At present, national grain stocks have reached an all-time high.

Behind the "11th consecutive increase" of grain in China, unprecedented contradictions and problems have been accumulated in agriculture and rural areas. For example, due to the upside down of grain prices at home and abroad, there has been a strange thing of "import into the market, purchase into the warehouse". In some places, grain cannot be sold, stored or collected, and the new harvest season is under great pressure.

Over the past 36 years of reform and opening up, China's agriculture has increased production for a long time, and grain output has increased in a row. Of course, this provides a solid foundation for food security, but the peak of China's grain consumption is far from coming. Ye Xingqing, head of the Rural Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, made such a judgment at the "High-end Forum on deepening the Comprehensive Reform of supply and Marketing Cooperatives" on June 6.

This judgment is based on population growth, urbanization and, in particular, per capita GDP growth. According to the experience of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the dietary structure of the people is basically finalized when the per capita GDP reaches 20, 000 US dollars, but the current per capita GDP in China is only 7, 000 US dollars. 'China is still a long way from this process, 'Mr. Ye said. For a long time to come, with the growth of urban and rural residents, the dietary structure will change.

Despite the strong growth on the demand side, the reality is still not optimistic.

At the forum, relevant leaders of the Office of the Central Rural work leading Group said that behind the "11th consecutive increase" of China's grain output, unprecedented contradictions and problems had been accumulated in rural areas. For example, due to the upside down of grain prices at home and abroad, there has been a strange thing of "import into the market, purchase into the warehouse".

Specifically, the imported grain entered the market because of the low price, and as a result, the grain purchased domestically became inventory because of the high price. The leader said that at present, the national grain inventory has reached an all-time high, and there is a situation that grain "cannot be sold, saved or collected" in some places. The new harvest season is under a lot of pressure.

As for the increase in imports caused by the upside-down of grain prices, Ye Xingqing said that this is not a temporary phenomenon, but may be normal in the future. Due to the situation of large population and little land, the cost of agricultural products, especially the cost of labor, as well as the cost of land in recent years, have increased significantly.

The above-mentioned leader of the Central Agricultural Office said: judging from years of practice, whenever there is a bumper grain harvest and there is too much supply and demand for agricultural products, there will be a strong call to adjust the structure and change the way; on the contrary, when there are problems in the supply of agricultural products, especially in the grain market, we will return to give priority to grain production, and the law of this week should be broken. "if we still protect grain at all costs and concentrate on output, the mode of development will not be able to change."

Since 2004, China's agricultural comparative advantage began to weaken. China has had a trade deficit in agricultural products for 11 years in a row, exceeding 50 billion US dollars last year. Among them, rice, wheat and corn all achieved net imports. Among animal products, pork, beef and mutton are now net imports, with a net import of 1.05 million tons of milk powder last year.

Under the new situation, the central government has established a new food security strategy of "giving priority to ourselves, gaining a foothold at home, ensuring production capacity, moderate import, scientific and technological support, ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grain, and absolute safety of food rations." However, the above-mentioned leaders of the Central Agricultural Office also stressed that "giving priority to us and having a foothold at home" does not exclude imports from abroad. He believes that it is not necessary and impossible to ensure food security by relying entirely on self-resources. In the context of economic globalization, ensuring food security should also be counted as a price and cost-effective. In overemphasizing the high self-sufficiency rate and engaging in grain-rigid agriculture, the loss outweighs the gain for the so-called absolute safety.

Ye Xingqing said: the 13th five-year Plan being planned should reflect on and restructure China's agricultural policy system in the next stage. The core is to move from policy-oriented to competitiveness-oriented reform, which should be done in five directions.

First, the issue of business norms. The government issued documents to guide land transfer, focusing on supporting large-scale operation. The land trusteeship of Shandong supply and marketing cooperatives and the socialized service of agriculture will be an important way to build agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics.

Second, it is necessary to establish a competitiveness-oriented agricultural construction system and reconstruct the price formation system of agricultural products.

Third, the issue of agricultural subsidies. In 2015, the government began to adjust and improve the policy of "three subsidies" for agriculture. Specifically, since 2004, the state has successively implemented three subsidy policies: crop seed subsidies, direct subsidies for grain farmers and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural materials. The adjustment measures are to concentrate 20% of the stock funds of comprehensive agricultural subsidies, pilot funds for subsidies for large grain growers, and incremental funds for the "three subsidies" in agriculture to support appropriate scale operation of grain in accordance with the requirements of unified adjustment and improvement policies. 80% of the funds for comprehensive agricultural subsidies, direct subsidies for grain farmers and subsidies for improved varieties of crops will be used for the protection of cultivated land.

Fourth, the problem of structural adjustment. Optimize the structure and improve the competitiveness of agriculture.

Fifth, make rational use of both domestic and foreign markets.