The domestic rapeseed industry may gradually lose its market share or lead the international market.

At present, the Yangtze River Basin is in the peak season for the listing of newly produced rapeseed. Rapeseed farmers, oil factories and traders who buy rapeseed will be busy at this time in previous years, and farmers will actively sell them. Oil factories and traders are rushing to harvest new rapeseed, and new mustard oil and rapeseed meal have begun to supply the market in large quantities at this time. However, this year, the rapeseed purchase market in the Yangtze River Basin is deserted. It is a common phenomenon that farmers do not sell and oil factories do not harvest, and there is no place to find new rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. In particular, the "aquatic market" of the rapeseed meal market in the same period in previous years has also disappeared.

The yield of domestic rapeseed decreased obviously.

The reporter learned from a survey in the main rapeseed producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin that the total rapeseed production in the producing areas continued to decline this year. Although favorable weather conditions in various producing areas helped to increase per unit yield this year, the total rapeseed production still declined due to a large decline in rapeseed acreage.

Market participants told reporters that there are many reasons for the reduction of domestic rape planting area, the main reason is that farmers do not make money to grow rape, and need to invest more manpower. In addition, rape planting and harvesting can not achieve mechanized operation, which also reduces the enthusiasm of farmers.

It is understood that in recent years, in order to improve the enthusiasm of farmers in planting rape, the government has implemented a market-supporting purchase policy in Hubei and other major producing areas, and the purchase price of rapeseed has been raised to 2.55 yuan per jin, but compared with the income of planting wheat and other crops, the income of planting rapeseed per mu is still about 150 yuan less. At present, in addition to planting some rape to ensure their own oil demand, some farmers in the producing areas basically no longer plant excess rape.

It is understood that rape planting still retains the original production mode, and the series of steps of soil preparation-seedling-transplanting-watering-harvest are mainly completed by manual work. At present, the vast majority of young and middle-aged workers in rural areas go out to work, in the case of labor shortage and rising labor wages, rape planting with a large number of workers and complicated production process is naturally unattractive to farmers.

When visiting the producing areas, the reporter also found that there are many hilly terrain and paddy fields in the rape producing areas, which results in the high cost of rape cultivation and is not conducive to the large-scale cultivation of rape.

Rape planting investment is large, the income is poor, farmers in producing areas are now keen on "oil to wheat", "oil to vegetable", "oil to lotus" and so on, especially wheat, not only higher income, but also basically all mechanical operation.

There will be a major adjustment in policy, and the domestic rapeseed industry chain will gradually disappear.

This year, the purchase policy of rapeseed in the main producing areas is no longer implemented, but is replaced by the purchase subsidy policy, and the specific purchase price and subsidy rules are determined by the local government. Rapeseed market began to change from "policy market" to "market market". Without the government's purchase of supporting the market, what new situation will appear in the domestic rapeseed industry chain?

Guangdong rapeseed processor Yu Li told reporters that judging from the current market development situation, after the major changes in the rapeseed collection and storage policy, the market will mainly have the following situations: first, the collection and storage policy handed over to the local government this year and in the future will definitely not be implemented, because the local government does not have sufficient financial resources to complete the collection and storage task. Second, the domestic rapeseed industry chain will be basically market-oriented, and the market price will be mainly affected by market supply and demand; third, in the first year of the implementation of the new policy, all parties in the market will adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the purchase time of newly produced rapeseed will be lengthened. The listing time of a large number of new rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal will be delayed. Fourth, without the support of the government, the prices of the three varieties in the domestic rapeseed industry chain will go down, and it is normal for farmers to sell with oil factories and traders. Fifth, due to the decline in income from planting rapeseed, the planting area of rapeseed in the main producing areas is bound to decline sharply in the new crop year, and domestic rapeseed and domestic soybeans will become "brothers". Sixth, in the long run, the domestic supply of rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is tightening, and prices may rebound.

According to the reporter's understanding, after the newly produced rapeseed was listed on the market this year, due to the lack of the market purchase supported by the government, the market price was low. The purchase price of newly produced rapeseed in Hubei and other places once fell to 1.6 yuan per jin, which was nearly 1 yuan per jin compared with the purchase price supported by the government last year, which caused most farmers to hesitate to sell. At the same time, due to the uncertainty of the late trend, oil factories and traders dare not rush into the market to buy, thus giving rise to the strange thing that farmers do not sell and oil factories do not collect.

Recently, the purchase price of newly produced rapeseed in the main producing areas has rebounded to about 2 yuan per jin, and the main buyers in the market are mainly some large oil factories, traders and local oil factories, while small and medium-sized oil factories and traders are still waiting and watching.

"farmers are less and less interested in growing rape, and farmers are more likely to choose to grow wheat in the new crop year." Sun Wei, general manager of the trade branch of China Textile Agricultural Hubei Co., Ltd., believes that although the purchase price of newly produced rapeseed has warmed recently, it is still 0.5 yuan per jin lower than last year's market purchase price, and it is not cost-effective for farmers to grow rapeseed.

From the perspective of the overall development trend of the market, the major adjustment of rapeseed collection and storage policy this year has only accelerated the reduction of domestic rapeseed, while the poor income of planting rapeseed and the inability to plant rapeseed on a large scale are the main reasons for the decline of domestic rapeseed production. More importantly, the influx of imported rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, soybeans and soybean oil in recent years has not only caused a sharp decline in domestic vegetable oil and meal prices, but also squeezed out the market share of the domestic rapeseed industry chain. it is difficult for industrial chain enterprises, such as oil factories, to survive.

The international market price will dominate the domestic price in the future

Yu Li believes that as the output of domestic rapeseed decreases year by year, the output of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal will continue to decline, and the market position of domestic rapeseed and its products will change significantly with that of imported rapeseed and its products. Imported rapeseed and its products will occupy a dominant position in the market.

According to the reporter's understanding, in recent years, many oil plants have been built in China's coastal areas, mainly squeezing imported soybeans and rapeseed, and most of the crushed imported rapeseed products, genetically modified rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, are sold outside the main producing areas of rapeseed in China. However, with the less and less output of domestic rapeseed, the impact of imported rapeseed and its products on the domestic rapeseed industry chain is more and more obvious, and has infiltrated into the main producing areas of rapeseed in China. Although the current government does not allow oil factories in the main producing areas to squeeze imported rapeseed, mainly in the form of finished products, market participants believe that there is the possibility of further changes in the future.

It is understood that residents in rapeseed producing areas such as the Yangtze River Basin are used to eating rapeseed oil, local aquaculture is also relatively developed, and rapeseed meal is the main raw material of aquatic feed. After the gradual disappearance of the domestic rapeseed industry, the market expects that imported rapeseed and its products will eventually enter the producing area market.

For soybean oil, soybean meal and other related products, market participants believe that the lack of domestic rapeseed industry will provide it with a certain market development space, and will also provide profitable support for the prices of these products for a long time, especially when there is a reduction in international rapeseed production, this market effect will be more obvious.

For the domestic rapeseed and its product market, market participants believe that the lack of supply in the short term will not have much impact on the market price. But in the long run, first of all, the price of domestic rapeseed oil, known as "oriental olive oil", will rise, and the development space of local oil crushing plants in producing areas will be opened, but they will face the problem of shortage of raw materials; secondly, the market influence of domestic rapeseed industry is getting smaller and smaller, which is evidenced by the delayed launch of rapeseed meal "aquatic product market" this year, and the postponement of the listing of new mustard oil and rapeseed meal this year has not had much impact on the market. Finally, the domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal market prices will be more and more affected by the price rise and fall of the international oil market in the future, and the increase or decrease of the output of the main rapeseed suppliers in the international market will directly have a significant impact on the domestic market.