The focus of China's Agricultural Development

Not long ago, General Secretary Xi Jinping said in a survey in Zhejiang Province that in the process of simultaneous progress of the four modernizations, industrialization, urbanization, informationization, and modernization, agriculture is obviously a short board and the weakest. Only by working hard to improve this short board to solve the weak links, can we really promote the development of the four modernizations and truly realize Chinese Dream. I think this judgment is very important.

In recent years, it should be said that the situation of agricultural development is very good. For 11 consecutive years, grain production has increased year after year, and farmers' income has increased year after year, which is almost unprecedented in Chinese history. But while seeing these achievements, we all feel a series of new challenges and pressures facing agriculture. Where do these challenges and pressures come from?

In fact, President Ke also mentioned just now, in a nutshell, I think we are now faced with three such puzzles that are growing at the same time. These three are growing at the same time. The first is that grain production has been increasing year after year over the past 11 years, and the second is that we have entered the new century. Especially since 2010, the amount of grain we have imported has been gradually increasing. The third, I think, at the same time, we should understand that the total grain inventory of our whole society is also growing rapidly. what is the three growth? I think this actually reflects a lot of their own contradictions and problems.

At the Central Economic work Conference on December 9 last year, General Secretary Xi Jinping made an analysis of the outstanding problems facing agriculture and rural areas at the Central Economic work Conference, and he pointed out the outstanding challenges and pressures we are currently facing in four aspects.

The first is the continuous rise in domestic agricultural prices and grain prices, which has made domestic prices have exceeded those in the international market, so more agricultural products in the international market are bound to enter our country.

The second trend has not stopped, so the production cost of domestic agricultural products is also rising at a faster rate. The high cost of domestic agricultural products will lead to high prices of domestic agricultural products, and it will also lead to more foreign agricultural products with low prices entering the Chinese market, so the General Secretary is called the ceiling, and the lowest growth price is called the ceiling. We have broken the ceiling now. The domestic production cost is called the floor, so it is obvious that if "the ceiling is pressed down and the floor is raised", the living space of our Chinese agricultural products will become narrower and narrower.

The third problem is that when agriculture develops to a certain stage in countries all over the world, it is inevitable that state property subsidies are needed, and so do we. In fact, we really subsidized agriculture since 2004. Well, according to the WTO standards on agricultural subsidies, there is not much room for subsidies for a considerable number of products in the yellow box, and some have broken through the yellow box line, such as cotton, sugar, many important agricultural products such as grains, etc., and the space for the yellow box policy is also very limited.

The fourth problem is that in recent years, we have concentrated on the growth of the output of agricultural products, and at the same time we have not done enough to protect the ecological environment, so the pressure on agricultural resources and environment is increasing.

The General Secretary summed up the four major contradictions facing agriculture at present: the ceiling pressure of international market prices, the pressure of rising floors of domestic agricultural products, the space pressure of yellow box subsidies, and the pressure on agricultural resources and environment. This is a major problem that we have to face in the future. It can also be said that now that China's agriculture has once again reached an important historical juncture, it is necessary for us to grasp the conditions in all aspects and analyze this situation well, and there are many problems in view of China's agriculture.

Among these problems, it is not so simple to solve each problem. I think the most prominent problem is actually from the point of view of our analysis of the four problems just now, I think there is a fundamental problem of the cost of agricultural production. At present, in the long run, it is of course a problem of ecological balance of sustainable development. As the cost continues to rise, the floor will continue to take the stage, which means that there will be more and more breakthroughs in ceiling height. The rise in the cost of agricultural production in China is inevitable at this stage in our country, because the economy is rising rapidly and people's income is rising rapidly. in this context, the prices of agricultural means of production, agricultural labor costs and rural land rents are all rising rapidly, especially in the new century around 2010, the situation is very obvious, many prices are analyzed and compared comprehensively. The minimum purchase price and temporary purchase price are implemented in the countries with the most important agricultural products. If you look at these prices, you will know that our costs are rising very fast.

After the Central Committee document No. 1 in 2014 clearly proposed the full liberalization of the grain market and the full liberalization of the grain market, the State Council decided to implement the lowest purchase price for market scarce agricultural products in the main market producing areas under the circumstances of fully opening up the grain market. since then, this year is the 12th year, the price policy has been maintained, but the level has been greatly improved. In 2004, we started to implement two minimum purchase prices, one is wheat, which does not include spring wheat. At that time, the minimum purchase price for flower wheat was 69 cents per jin, and the minimum purchase price for white wheat was 72 cents per catty. Now, by last year, the minimum purchase price for wheat has reached 1.18 yuan. Probably these prices have increased by more than 60%. In 2004, the purchase price of early indica rice was 70 cents per jin, and the lowest purchase price last year was 1.35 yuan. In 2004, the purchase price of middle and late indica rice was 72 cents, that of early indica rice was 70 cents, that of middle and late indica rice was 72 cents, and the price last year was 1.38 yuan. Japonica rice was 75 cents in 2004 and 1.55 yuan last year. Judging from these two prices, the price of indica rice has increased by 91% and 92%, and the price of japonica rice has probably increased by nearly 100%. This is not the price of the past 12 years. In fact, the minimum protective price was set in 2004. The price did not change in the first four years. The real price increase began in 2008. The price of wheat I just mentioned increased by about 2/3, and the price of rice increased by about 100%. This change was completed between 2008 and 2014, so the price rise has led to two obvious changes in the price of the whole grain market.

One is: originally, it was about the lowest purchase price, and gradually the lowest purchase price became the highest purchase price in the Chinese market. In the end, the highest purchase price led to two results, the government offered the highest price, and eventually the government became the only buyer of food products, and the market did not work. As a result, the incoming grain is stored in the warehouse, which leads to a sharp rise in inventories in recent years. In the market, processing enterprises and dealers have been saying that "rice is strong and rice is weak" and "wheat is strong and wheat is weak" for some time, which shows that the purchase price has exceeded the purchase price of the acquisition enterprise.

The second is that since the beginning of the new century, the prices of China's agricultural products are obviously lower than those in the international market, and now the prices of some products have exceeded those in the international market, so the import volume in the international market has increased rapidly.

With regard to the increase in import quantity mentioned by President Ke just now, all kinds of grain products were added together by the end of last year. Last year, China's import volume exceeded 100.42 million tons for the first time, including 71.4 million tons of soybeans. This import volume is huge. Compared with less than 20 million tons at the beginning of the century, it is now 71.4 million tons. In terms of international standards, grain imports are relatively low. Last year, we imported three major grains, rice, 3 million tons, wheat and corn 2.5 million tons each, so the three major grains imported last year added up to 8.4 million tons, accounting for a relatively low proportion. In this way, less than 80 million tons of soybeans are imported, and there are more than 20 million tons of commodities that people did not care about in the past, more than 5 million tons of barley, more than 5 million tons of sorghum, more than 5 million tons of corn lees, and more than 8 million tons of cassava powder. so these add up to 20 million tons, so why are these products imported? In the past, barley was imported mainly for brewing beer, but now half of the more than 5 million tons of barley is feed. Sorghum is needed in our brewing of high-grade liquor, but almost all of it is domestic, and imported sorghum has never been used. So basically, imported sorghum is fed, corn distiller's grains is basically fed, and more than 8 million tons of cassava flour is mainly processed starch. Therefore, we can see that the rapid expansion of the import of these four new varieties actually shows that the main body of the market is using him to replace the consumption of corn. A very important reason is that the price of corn in the domestic market is higher than that in the international market, and the import cost of these substitutes is also higher than that of these substitutes. The import of these substitutes has become a trend.

At the beginning of the implementation of the minimum price policy, corn was not reached, corn and soybeans were not reached. In 2007, there were problems in corn production and marketing, and market prices fell. In order to protect the interests of farmers, the temporary purchase price of corn was implemented for the first time in 2007. After the corn was produced, it was transferred to the market price, and the government sold it and purchased it at a temporary purchase price. In that year, the average temporary purchase price was 70 cents. Heilongjiang 699, Jilin 7Mao, Liaoning 71.1, so last year the average price changed to 1.12 yuan, Heilongjiang 1.11 yuan, Liaoning 1.13 yuan, Jilin 1.12 yuan, it can be seen that 70 cents in 2007 to 2014, also seven years, up 60%, so the domestic corn price is significantly higher than the market capacity, but also significantly higher than the international market. Therefore, this product is more and more replaced by the international market, and this trend has eased so far. We can see that the grain purchase prices of the three major grains announced by the state this year, and the lowest purchase prices of wheat and rice remain at last year's level. Farmers also find it acceptable, mainly because the means of production are declining, and the decline in global energy prices has led to a decline in the price of agricultural inputs. At present, the price is acceptable to farmers.

Therefore, the price did not rise in 2015, but it is acceptable to the market if it does not rise. the difficulty we are facing now and that we have never encountered before is that what is produced may not be able to be sold, and our own supply can meet our own needs. Others are not allowed to grab a piece of territory. Just now I mentioned that the three are rising at the same time. In fact, some low-priced grain products in the world have entered the Chinese market and some high-priced Chinese grain products have been invited into the warehouse. this situation can be done in the short term, but obviously not in the long term. Products cannot just go in and out. This problem is very prominent in China's agriculture. In the future, effective measures must be taken as soon as possible to resolve this contradiction.

It should be said that the central government has clearly realized that this is a problem since the year before last, and has taken some specific measures. We all know that the changes in the target prices of soybeans for cotton in Xinjiang and the Northeast last year are actually trying to change the current target policy.

Since the beginning of 2013, after more than a year of research, these two target price changes were made in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia in 2014. The effect of the change of these two target prices is also obvious. in order to ensure the interests of farmers, the temporary purchase and storage price of cotton in Xinjiang implemented by the state at the end of 2013 is 20400 yuan per ton of lint. In fact, the domestic market should take into account import factors. If it is to be counted as the equilibrium price of the market, the approximate lint price enterprises can accept is 13500 yuan per ton. If this is the case in the long run, there will be a difference of 6900 yuan per ton of cotton. Domestic enterprises are unwilling to use domestic cotton, so imports will continue to increase, resulting in the same results as grain. Domestic cotton enters the warehouse, and enterprises use the international market more. It is precisely in view of this situation that the state implemented the target price method in Xinjiang for the cotton reform last year. The target price is actually the real expected price published, the expected price announced to farmers. The price announced last year was 19800 yuan per ton, which is 600 yuan lower than the year before last. Of course, this price is much higher than the price acceptable to the market, but this price tells farmers that if the cotton you sell at the market price is lower than this target price, the price difference is subsidized by the government. In this way, in fact, the price that real farmers can sell is about 13500 yuan, so 19800 yuan per ton has to subsidize more than 6000 yuan. This is just lint. Let me give you an example. It is precisely because of this change, and at the same time, this target price system is mainly implemented in Xinjiang. Cotton in the mainland, cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins do not enjoy this policy, and lint quotas per ton are adopted in these two major areas of the mainland. as for the difference between the lint price and the market price, after this adjustment, the new cotton planting area, from what we know, Probably, the planting area of cotton in Xinjiang has dropped by 70.8% this year and the year before last, so farmers have responded to this price. However, the reduction in the two major cotton areas in the mainland is about 45%, which is very large. That is to let farmers know that it is no longer possible to grow cotton in this place, but even lint at 2,000 yuan per ton is unbearable, and farmers make adjustments. So in this sense, the effect is obvious, and there are many specific details, for example, how the state determines how much cotton each household has sold, how can I supply you with the price difference between you and the target price, and so on? this is also very complicated, so last year, the relevant departments of the Xinjiang Autonomous region and the central government made great efforts to reform the target price of cotton, so now we can draw some conclusions. There is no way out for domestic cotton to maintain at such a price, but the interests of farmers have to be taken into account. Under the circumstances of these two problems, they are constantly rushing forward.