Corn market is more complex and uncertain.

According to the usual practice of previous years, domestic corn prices will continue to rise after June, and the market purchase and sales activities will also be very active, but the current domestic corn market situation is somewhat abnormal, mainly manifested by the weak rise in corn prices. market circulation and purchasing and marketing activities are basically stagnant, and the state reserve corn needs to be dealt with urgently because of its large quantity and poor quality. Why is the domestic corn market so complicated? What will happen to the corn market in the later period?

"it doesn't work to buy corn from northeast China and sell it to the south now. No one is going to make money-losing deals. Many traders are mainly engaged in importing corn, sorghum, DDGS and barley." Guangzhou corn trader Liu Benchuang told Futures Daily that after years of government-led massive collection and storage, the domestic corn market does not have much room for survival for traders, because most of the food sources are in the hands of the government. the free circulation of the corn market has basically stopped, coupled with the large quantity, poor quality and high price of corn stored by the state, many traders have to withdraw from the business field of domestic northeast corn. Instead, focus on the management of imported corn and other varieties.

According to the reporter's understanding, since the new corn went on the market last year, the government has led the purchase of about 83 million tons of corn in Northeast China, coupled with the 70 million tons of corn produced in Northeast China in 2013, which has resulted in very little circulation of corn produced in Northeast China on the market. grain enterprises with demand for corn from Northeast China can only complete the procurement work by participating in the auction of state reserve corn. Due to the poor quality of some state-owned corn reserves and relatively high storage costs, although there are subsidies for enterprises purchasing state-owned corn reserves in some areas, they still can not meet the procurement requirements of grain enterprises. Some grain enterprises began to purchase inland corn and imported corn, while some grain enterprises began to replace domestic corn with imported sorghum and barley, resulting in low demand and poor circulation of domestic corn. Market transaction price and volume naturally continue to decline.

Compared with the current prices in domestic corn production and marketing areas, it can be found that the pattern of "transporting grain from the north to the south" in the corn market has changed greatly in recent years, and the phenomenon that corn prices in the production and marketing areas are flat or even upside down often appears, which makes the domestic corn market become more and more complex. This not only has a lot to do with the distortion of market prices caused by the government-led collection and storage of corn, but also has a lot to do with the fact that more and more high-quality and cheap imported corn, sorghum and barley have occupied the traditional sales market of domestic corn in the past two years. According to estimates by professionals in the industry, China's total imports of corn, sorghum, DDGS and barley this year are about 25 million tons. In addition, the price of protein feed raw materials such as soybean meal and rapeseed meal is currently at a historically low level, and its substitution for corn is also obvious, which also reduces the purchasing and selling activity of the corn market.

The Northeast temporary Storage Corn auction transaction data released by relevant departments show that since the auction began in early May this year, the transaction rate has continued to decline, and the interest of grain enterprises to participate in the State Reserve Corn auction is getting lower and lower. Among them, in addition to the poor quality of stored corn and high prices affecting the purchasing enthusiasm of grain enterprises, the backlog of downstream corn products and lower prices also make grain enterprises "willing but powerless" when purchasing stored corn.

Xi Jingtao, general manager of Hengshui Heping Grain Depot in Hebei Province, believes that the domestic corn market is now divided into three major parts: first, the southern corn market is dominated by imported corn and sorghum; second, the inland corn market is controlled by corn produced in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan; and third, the corn market in the northeast is controlled by the state reserve corn. As the domestic corn market is divided by different market forces, coupled with different customer demand between regions, different sources of market supply, as well as the limitations of transport conditions, the domestic corn market is now in disorder. In addition, what should be concerned by the market is that corn produced in Northeast China has been transferred across provinces to all parts of the country. Due to the difficult safe storage of these corn and the tight storage capacity in many areas, it is estimated that this part of the state-owned corn will be released from the warehouse at any time. At that time, the supply pressure of the domestic corn market will certainly increase, and market uncertainties will also increase.