When will the rice market come out of the "cold winter" in the heat

After entering June, the temperature continues to rise, and the speed of domestic rice sales has slowed down significantly. This is followed by a decline in the daily processing capacity of the factory and an increase in the phenomenon of downtime and maintenance. Moreover, most factories say that rice processing profits have hit bottom or are in a state of loss for a long time, so how long will this phenomenon last and what is the main reason?

The strong and weak pattern of rice has existed for a long time.

In order to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and promote the development of grain production, the state has implemented the lowest purchase price policy in the main rice producing areas since 2004. Since its implementation for 10 years, the minimum purchase price of rice in China has increased year by year, with a cumulative increase of 0.65 yuan per jin for early indica rice, 0.66 yuan per jin for middle and late indica rice and 0.80 yuan per jin for japonica rice. With the increase of the minimum purchase price of rice, although the subjective interests of farmers have been guaranteed, for the deep processing enterprises of rice, the rising price of rice makes the cost of acquisition, storage and processing continue to increase, while the profit space of processing is constantly squeezed, and the phenomenon of inverted link between raw grain and the actual price of rice is obvious. Some enterprises have to process rice at a loss in order to ensure market share and existing regular customers.

As far as I know, in June this year, the operating rate of domestic rice processing enterprises was less than 20%, and the daily processing capacity of some enterprises with an annual processing capacity of more than 100000 tons was only 10% of the daily production capacity, which only ensured the supply and sales of middle and high-end rice. Among them, in the northern producing areas, it is common for factories to sell rice in stock due to the pressure of late processing. In the southern producing areas, some rice factories use the existing storage capacity to participate in the purchase and sale of wheat to ease workers' wages and related expenses.

Imports have long suppressed domestic rice shipments.

In April 2015, the country imported 330236 tons of rice through official channels, an increase of 186458 tons, or 129.68 percent, over the previous month, according to the General Administration of Customs. Compared with the same period last year, the increase of 8504 tons was 2.64%, and monthly imports reached the highest level since 2013. The above figures are all regular imports, excluding the amount of smuggled rice. Since the introduction of imported rice into the market, the business situation of China's rice processing industry has gone from bad to worse, especially the scope of influence of imported rice has spread from the marketing area to the producing area, and most rice mills say that business is becoming more and more difficult! One of the main reasons for this phenomenon is that imported rice gets a share of domestic rice at a low market price. As of this month, the wholesale price of imported Vietnam 504 rice in Foshan, Guangdong, is 3500 yuan / ton, which is 960 yuan / ton less than that of ordinary northeast round grain rice produced in 2014, and 90-1100 yuan / ton compared with high-quality medium and late indica rice. The large price difference tempts domestic rice to blend with imported rice to reduce costs and stimulate shipments. this phenomenon is particularly common in the main rice producing areas, and the market blending rice in sales areas has become the mainstream. The author believes that this is not only not conducive to the healthy development of China's rice industry, but also lays a heavy brushstroke for the rice market to get out of the cold winter as soon as possible.

Seasonal consumption has obvious characteristics.

According to the usual practice, the period from June to August is the off-season for rice consumption. On the one hand, the temperature in the rice sales area is rising, and the coastal areas have entered the plum rain season. Rain Water has a large quantity and high air humidity, and the probability of damp and mildew of rice increases, which brings certain difficulties to sales and safekeeping. Dealers are cautious in preparing goods in order to reduce risks and keep low inventory. At the same time, with the improvement of people's living standards, people's dining tables are becoming more and more abundant, no longer simply to solve the problem of food and clothing, but to pay more attention to nutrition and health, and the habits of staple rice have changed. On the other hand, after July, domestic colleges and universities begin to have holidays one after another, and the market demand may further shrink.

To sum up, if the price of rice does not come down all the time, and the price of rice rises weakly, the competition for market share between domestic rice and imported rice will become more and more fierce in the later stage, and it will be difficult for the rice market to get out of the "cold winter" and usher in spring for a longer time. The author thinks that what the rice industry should do now is to ensure the quality of rice and strive to be fine and fine. Reject the immediate interests, enhance the brand effect in order to successfully survive the rice market "winter", and in the future rice industry reshuffle process out of advantages, and then will not be eliminated.