Agriculture goes out to borrow "Belt and Road Initiative" or open up 750 billion cooperation space.

In recent years, the implementation of China's agricultural "going out" strategy has been accelerated, especially the rich agricultural resources of more than 60 countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative" route, which has brought a huge market for China's agricultural "going global". Recently, at the "2015 China Agricultural Development Forum," experts attending the meeting believed that under the stimulation of the "Belt and Road Initiative" strategy, this year will become the first year for China's agricultural overseas investment, or give birth to an overseas agricultural investment market of 750 billion yuan.

Grain continues to increase, and imports rise year after year.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, since China's grain production resumed in 2004, the country's total grain output reached 607 million tons in 2014, an increase of 5.16 million tons, or 0.9 percent, over 2013. At the same time, customs data show that China's grain imports reached another record high in 2014, with grain imports in the first 10 months alone almost equal to those imported in 2013, with total imports exceeding 104.2 million tons, of which more than 70 percent were imported soybeans, reaching 71.4 million tons.

On the one hand, domestic grain production has increased year after year; on the other hand, the total amount of imports has skyrocketed year after year, which has become the basic feature of China's grain market in recent years. In this regard, Ke Bingsheng, president of China Agricultural University, believes that this is because the growth of China's grain demand far exceeds the growth of production.

Although the central "No. 1 document" has locked in the issues of agriculture, rural areas and farmers for 12 years in a row, it is difficult to meet the demand by relying solely on domestic grain production due to the pressure of China's own environmental resources. "at present, China's land self-sufficiency rate is only 80%. Under the conditions of overloaded operation of agricultural resources and high environmental costs, it can only meet 90% of the domestic demand for grain, oil and other agricultural products. If 10% of agricultural products are imported from the international market, it is equivalent to using foreign agricultural resources to supplement 20% of domestic arable land resources. " Cheng Guoqiang, director of the International Cooperation Bureau of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

Deciphering "what China buys, what goes up"

In order to ensure the long-term security of China's food supply, in addition to developing modern agriculture and reforming the traditional development model, it is imperative to implement a new strategy to make agriculture "go out" and build a global supply network.

"what China's agriculture needs in the future is a global strategy, and we must grasp the initiative to make overall use of both domestic and foreign markets and two kinds of resources, so as to occupy the commanding heights of international agricultural competition." Cheng Guoqiang said that "Belt and Road Initiative" is a favorable opportunity for China to promote foreign investment in agriculture, reshape international agricultural rules and maintain the stability of the global market.

In fact, China's agricultural overseas investment has been carried out for decades. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the end of 2013, China's agricultural overseas investment totaled 3.956 billion US dollars, and a total of 373 domestic investment institutions have set up 443 agricultural enterprises abroad. The investment of central enterprises totaled US $161 million, accounting for 4.1%, while the rest were local state-owned enterprises, land reclamation groups and private enterprises.

However, China's agriculture "going out" is not a smooth road. In addition to facing difficulties such as political instability, lack of information and talent, and shortage of funds in the host country, some countries are also worried about China's "land purchase" move. In this regard, Cheng Guoqiang said: at present, there are two kinds of worries about the international market: one is the worry about the impact of low-priced foreign agricultural products on the domestic market, and the other is that price fluctuations in the international market are transmitted to China, affecting the domestic macro-economy. In order to avoid the situation of "what China buys and what goes up", it is particularly necessary to control the risk of market volatility through the formulation of rules, and we must actively participate in the formulation of global rules. China needs to identify import demand and stabilize expectations for the international market.

"Agriculture going out is definitely not just buying land, but in an all-round and three-dimensional way, including trade and technological exchanges." Said Han Yijun, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University.

Or open up 750 billion cooperation space.

In fact, food security is not only an issue of concern to China, but also an issue of common concern to countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative" route. Therefore, food cooperation can be said to be one of the best combination points of "community of interests" and "community with a shared future". Data show that in 2014, agricultural imports between China and countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative" route totaled US $22.839 billion, accounting for 18.80% of China's total agricultural imports, and agricultural exports totaled US $21.032 billion, accounting for 29.48% of China's total agricultural exports.

"Central Asia is vast and sparsely populated, the land is concentrated and flat, the species resources are rich, the agricultural production efficiency is low, the labor force is insufficient and the mode of operation is extensive. For example, Kazakhstan, which has the largest area of arable land in Central Asia, has the lowest grain yield in Central Asia. Wheat accounts for 80% of the total grain output, and the per unit yield of wheat is 1 ton per hectare, which is only 5% of that of China. " Cheng Guoqiang said.

In Han Yijun's view, 2015 is the first year of overseas investment in Chinese agriculture, and the scale of overseas investment will increase significantly in the future. "according to the estimates of our team, we have at least 500 billion yuan for agricultural cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative route, 200 billion yuan for aquaculture, and 50 billion yuan for seed cooperation." Liu Yang, a senior agricultural analyst at Citic Securities, believes that compared with the countries along the route, China has the advantages of competition and research and development, as well as the ability to export capital, technology, and talent. "going out at this time may be a very good critical period."

At present, "financing" provides an important support for agriculture to "go out". "three banks and one gold": four platforms, namely, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the BRICS Development Bank, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank and the Silk Road Fund, as well as the establishment of local governments and other funds, the integration of banks and other social capital, will provide a continuous stream of funds for "Belt and Road Initiative". These funds can be described as "rain after a long drought" for agricultural "going out" enterprises.