Cold thinking under the fever of rural e-commerce: don't think that there is a blue sea everywhere.

Under the background of "Internet +", traditional agriculture is being redefined. With the help of the policy, the industrial and commercial capital targeting this blue ocean has gone to the countryside one after another, especially with Lenovo, Evergrande and other large enterprises crossing the border, agriculture has become a hot field of investment.

As for capital going to the countryside, Gao Haiyan, vice president and director of the academy, said in an interview with China Business Daily that this is a good thing. It can bring not only funds for rural areas, but also the thinking, knowledge, experience and resources of industrialization, which is precisely what China's agriculture lacks most.

This year's Central Committee document No. 1 proposed to vigorously support e-commerce, logistics, finance and other enterprises to participate in the construction of agriculture-related e-commerce platform and carry out a comprehensive demonstration of e-commerce in rural areas. During the two sessions, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council said that it is necessary to stand in the tuyere of "Internet +" to comply with the trend. In May, the State Council issued opinions to actively develop rural e-commerce and put forward specific measures.

A few days ago, according to a report in the Shanghai Securities News on May 21, the first draft of the "guidance on speeding up the Development of Rural E-commerce" led by the Ministry of Commerce and attended by more than 20 ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Agriculture, has been completed. at present, it is at the signing stage of the ministerial committee, and the final document will be issued in the form of a document issued by the State Office.

This is the first document to fully deploy the development of rural e-commerce. Agricultural material service will be the focus of rural e-commerce policy in the future. The "Internet +" strategy at the national level has emerged.

The Blue Ocean of Agricultural products E-commerce

In modern society, online shopping has become a consumption habit. E-commerce is essentially a means.

Gao Haiyan said that this is the process transformation of consumption and market transactions by Internet technology, and the transformation process is irreversible and will become the norm in every field. Where there is a transaction, there is e-commerce, which is the future of e-commerce.

There is no doubt that e-commerce intervention in rural areas, "industrial products to the countryside" and "agricultural products to the cities" have played a role in improving farmers' living standards and increasing their income. Gao Haiyan said that this effect of "de-intermediation" can promote "fair trade" in the field of agricultural products, turning the traditional circulation market into "going to the middle and returning benefits to both sides."

Due to the huge population base, the improvement of Internet penetration and the improvement of logistics infrastructure, rural areas will soon become a potential online shopping market and online trading market for agricultural and sideline products.

According to the rural e-commerce consumption report released by Ali Research Institute, the proportion of rural online shopping on Taobao is still low, accounting for 8.6% in 2013, but showing a growth trend. The rural online shopping market is expected to reach more than 180 billion in 2014 and 460 billion in 2016.

In addition, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce in the first half of 2014, the total transaction volume of China's agricultural products is about 4 trillion yuan, but only 1% of agricultural products are circulated through e-commerce. The sales profits of a large number of agricultural and sideline products are seized by the circulation link. This outlines a blueprint for the e-commerce of agricultural products.

In April this year, the 2014-2015 China Agricultural products E-commerce Development report (hereinafter referred to as the "report") was released, which pointed out that the e-commerce of agricultural products has become a new hot spot after books, clothing and 3C, and is regarded as the crown of e-commerce. Among them, fresh e-commerce is called "the crown on the crown".

According to the report, the sales of agricultural products on China's largest e-commerce platform increased from 3.7 billion yuan in 2010 to more than 80 billion yuan last year, with an average annual growth rate of 112.15%. According to statistics, in 2014, there were 31000 agricultural e-commerce enterprises in China, of which 4000 were agriculture-related e-commerce, and Alibaba and JD.com, as the two largest e-commerce companies, occupied more than 80% of the market share.

The destructive Innovation of "Internet + Agriculture"

According to the 2011 Urban Blue Book issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the size of China's urban middle-income class grew at an average annual rate of 3.8% from 2000 to 2009, and by 2009 it had reached 230 million, accounting for nearly 40% of the total urban population. It is predicted that this number will reach about 47% by 2020.

In a public speech in 2013, Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the academic Commission of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the next 20 years, the number of people in China's middle class will increase from 230 million to 630 million. Such a large group of consumers, they are willing to buy high-quality products, high-quality service and high-quality human capital. These changes will force enterprises to invest in innovation, creativity and creativity.

Wei Sanshui, founder of Big Food Network, told China Business Daily that industrialization and urbanization are the background of the times, and the rural population is moving to the city. In the future, the rise of more than 600 million urban middle class will provide opportunities for enterprises that provide "top goods". "Internet + Agriculture" means that agriculture needs destructive innovation and must shift from product logic to industrial logic.

The big food network was established in June 2014. This is an e-commerce website for agricultural products focusing on healthy, green, organic rice noodles, miscellaneous grains and other healthy staples. Wei Sanshui said that Big Food innovates in four aspects.

One is to redefine rice noodle grains as fresh food.

If the one-time storage time is too long, the moisture of the food will be lost, which can not guarantee the freshness of the ingredients. Big food is made fresh home. What is stored in the production base is the harvested rice, which is shelled according to the number of homes allocated by household users each month. To ensure freshness, it takes 8 days to reach the user. The packaging of rice chooses small bags to ensure that customers can finish it within a month.

Second, from the business model, big food to sell "top goods", take the boutique route.

Unlike many e-commerce companies, which choose the store model and pursue large and comprehensive, and attract users through price leverage, big food is mainly made around the family's staple food table, while rice noodle grains are paired with some ingredients, selling only scarce and high-quality products. Because "the dividend of good quality and low price is gone."

Third, from the channel choice, choose the new e-commerce mode of O2M. O2M is the refined market scope of O2O, that is, the combination of online e-commerce and mobile Internet. Through cooperation with banks, finance, home appliances and other major customers to solve 2B, 2C problems, and finally serve the quality of life of family users. More importantly, in order to achieve "from the origin to the family dining table", we must find out who is the closest to the family dining table, and cooperation with B-end companies such as household electrical appliances is undoubtedly one of the best choices at the moment.

Fourth, user mode. Big food mixed B2C model, house distribution model and customized agricultural model, "no model is better than there is a model".

Wei Sanshui said that now the biggest pain of the mobile terminal is choice. Should tell the consumer directly, this is the cutting-edge goods, this is enough. And the human stomach is very difficult to be easily changed, once recognized, it is difficult to accept similar products. In the initial stage of building a trust relationship with users, others rely on price, we rely on products.

Rural e-commerce should be grounded for the benefit of the people.

According to media reports, New Hope, Big Beinong, Stanley, Kim Jong-da and other A-share listed companies are all laying out "Internet + Agriculture". On May 18, China's largest agricultural and animal husbandry enterprises hope to carry out in-depth industrial chain cooperation with the agricultural product B2B trading platform one mu of farmland, and join hands in the layout of agricultural product e-commerce market.

In addition to professional agricultural enterprises, non-agricultural enterprises cross the border is also seen as a huge investment opportunity. The reason lies in the huge population base in China, large-scale and intensive has become the basic policy guidance for the development of modern agriculture, which provides very favorable conditions for the entry of industrial capital. In addition, people pay more and more attention to food safety, and the demand for high-quality agricultural products is increasing.

From the point of view of the whole agricultural industry chain, the current investment hotspots are mainly concentrated in the two ends of the "smile curve", which is also the part with relatively high profits. Specifically, including the upstream provenance, high-end agricultural technology, agricultural equipment, high-end pesticides, as well as downstream circulation and sales links.

A few days ago, as the first comprehensive agriculture-related e-commerce trading platform in China, Diandou agricultural chain e-commerce service platform, through the establishment of "one village, one station" intelligent agricultural service station, innovative service model. Liu Feng, chairman of Diandou, said in an interview with China Business Daily that "Internet + Agriculture" is to solve the pain points of farmers. Rural e-commerce should be approachable, benefit farmers and solve the problems that farmers really need.

So what is the pain point for farmers? At present, farmers encounter two major difficulties, which are mainly related to too many intermediate links. First, agricultural materials such as pesticides and fertilizers, these rigid demand means of production, after layers of price increase cost is too high; second, native products and other agricultural products, after layers of exploitation, farmers in the upstream production link are actually at the end of the value chain.

Liu Feng said: to solve the pain points of farmers, it is necessary to reduce the prices of agricultural materials, raise the prices of agricultural products, and improve farmers' expertise in agricultural technology. The e-commerce service platform of Diandou agricultural chain, relying on the advantage of self-built logistics, directly establishes intelligent agricultural service stations at the village level to create an agricultural chain e-commerce service platform in which agricultural materials products go directly from manufacturers to farmers and agricultural and sideline products from origin to consumers.

In addition, the intelligent service station can also partially solve the problem of rural logistics. He said that the service platform will develop corresponding systems, and service stations will integrate rural transport resources as a whole, solve the problem of information asymmetry among farmers through instant messaging, and let service stations provide services for farmers to solve the problem of picking up and carrying goods. This reduces logistics costs.

Relying on Agricultural big data, the service platform will also provide financial services for farmers. After farmers register as members, the platform will evaluate the information of their registered members, calculate them according to their usual spending power, and then consider providing loans. This is also guaranteed because it is supported by data.

It is worth noting that according to the "report" statistics, at present, only 1% of the domestic agriculture-related transaction e-commerce can make a profit, 7% have huge losses, 88% have a slight loss, and 4% are flat. The most typical problem in the development of agricultural e-commerce is homogenized competition. It leads to disorderly competition, loss-making operation, and the coexistence of building and closing stations. In addition, the high logistics cost is also a prominent problem.

In this regard, Wei Sanshui said that the e-commerce of agricultural products is still in a state of just layout. There are profits and losses in any industry. At present, only 1% of the agricultural products e-commerce profit, which precisely shows that the agricultural products e-commerce real commercial model and road innovation is not enough, has not yet built a mature profit model. However, "it is worth trying to subdivide the strong relationship market by the logic of the industry."

Gao Haiyan said that generally speaking, the profit of agricultural e-commerce is not a problem.

First, unlike the traditional model, agricultural e-commerce from scratch, it takes time to establish a conceptual market, promote transactions online, change traditional habits, and form economies of scale. Therefore, it does not mean that agricultural e-commerce cannot make a profit, but it takes time to make a profit.

Second, different business models have different profit cycles. For example, in a platform business model, scale may be more important in the short term, so not making a profit may be a short-term strategy, not because it is not profitable.

She said that some e-commerce companies themselves are unable to make a profit because of their own positioning and operational capacity problems. For example, some product e-commerce, third-party channel e-commerce (especially B2C). Because the value of agricultural products is low and the logistics cost is high, it is difficult to make a profit if the customer unit price is not high.

"but it's just the beginning, and it's not time to come to a conclusion." Gao Haiyan thinks.

Cold thinking under the craze of rural e-commerce

Riding on the east wind of policy, today, rural e-commerce is in full swing. From the prime minister to the village head, all levels are talking about e-commerce and engaging in e-commerce. However, the problem of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in China has existed for a long time, to what extent can the blooming e-commerce industrial parks solve this chronic disease?

Wei Sanshui believes that "Internet +" makes producers and consumers equal, and upstream producers are respected. In the past, it was just yearning, not participation. Affectionate, no action. How can this be called a push? Now, rural e-commerce gives agricultural stakeholders unlimited possibilities of spatial connection and spatial extension.

On January 23 this year, the Poverty Alleviation Office of the State Council is promoting the implementation of ten major projects for accurate poverty alleviation. As a new means and new method, e-commerce has attracted much attention. A few days ago, qu Tianjun, an inspector of the Department of International Cooperation and Social Poverty Alleviation of the Poverty Alleviation Office of the State Council, said at a news conference that e-commerce to help the poor, as the name implies, is to bring "Internet +" into the poverty alleviation system. He said that e-commerce is actually a means, poverty alleviation is the goal.

He Yong, a doctor from Guilin Institute of Aviation Technology, told China Business Daily that rural e-commerce provides a new perspective and possibility for solving the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. Through the reverse force mechanism of e-commerce development, we can speed up infrastructure construction, promote the pace of poverty-stricken villages to get rid of poverty and become rich, and improve the self-hematopoietic ability of poor areas. For example, the model of "peasant household + company + network" is extending rapidly, greatly changing the traditional agricultural economy and industrial form, and changing the production and life style of the local people.

For e-commerce craze, Li Changping called it the "great leap forward in rural e-commerce", which should be "poured some cold water" on it. He said that if e-commerce cannot solve the two problems of ineffective rural financial supply and ineffective organizational supply, rural e-commerce is only a new great leap forward.

Li Changping is now the president of the China Rural Construction Institute and a researcher of the China Economic system Reform Research Association. In 2000, he, a former party committee secretary of Qipan Township in Jianli County, Hubei Province, wrote to Zhu Rongji, then premier of the State Council, saying, "Peasants are really bitter, rural areas are really poor, and agriculture is really dangerous!"

For Lenovo, Evergrande and other large enterprises across the border, Wei Sanshui said that doing rural e-commerce should not just plunder rural agricultural products. What's more, we should redefine the industry. From the existing product logic to industrial logic as soon as possible to promote the development of agriculture. If you want to do a good job in e-commerce of agricultural products, you should have something to do and what not to do.

As for the bottleneck in the development of rural e-commerce, he believes that, first, the participation of capital is still not enough, it is necessary to jump out of the logic that farmers are difficult to deal with, agricultural investment cycle is long, the risk is high, and the rate of return is unstable; second, the innovation of the industry itself is not enough, mainly because agricultural products need to be repositioned and pay more attention to upstream production links; third, industry segmentation is not enough, and more people are needed to enter the field of vertical segmentation. Fourth, policy obstacles.

"in fact, the core of the redefinition of the agricultural industry is that agriculture should not be simply regarded as agricultural products, but as a safe industry, which is where the industry strives to innovate." Wei Sanshui said so.