price of domestic corn market has rebounded slightly. However, as the agricultural product with the most serious contradiction between production, supply and marketing, it is still unlikely that its price will continue to rise.

The causes of the corn price adjustment are complicated. Chen Xiwen also said that five factors cause the current grain price situation to be complex. First, China's agriculture is not competitive enough; second, our protection policy makes grain prices continue to rise; third, international food prices fall; fourth, global energy prices fall; fifth, the strong exchange rate of RMB stimulates grain imports.

As the single crop with the largest planting area in China, in the grain field, the industrial chain of corn is the longest, and the impact of price adjustment, breadth and depth will be unprecedented.

However, "do not break, do not stand", the pain of reform is often accompanied by new life: the adjustment of the planting structure in the future, the active degree of the main body of the market, the healthy development of the corn industry, and even the changes of the whole rural relations of production, major changes are likely to take place as a result.

Inside and outside the customs, grain growers wait and see to cherish the sale.

On the fourth day after Frosts Descent, almost all the corn in Jilin had been harvested. Sitting on the train from Changchun to Siping, the uplifting slopes outside the window are full of traces pressed by the harvester, one by one, askew affixed to the land. Occasionally, several rows of corn stalks can be seen standing there.

In a red house not far from the village department of Balimiao Village, Lishu Town, Lishu County, Lu Wei, chairman of Lu Wei Agricultural Machinery Cooperative, is busy contacting the straw baler.

"it would be nice not to lose money this year. It just sold a little. It's only 75 cents. This year, the state collects 1 yuan and 14 first-class grain for water. Now ordinary people receive 30 water, deducting you 16 water, one water deduction 1 point 5, you do the math! " Lu Wei rubbed his frozen hands and then said, "even this year's harvest is not good. There is a drought. It would be nice to have a yield of 22,000 jin per hectare." If it had been last year, I would have called at least 245 thousand at a time. " In order to make up for the fall in corn prices, the cooperative plans to buy a straw baler and perhaps get some firewood money.

Lu Wei told reporters that the cooperative has been developing well since its establishment in 2011. coupled with the fact that ordinary people have brought land to join the cooperative, it has reached a scale of 460 hectares (hectares) this year. Everyone had expected to make some big money this year, but the fall in corn prices caught them by surprise.

"Last year, there was a net loss of 7,000 yuan, but this year we will have to pay a loss of 2,000 yuan. Last year, the price was good, the output was also high, and the land transfer fee was also high. The contract fee for a plot of land is 11,000 yuan, the seed fertilizer is 4,000 yuan, and the operation fee for pesticides and agricultural machinery, including 3,000 yuan for land preparation and farming, is 18,000 yuan. Last year, the people who contracted out the land made money. I didn't care about anything, and that part of the people made money. Those with pure land are designated to lose money! " Lu Wei said.

Lu Wei told the reporter that the corn in their cooperative was in no hurry to sell, but also wanted to wait for the price to see if there could be a change.

"now almost all the people in the village are watching. If there is a loan waiting to sell the corn to repay the money, it will be more nervous. " Lu Wei said: most of the individual corn sellers in the village go out to work, and no one is drying them at home. They are afraid to cover them for a long time, and if they are afraid of getting hit by a mouse, they sell them.

But it doesn't bother to put corn in your hand. It takes labor to dry and space to store grain. Now the co-operative has rented a warehouse in an old steel factory, which alone costs thousands of yuan.

It is clear that the fall in corn prices has affected more than just Lu Wei. After the temporary storage price adjustment this year, corn prices in the national market have generally fallen, including areas where temporary storage prices are not implemented in the customs: Shandong, Henan, and Hebei have also fallen to about 80 cents. As the largest food crop in China, many of the more than 200 million farmers across the country grow corn, which can be imagined.

At more than 5: 00 p.m. on October 23, the reporter met such a couple by the side of the road in Xinshe Village, Laoshe Central Community, Xiangshui County, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, when they were collecting dried corn kernels with two elderly helpers. More than 200 meters long drying ground, the eyes are full of golden corn.

The man's name is Liu Xuebiao. In early October, the more than 100 mu of corn they planted began to be harvested. Every day they began to be busy at dawn in the morning, and it was not over if it was not dark.

"I'm sure I won't make money this year. Not to mention a few months of working time. " Liu Xuebiao said that he had just sold more than 10,000 jin of corn at a price of 0.75 yuan per catty. Excluding the labor input of the couple tied to the field for several months, only taking into account the transfer of land fees and farming income, the more than 100 mu of corn barely broke even.

"the wheat has already been planted, and the transfer fee for next year will certainly be renegotiated. Everyone knows that I don't make any money on corn this year, so try to lower it." It was dark early in this season, and the countryside in northern Jiangsu was already cool, but Liu Xuebiao was still naked.

"it rained two days ago. I heard that the treasury in the northeast also began to collect grain, and the price on our side also went up. It can be sold for 2 cents more than when it was first collected. " On November 18, an old farmer in Qiaojiatun Village, Gaomi City, Shandong Province, told reporters that half a month back, only one or two of the peddlers' cars could be seen occasionally. The corn has been harvested for more than a month, and the village has sold 1/10 of it, and 2/3 of it has been sold in previous years. Seeing that it was about to freeze, the peddler was afraid that the grain collected would not be dry, so he put it in his hand.

Due to the proximity of Qingdao, nearby large and small feed processing plants many, but this year feed plants are not riveting enough in the harvest, farmers told reporters, may feel that prices will fall again, afraid of their own high.

"Dry grain is only 8 cents, last year when it was good, it sold for one yuan and two cents, and it fell by four cents, which is very good for farmers who grow grain. So they're all at home. We'll see what happens." The farmer told reporters that in the past two years, farming is expensive. Pesticides, fertilizers and agricultural machinery will cost more than ten yuan per mu of land. "Labor is expensive, and others will rise. This year, the price of mechanical sowing has increased by 5 yuan, and that of mechanical cultivation has increased by 5 yuan. Corn is cheap, right? Feed isn't cheap. The chicken feed I bought costs 2 yuan a catty, which is corn, soybean meal, bran and so on."

From "Abandoning wasteland and planting trees" to "opening up wasteland and planting grain"

"My home is in the northeast, on the Songhua River, where there are soybeans and sorghum all over the mountains..." This popular song once aroused the yearning of many people for the northeast countryside, but now come to this black land, we can see more green corn stalks, as well as golden corn after harvest.

Even so, there is a process for people to change their planting habits. An old farmer in Lishu County told reporters that about ten years ago, there was a time when corn prices were also very low."What do ordinary people grow, millet, sorghum and wheat?" At that time, grain was worthless and there was no protection price, so the common people did not value the land. Abandoned, planted, everything."

In order to protect the interests of farmers and prevent "cheap grain harming farmers", the state introduced the corn temporary storage policy in 2008, and farmers 'enthusiasm for planting corn has been continuously improved. "Later, the corn was sold for 1 yuan, and the people took the land seriously. All those near the forest belt and those near the ditch have been cleared up. Nobody used to care." said the old farmer.

Take Lishu County as an example, the corn area has expanded a lot in these years. The cultivated land of the whole county is 3.98 million mu. At present, 80% and 90% of the plots are planted with corn. "Originally, soybeans accounted for a certain proportion, but now soybeans are basically gone." Lishu County agricultural technology extension station director Wang Guiman told reporters.

The sown area of corn in the whole country is also increasing year by year. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, China's corn planting area was less than 30 million hectares in 2007, and this number has increased to more than 37 million last year. Especially in Northeast China, under the impact of imported soybeans, the area of domestic soybeans has been greatly reduced, and most of the land vacated has been planted with corn.

At the same time, all kinds of favorable factors in production have been brought into play. Climate, policy, science and technology, yield is high. It is understood that in the past 10 years, China's corn output has increased by 5.2% annually, with a cumulative increase of 65% in 10 years. Ten years ago, China's corn output was 130 million tons per year, while the corn output in the past two years has been above 210 million tons.

At the same time, inventories are increasing. Xi Yinsheng, chief analyst of corn industry chain information analysis of the Ministry of Agriculture and director of Macroeconomic Research Office of Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, told reporters that more than 30 million tons were temporarily stored in 2012-2013, nearly 70 million tons in 2013-2014, and more than 80 million tons in 2014-2015. In three years, 180 million tons have been collected, and so far only more than 30 million tons have been sold, with a surplus of 150 million tons.

Domestic corn harvest at the same time, international corn is also in surplus, and prices have been falling. U.S. corn has fallen from more than $8 a bushel in 2012 to less than $4 today. In less than three years, the price has fallen by more than half.

Domestic corn prices have been rising all the way because of temporary reserve protection. Since 2008, the price of corn temporary storage has risen from 74 cents at the beginning to 1 yuan and 13 cents last year, reaching an all-time high. Shandong and other places last year on the market circulation of corn even sold to 1 yuan 4 cents a catty high price.

At this point, the temporary storage mechanism aimed at avoiding low grain prices and harming farmers began to appear "obstruction". Because from this moment on, the temporary reserve is no longer the bottom of the market price, but the upside down price difference between imported and domestic corn.

Data from customs show that in 2010 China's corn imports began to surge, from 84,000 tons in 2009 to 1.573 million tons. Since then, it has risen for three consecutive years, reaching a maximum of 5.2 million tons in 2012. Although it has declined in recent years, it has also remained above 2.5 million tons.

Feet voting for raw material demand is not just between domestic corn and imported corn. Since corn has quota restrictions, sorghum, barley and cassava do not, many enterprises import these substitutes.

According to the State Grain and Oil Information Center, in the first quarter of 2015, China imported 5.32 million tons of sorghum, DDGS (distiller's grain protein feed) and barley, up 85% year-on-year. In 2014/15, the import volume statistics reached 8.5 million tons, 4.5 million tons and 7 million tons respectively, totaling 20 million tons for the three major varieties, which is estimated to replace 14.33 million tons of corn.

"In fact, it is also an impact on the domestic corn industry." Xi Yinsheng said,"Plus we have so much inventory, and we can't sell it, because the price is too high, and the company can't accept it." That forces price adjustments because you can't keep going like that forever."

A giant indigestion stomach

On the afternoon of October 28, on the street of Shijiapuzi Town, where grain processing enterprises in Lishu County are relatively concentrated, occasionally several large trucks carrying corn can be seen, and some crushed corn grains are scattered sparsely on the ground.

This is the season to open the warehouse and collect grain, but most enterprises are still in the state of production suspension and semi-production suspension. The scene of foreign traders setting up points to purchase corn has not been seen, and the whole processing zone and countryside seem a little deserted.

In the warehouse of Xintian Dragon Wine Industry, several workers were shoveling corn from big trucks. Several vendors stood beside them chatting, waiting for money.

"We opened the scale on October 19, when it was 1860 yuan a ton, 14 water, and now it is 1840. 30 water is 7.3 cents 7.5 cents." Wang Shaogui, director of the new Tianlong acquisition office, told reporters that their company produces anhydrous alcohol, the main raw material is corn, three tons of corn can produce one ton of alcohol, a year can digest 900,000 tons of corn.

"the price of corn is much cheaper than last year. Last year, the highest opening of the scale was 2200 yuan per ton, while this stage was roughly between 2150 and 2160 in the same period. " Wang Shaogui said, "although the cost is lower now, the price of the product is also lower." We produce alcohol, and another by-product is feed, DDGS, which is only sold for 1250 to 1300 yuan a ton and 2600 at a good time last year. Otherwise, why many enterprises have closed down! "

Wang Shaogui, who has been dealing with corn acquisitions all the year round, has a better understanding of the situation in the market. "for deep processing in areas like North China and Shandong, there is enough local grain," he told reporters. So trade can't be done now. Now that part of the trade has gone, the breeding industry has that piglet feed. Piglets, like people eating milk powder, must use part of the new grain, and it is high-quality grain, and some traders do this. "

Because corn prices hang upside down, large quantities of trade scenes have been lost in pear trees in recent years. "it costs about 150 yuan a ton to transport corn from the northeast to North China, not to mention that you are still hanging upside down. At present, Shandong only collects more than 1700 yuan a ton. What the common people say is' there is no seam'. You have no price difference and cannot do trade. " Wang Shaogui said.

From starch used in ham sausages to raw materials for extracting monosodium glutamate, to glucose and alcohol. Nowadays, corn is more widely used, and it is no longer a bad and wretched era. So how much corn can we digest in a year?

Xi Yinsheng told reporters that according to all kinds of consumption, the annual domestic corn consumption is about 180 million tons. Compared with the production capacity of 210 million tons, there will be an increase of 30 to 40 million tons in each of these years. The reason why various contradictions are so outstanding this year is also related to the overall economic situation.

In the field of grain, the industrial chain of corn is the longest, and the space of added value is relatively large. However, it is precisely because of the large space, so the flexibility is also great, and the impact of the economic situation is more obvious.

Xi Yinsheng told reporters that before 2012, the situation of corn supply and demand is basically balanced, slightly tight. But since 2013, with the macroeconomic downturn, demand for corn has come down. At this time, corn is still increasing production, so the whole relationship between supply and demand has changed obviously, and there is a serious periodic oversupply.

"A large part of corn is used for feed consumption, which is closely related to the development of animal husbandry as a whole. In recent years, affected by the bird flu epidemic, and pigs happen to be at the trough of the fluctuating cycle, the demand for corn in the feed industry has gradually declined due to the superposition of two factors. " Xi Yinsheng said that the consumer demand for corn deep processing is more closely related to the economy. Corn deep processing has about thousands of products, many of which are used for industrial purposes, and many are directly used in the food sector. At present, this part of the demand is also significantly shrinking.

Insufficient consumption, coupled with the impact of foreign corn and corn processing products, the life of domestic corn processing enterprises is also difficult.

From 2013 to 2015, when corn stocks were growing, the corn processing industry was also reshuffling, with some small companies shutting down production for several years and some large ones holding on. Industry experts said that judging from the current operating rate, the national corn deep processing industry has at least 40% overcapacity, and in the next step, some enterprises will be eliminated and merged, and the industry has entered an accelerated period of integration.

A chain reaction caused by a grain of corn

Corn prices have come down, the environment is different, and everyone and every link needs to be reconsidered.

"if you make money, you can spend more! I thought I would buy a car to drive when I finished packing and selling rice this year. If you look at it this way, come on, let's ride a motorcycle! " When the reporter was interviewing in Lishu County, a young farmer in a green cotton coat told the reporter.

The green cotton-padded overcoat was wrapped hard and ruffled on the edge of the wall. "Why isn't the burden heavy for young people?" When the old man is old, he can't work, so he can plant some land. If the food is no longer valuable, what source of income can he rely on? And children, how much do children have to spend year after year? You have to keep it up, too. what can you do? Just strangle some flowers. "

There is still a long way to go between now and next year's production. We still don't know what the price of corn will be, and Lu Wei is not sure.

"now that we are talking about a lot of corn, what should we grow? We have been growing corn in this place, but there are very few soybeans, but there is no sorghum, and then we plant some rice. Although the price of this piece of corn is low, it is easy to sell grain, at least there is a place to harvest it. "

Lu Wei said that they were going to do some deep processing, grow some green products, and then squeeze some soybean oil. "the oil production rate of our beans is low, but the price can be higher when it reaches green. Like the wheat mill we planted this year, it costs 10 yuan per jin, and it sells well. Now ordinary people also attach importance to their own health, as we say 'safety on the tip of the tongue'. " "Land contract fees will definitely be lower next year," Lu said. "

Li Fengyu, chairman of Renfa Modern Agricultural Machinery Professional Cooperative in Keshan County, Qiqihar City, Heilongjiang Province, also told reporters that they will not plant ordinary corn next year except for special varieties.

The Renfa Co-operative has planted 36000 mu of corn and has had a good harvest this year, with an average of 1400 jin per mu of land. "Last year, we began to adjust our planting structure, planting some potatoes, soybeans and mixed beans, turning green and organic, including sweet corn and waxy corn." Li Fengyu said, "I want to expand the planting next year and plant some efficient crops such as vegetables."

Li Fengyu said: in the process of adjusting the planting structure, they also want to do something for industrialization, but there are still some difficulties to overcome.

"for example, when we grow potatoes and process them, we need warehousing and equipment; for example, when we engage in animal husbandry and grow silage corn, we need silage cellars and barns for cattle. The most important thing is water conservancy, no matter what you grow, there is no shortage of infrastructure construction, this is the key. " Li Fengyu said.

Pan Longtian, deputy director of the Committee of Agriculture of Xiangshui County, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, also told reporters that according to their knowledge, the planting area of wheat in Xiangshui County has not decreased this year, and there has been no abandonment due to low grain prices. The key now is how to speed up structural adjustment and let farmers know what can be replanted next year.

"at present, the benefit of rice cultivation is still good, but it is very difficult to change the cornfield into rice. At present, the county is guiding farmers to develop efficient planting and breeding industries, adjusting the management mechanism to carry out co-farming and co-planting, organizing straw crushing and returning to the field to improve soil fertility to reduce chemical fertilizer input, and using large-scale operation and green production to reduce farmers' grain production costs. " Pan Longtian said.

The knock-on effect of falling corn prices continues to ferment.

When the reporter was interviewing in Balimiao Village, Lishu County, he met such a farmer. His name is Lu Jiang, with a small corncob in his hand, he hurriedly came to find Lu Wei.

"this year is nonsense. You see, this is the only big small rice in my family this year. I didn't join the club. " Lu Jiang said, "our brains are old now, and our technology is not as new as that of other people's co-operatives."

Lujiang family of six people, growing more than two land, is a relatively typical retail investor. He told the reporter that the corn variety he chose this year was not good either. Compared with last year, he had to reduce the yield by 6,000 to 7,000 jin.

"other people's co-operatives are seeds directly taken by manufacturers, but we are still the seeds of the past." Lu Jiang said, "Last year, I called 26,000 at a stroke. This year, one is that the variety is not selected, the medicine is not given right, and we have given birth to worms. If another one falls down, our breed is not resistant to the wind, and as soon as it becomes strong, it is shaken down. "

Lujiang had red circles under his eyes. He said that in the first few years he felt that he had cultivated the land very carefully. When he looked at it this year, he was discouraged.

"now the price of corn is only more than 70 cents, which is nothing compared to that of last year. Last year, it had to be as low as 1 yuan. There's nothing to do today. I came for a walk. I said no, I have to join the club this year. " Lu Jiang said.

Lu Jiang's idea provides evidence for the views of Wang Guiman, director of the Agricultural Bureau of Lishu County. Wang Guiman believes that the fall in corn prices this year is not all a bad thing, but may still be an opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of agriculture.

"Why do you say that? On the one hand, for the common people who farm the land, it must have a greater impact. Processing enterprises can have the opportunity to enter the market competition. Another point is that agriculture may develop in a more large-scale direction. " Wang Guiman said that in the case of supporting the market, the farmers earned a lot from their own land, and he did not want to give it to others. The scale operation of land is a process of restriction.

Wang Guiman has always been concerned about the changes in the countryside. He said that over the years, many high-quality people in the village have gone out either to study or to do business. The rest of these farmers have to do whatever they want, technology is good, and management is still good, which is quite difficult.

"there is still a division of labor in our economic development." Wang Guiman said that although corn prices have fallen this year, those large households and cooperatives that have contracted land at high levels will suffer greater losses. But now, these new business entities, their specialized division of labor is still much better than a single family.

"some engage in agricultural machinery and some engage in sales, at least there is a relative division of labor." Wang Guiman said, "the price of corn has come down this year, and because there are few plots of land, the unit efficiency is low, so it is possible to give up the land and hand it over to large families. What does the tycoon think now? Through integration, because there may be no benefit in one or two plots, there may be some benefits in five plots, and there may be considerable profits in ten hectares. From this point of view, it is an accelerated process to promote the scale operation of land. Of course, it is not necessary to transfer land, land can still belong to farmers, but social services are unified, production standards are unified, and only through this standardization can we enter the market. "

People are the most active factor in productivity. Wang Guiman told reporters that in the past, working in Lishu for 10 yuan or 20 yuan a day, now 100 yuan, 200 yuan, or even 300 yuan, labor costs have changed a lot.

"in recent years, the development of mechanization, science and technology has been very rapid, and great changes have taken place in the structure of rural areas, but in terms of production relations, it is still a 'small-scale peasant economy'. This kind of relations of production obviously lags behind the development level of the productive forces. " Wang Guiman believes that the adjustment of corn prices may accelerate the process of change.

We do not know whether there will be a round of changes in rural production relations, as Wang Guiman predicted. What is certain is that after the price falls, everyone in the corn industry chain will calculate an account in mind and make their own choice. And this choice will be transmitted to the whole industrial chain in different ways, and then spread to the whole consumer market.

The impact is far from over.

As the reporter saw in Lishu County, it was about to freeze, but there were few farmers who fell to the ground in the countryside. What kind of seeds will be sown on this black land in the coming year? We won't know until next spring.