Corn inventory consumption shock market continues

In terms of quotations in major regions, as of June 19, the prices of Dalian, Jinzhou, Changchun, Weifang and Shekou were 2410 yuan/ton, 2400 yuan/ton, 2380 yuan/ton, 2400 yuan/ton and 2480 yuan/ton respectively, which changed from 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton,+10 yuan/ton and-10 yuan/ton respectively last week, and changed from-30 yuan/ton,-40 yuan/ton,+20 yuan/ton and-10 yuan/ton respectively last month.$60/ton.

Under the condition that the north and south ports are upside down, the northern acquisition runs coldly, and the arrival volume continues to remain low, with the mainstream purchase price of 2300-2360 yuan/ton; the recent inventory pressure of the southern port is obvious, and the inventory rises to about 450,000 tons due to the centralized arrival of imported corn. Corn shipments continued to remain low due to weak demand and import substitutes, with daily shipments of less than 15,000 tons. In the short term, inventory pressure in South Port remains, weak market conditions continue to suppress the market, and will be transmitted to North Port.

Starch spot prices vary. As of June 19, prices in Changchun, Shijiazhuang, Weifang, Xi'an, Shanghai, Fuzhou and Guangzhou were 3000 yuan/ton, 3100 yuan/ton, 3080 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton, 3260 yuan/ton, 3300 yuan/ton and 3250 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with last week, the price changed by +100 yuan/ton,+120 yuan/ton,+80 yuan/ton,+30 yuan/ton,+80 yuan/ton,+60 yuan/ton and +90 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous month, the changes were +50 yuan/ton,+70 yuan/ton,+30 yuan/ton,-50 yuan/ton,-60 yuan/ton,-10 yuan/ton and-30 yuan/ton. Corn starch is running at a high level, but downstream demand is weak, downstream market cautious wait-and-see mood is heavy, starch prices are expected to face pressure.

According to a report released by the Ministry of Agriculture, there were 387 million live pigs in April, down 9.40% year-on-year, and 39.71 million breeding sows, down 14.90% year-on-year. Pig stock data decreased significantly, while domestic soybean meal (2578,-21.00,-0.81%) supply was not a problem, and the contradiction between supply and demand became more prominent. As of June 10, the price of live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week, and the pig-to-grain ratio was 6.07, up 0.07 last week, according to Chinese government website data. Pig stocks continue to decline, which has stimulated pork prices to pick up, and pig profits will continue to improve in the later period.

Although the current corn starch processing profit is still falling compared with next week, Shandong has fallen to-119 yuan/ton at present. The main reason is that the operating rate of enterprises has increased significantly. At present, the corn starch market rises steadily and fluctuates. The wave is between 10-40 yuan/ton. The price adjustment in Shandong area is relatively active and obvious. Downstream demand is weak, while the prices of protein powder, fiber and other by-products continue to decline, the operating pressure of starch manufacturers gradually increases, and manufacturers in some regions begin to reduce processing volume to relieve their own pressure.

Pre-speculation rumors are basically higher than the paragraph, spot to maintain weak shocks, short-term futures will remain volatile market. The demand in the southern sales area continues to be weak, and the arrival pressure in the south port increases, the suppression effect of import substitution on corn demand continues, and the weak market may be transmitted to the north port. Although the market grain source is in the continuous consumption period, the consumption speed is slow, the gap between supply and demand has not arrived, and the price continues to be under pressure in the short term. However, from the current corn market inventory consumption stage, corn prices in the future difficult to continue to fall.