Domestic rapeseed oil loses market share

Up to now, the rape harvest in Hubei and other places this year has been completed. Due to the low opening price of newly produced rapeseed, farmers are unwilling to sell, and oil factories are also unwilling to raise prices for acquisition and processing, which makes domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal unable to supply the market in large quantities, leading to changes in the market share of the three major domestic vegetable oil markets. Among them, soybean oil and palm oil occupy a dominant position in the market and become "protagonists", while rape oil gradually withdraws from the mainstream market and becomes a "supporting role".

So, what impact will the differentiation of vegetable oil suppliers bring to the market? Can this differentiation last?

Jin Zutan, a researcher on rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in Hubei Grain and Oil Group, told reporters that the total output of rapeseed in Hubei Province is estimated to have dropped by 3% Rose 5% this year, and the total output of rapeseed in other domestic producing areas has also declined. if you take into account the reduction in the amount of imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the market share of rapeseed, especially domestic rapeseed, will lose a lot due to the decline in supply. It is understood that the rapeseed yield per unit area in most parts of Hubei Province this year has reached a new high in recent years, but due to a large decline in rapeseed acreage, the total rapeseed production has declined.

"this year, there has been a major adjustment in the rapeseed collection and storage policy, the rapeseed purchase market has been completely market-oriented, and the processing and sale of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal have also been liberalized. In this context, farmers, oil factories and traders are all acting in accordance with the laws of the market. " Wan Yuehong, general manager of Jiangxi Derun Oil Co., Ltd., analyzed that the market price of rapeseed is low, and farmers are reluctant to sell newly produced rapeseed. If the purchase price does not rise in the later period, and the income of farmers will be damaged, then farmers will not plant or grow less rapeseed in the next crop year, and the market position of domestic rapeseed oil will decline rapidly. There is no profit in processing domestic rapeseed, and if the processed products-rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal-are expensive and cannot be sold, oil factories will not buy rapeseed, or simply stop production. Eventually, the number of enterprises mainly processing domestic rapeseed will be greatly reduced, until it disappears. If traders and other market entities do not have the opportunity to enter the market, they will leave this market for a long time to operate something else, and the market activity of domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal will decline.

At the same time, Wan Yuehong believes that the lack of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal supply will trigger a series of reactions in the market, and the most direct impact will damage the overall market position of the domestic rapeseed industry and boost the prices of other oils and meals.

In Jin Zutan's view, compared with the income of farmers planting rapeseed and other crops, due to the fact that the price of rapeseed this year has dropped by nearly 1 yuan per jin compared with that of last year, it is not cost-effective for farmers to grow rapeseed. It is estimated that a large number of phenomena such as farmers changing oil and wheat in rape-producing areas will appear in the future. The decline in the amount of domestic rapeseed oil is long-term, and the market position will continue to be weakened.

As the market is worried that the emergence of El Ni ñ o weather will affect the global vegetable oil production, the current bullish mood of the domestic and foreign oil market is high, and the domestic vegetable oil market is in a bullish atmosphere. However, from the market situation of various oil varieties, the decline of palm oil production pressure in the international market and the decline of final inventory make it the leader of oil market price rise. Although the fundamentals of the soybean oil market are slightly poor, they also stand out in the recent rise in domestic oil prices.

Liu Jin, senior analyst of futures oil, believes that compared with the performance of palm oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil tends to have a sudden market, which is not consistent with other oil prices. The order of the price of the three major oils is palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil.