China's rapeseed production halved may repeat the mistake of soybean industry.

Anhui is the main producing area of rapeseed in China, and Hefei, Chuzhou and Liu'an in central Anhui are also key rapeseed planting areas. Zhang Yongwen, a major farmer in the above-mentioned areas, told reporters that very few rapeseed are grown in the area, mainly wheat and rice.

The purchasing person in charge of a large grain and oil processing enterprise in Anhui told the reporter that the cultivation of rapeseed in Hefei, Chuzhou and Lu'an was basically gone. although the output of rapeseed in southern Anhui has increased, by 2015, the total area of rapeseed in Anhui should be reduced by 60% to 70%, and the annual output of rapeseed has dropped from a peak of about 1.5 million tons to about 500000 tons now. Anhui originally ranked second in the output of rapeseed in the country, but now it has retreated to the third place.

Hubei is still the largest producing area of rapeseed in China. According to a person from a grain and oil company in Hubei, in 2008, the planting area of rapeseed in Hubei was about 17 million mu, with an output of about 2.19 million tons. This year, the planting area of rapeseed in Hubei is expected to be 9.6 million mu. The output is about 1.06 million tons, a decline of more than 50%, similar to Anhui.

The above-mentioned people said that in 2008, the annual output of rapeseed in the country was 1200 to 13 million tons, and the oilseed industry still recognized this figure, and the total output is now expected to decline by about half compared with 2008.

The USDA gives very different figures.

According to the latest report released by the USDA in June this year, in the five market years from 2011 to 2015, rapeseed production in China was 13.426 million tons, 14.007 million tons, 14.458 million tons, 14.6 million tons and 14.2 million tons respectively. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, rapeseed production in China has increased steadily over the past few years.

A senior grain and oil source said the USDA gave the above figures mainly based on data from agencies with Chinese official backgrounds. An analyst commented on this: "rapeseed production official and institutional survey data are indeed very different, in fact, from the temporary reserves can be seen, the official data moisture."

The Hubei Provincial rapeseed Office announced that in 2014, various grain enterprises in 12 major rapeseed producing areas, including Hubei and Sichuan, accumulated 3.49 million tons of summer rapeseed, a decrease of 2.67 million tons or 43.34 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, the purchase of temporarily stored rapeseed was 2.15 million tons, a decrease of 2.36 million tons, or 52.33 percent, compared with the same period last year. According to industry insiders, there is a big question mark over the accuracy of the official data, which pushes back the national production from the number of rapeseed temporarily stored.

The more supported, the more shrinking.

Since 2008, China has increased its support for wheat, rice and other staple grain crops, and temporary storage of rapeseed has also been implemented, but the benefit is lower than that of other crops, resulting in the actual results contrary to expectations, and the rapeseed industry shrinks as it is supported.

The income of rapeseed is much lower than that of wheat. In Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places, winter fallow fields can grow both rape and wheat. Take Hubei as an example, market participants said that the income of rape is 100,200 yuan per mu, but the income of wheat per mu is about 500 yuan, which is much higher than that of rapeseed. The number of farmland that gives up rapeseed to grow cash crops such as wheat or mustard has increased a lot in recent years.

In the temporary collection and storage of rapeseed implemented in recent years, the collection and storage price set by the state is much higher than that in the international market, cheap imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil flow into China in large quantities, and the motivation of processing enterprises to use domestic rapeseed is weakened.

The dutiable cost of importing rapeseed from Canada has been stable at around 4200 yuan per ton for a long time since September 2013, according to a report by Hubei rapeseed Office. It fell to a trough of 3600 yuan / ton in October 2014, and then rebounded, but the whole is still at a low level. Compared with the long-term stable price level of domestic rapeseed at about 5100 yuan / ton, imported rapeseed has a price advantage of at least 1000 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of imported non-genetically modified rapeseed oil is about 6600 yuan per ton, while the price of rapeseed oil in Sichuan market is about 13000 yuan. The Yangtze River Basin, as the main producing area and consumption area of rapeseed, many processing enterprises along the line are in a state of suspension.

The way out of domestic rapeseed

The current situation of domestic rapeseed is similar to that of domestic soybeans, with a sharp decline in output, a weak processing industry and a lack of vitality in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain.

The only bright spot is that in Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan and other areas where Sichuan and Hunan cuisine are popular, the market demand for Luzhou rapeseed oil remains strong, and imported rapeseed oil does not have the characteristics of strong flavor, so in Sichuan and other places, the planting area and output of rapeseed remain relatively stable, and the price of Luzhou rapeseed oil can be maintained at a high of about 13000 yuan per ton. However, problems such as blending with other non-Luzhou-flavor cooking oils and poor control of toxic and harmful substances are prominent.

Yihai Kerry Oil Director Tu Changming told reporters that in order to revitalize the domestic rapeseed industry, first of all, the market price of rapeseed is in line with international standards, and the second is to give full play to the characteristics of domestic rapeseed and standardize the development of rich rapeseed oil.

Up to now, the state has not temporarily collected and stored rapeseed this year, and the price of rapeseed in Jiangsu and other places has dropped to about 3400 yuan to 3600 yuan per ton, which is already close to the price of imported rapeseed, and processing enterprises are ready to enter the market to buy. With regard to the issue of ensuring farmers' income, market participants suggest that direct subsidies should be given to farmers, and rapeseed is still sold at market prices to make processing enterprises run. In previous years, the temporary storage price of rapeseed is too high so that processing enterprises do not dare to enter the market, and a large number of rapeseed oil pressed with high cost can only be stored in the national treasury, taking up a lot of national funds, which is difficult to sustain.