It is the right time for farmers with high rice prices in Northeast China to sell grain.

After a year of hard farming, golden ears of rice represent the joy of a bumper harvest. Selling grain at a good price is the best wish of all farmers. According to the relevant national statistics, among the planting benefits of various varieties of grain in 2015, the planting benefit of rice is the best, especially the northeast rice has been showing a steady and rising trend since it was put on the market. Up to now, it has been about a month for rice storage in Northeast China. In this month, supported by the national storage policy, the price of rice in Northeast China has remained high compared with that of indica rice in the south.

The reason for the stable and strong rice price in Northeast China lies in: on the one hand, farmers have a higher expectation of the minimum protection price of 1.55 yuan / jin for late japonica rice, and they hold a wait-and-see attitude. On the other hand, as this year is the first year of the implementation of the provincial governor responsibility system for national food security, the criteria for rice storage are stricter than in previous years. At the beginning of the market, the profits among traders were lower than those in previous years, and under the background of farmers' high prices and sparing sales, they had to increase their prices in the later stage. According to statistics, as of November 15, various grain enterprises in Heilongjiang and other seven major producing areas had purchased a total of 12.64 million tons of new japonica rice, an increase of 530000 tons over the same period last year. The author believes that under the premise that the State Reserve has become the dominant acquisition of rice, this is a favorable time to sell grain for the following three reasons.

The acquisition time of the State Reserve has been advanced for the first time.

In previous years, the policy of supporting the rice market in Northeast China was launched in early November, but the start time in 2015 was advanced to October 10, about 20 days earlier than in previous years. By late November, for example, in Heilongjiang, the task of rice collection and storage in grain depots has been more than half, and the storage capacity in some areas is full. Or it has turned to corn. At the same time, farmers in some producing areas will also face the problem of loan repayment at the end of November, so if farmers sell their surplus grain centrally, the market supply pressure will increase, which is bound to affect the weakening of rice prices.

Rice is strong and weak, suppressing the willingness of rice enterprises to hoard grain.

Since the implementation of the minimum protective price policy for rice, it is intended to prevent cheap grain from harming farmers, so as to ensure national food security. The policy has been implemented for 12 years, which indirectly promotes the processing cost of rice and gradually derails from the marketization of raw grain. From the point of view of rice enterprises, it can be said that they are living in a gap. In addition, China's rice processing industry is in a downturn, and some enterprises have been operating at a loss in order to survive for a long time. In 2015, raw grain procurement, more take-as-you-go processing, coinciding with low prices and a small amount of reserve strategy. Some rice enterprises have also said that this year's liquidity is tighter than in previous years, and it is difficult for the Agricultural Development Bank to make loans. Therefore, once the task of collecting and storing the State Reserve is completed in the future, relying solely on the acquisition strength of rice enterprises, the upward space for rice prices is limited. At the same time, as farmers, storage costs not only increase, under the influence of rainfall, snow and other adverse weather during the northeast rice harvest this year, once poor storage, rice quality changes, will also drag down rice prices in a steady decline.

The price difference of rice between the south and the north widens, and it is difficult to ship rice in the later stage.

Near the end of the year, under normal circumstances, most rice enterprises will increase their horsepower for all-round production. However, in the market of "strong rice and weak rice" and poor peak season, the future rice market is not optimistic. Especially in Jiangsu Province, which also belongs to japonica rice, due to the influence of weather and rice quality deviation, the rice price is 0.1-0.2 yuan / jin lower than that in the same period of previous years, and the mainstream ex-factory price in the market is only 1.88-1.95 yuan / jin, which is close to 0.3 yuan / jin compared with the ordinary round grain rice in Northeast China. The price advantage may make Jiangsu rice impact northeast rice, and the phenomenon of poor shipment of northeast rice enterprises will become more and more serious in the future. The demand for rice will also weaken. According to the author, this week, some rice enterprises in Northeast China due to the slowdown in rice shipments, rice enterprises have reduced the price of round rice by 0.02-0.03 yuan / jin.

To sum up: although northeast rice will not fall off the cliff after the end of wheat storage, in terms of the form of storage, the author believes that this is a more reasonable time for farmers to sell grain. If the country has full storage, the market lacks strong support. Rice prices, on the basis of stability, do not rule out the phenomenon of traders withdrawing from the market and rice enterprises buying at a low price, which suppresses the rice price and makes the price go down in the later period.