Buying and hoarding strong wheat at high prices is risky in the future.

Since late June, with the end of wheat harvest to the north of the Yellow River, the listing scope of new wheat in the main producing areas has gradually expanded, and the market purchase and sale has become more and more active.

Judging from the recent acquisition situation in various places, the price operation of New Pumai is relatively stable, but the price trend between the north and the south is more obvious; the supply of high-quality wheat is tight, the price is rising rapidly, and the psychology of traders snapping up and hoarding strong gluten wheat has appeared.

The price of Pumai is relatively stable.

At present, new wheat has been on the market for more than a month. With the expansion of sales volume of new wheat purchase in various places, the market purchase and sales atmosphere has become increasingly active, and the price of new wheat has rebounded as a whole. However, under the influence of regional wheat quality differences, the price trend of wheat in the north and south is relatively obvious.

At present, the purchase prices of common new wheat in Hebei, Shandong and Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui are 1.22-1.25 yuan / jin, 1.20-1.24 yuan / jin and 1.18-1.22 yuan / jin respectively. From a regional point of view, the prices of wheat in Hebei, Shandong and northern Henan have risen steadily, while the prices of wheat in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and southern Henan are relatively stable, and the quotation of wheat in some areas is still lower than the lowest purchase price, mainly due to the low quality of wheat. imperfect grain, scab, malt and other indicators exceed the standard. For example, the market purchase price of feed wheat traders in Huaian, Jiangsu Province is 1.06 yuan / jin, the market purchase price of feed wheat with a bulk weight of 730 grams in Bozhou, Anhui Province is 1.05 yuan / jin, and the purchase price of wheat with imperfect grains in Hubei Province is 15%, and the purchase price of wheat is 1.05-1.1 yuan per jin. At present, whether to relax the acquisition criteria of over-standard wheat is still the focus of the market.

Market participants predict that due to the high quality of wheat in the northern wheat region, there is still some room to rise in the later stage, and its increase should be the same as last year, or even higher than last year, but the wheat quality in the southern wheat region deviates, and it is difficult for prices to strengthen in the later stage. If the state does not relax the purchase policy of over-standard wheat, its price may fall back.

The price of premium wheat is rising rapidly.

Relatively speaking, recently, due to the lack of supply and active procurement, the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat has risen rapidly, and the purchase and sale of Uppu wheat market can be described as a mixture of ice and fire.

China's high-quality wheat is mainly produced in Henan, Shandong and Hebei provinces. due to the overcast and rainy weather during wheat harvest in the south of Henan Province, the quality of high-quality wheat varieties dominated by "Xinong 979" has been damaged. Shandong, Hebei and northern Henan have naturally become the focus of market attention.

The agency estimates that due to the decrease in the planting area of strong gluten wheat in China this year and the overcast and rainy weather in some strong gluten wheat growing areas, the quality of new wheat has declined and the yield of new strong gluten wheat has decreased, which is estimated by the market to be about 3 million tons.

Affected by the tight supply of high-quality wheat, the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in the main producing areas has gone up obviously since it was put on the market this year, and the price has risen more rapidly in recent years. At present, the purchase price of Shandong high-quality wheat "Jinan 17" in the market is 1.32 yuan / jin, rising 0.04 yuan / jin in a week. The purchase price of Hebei "Shili 02-1" rose rapidly to 1.27 yuan / jin after opening the scale, and soared to 1.3 yuan / jin in just a week. Now the purchase price of 1.4 yuan / jin is becoming more and more difficult. The purchase price of Henan "Zhengmai 366" has even risen to 1.42-1.45 yuan per jin, and the price difference between the current purchase price of ordinary wheat and that of ordinary wheat has reached 0.22-0.23 yuan per jin, much higher than the 0.8-0.13 yuan per jin last year. The price of superior wheat has risen faster than the market expected.

During the purchase of summer grain last year, the source of high-quality wheat in some areas was once looted at one price a day. The weighing price of "Gaoyou 2018" was about 1.3 yuan / jin last year, and rose more than 1.4 yuan / jin in the later stage. Most of the enterprises that buy and store high-quality wheat grain sources have made better profits. At present, some traders believe that there will still be a good market for high-quality wheat this year, and they have entered the market to rush to buy, and the psychology of hoarding excellent wheat is increasing.

Rational purchase and sale beware of market risk

The increase of wheat production in China this year is basically a foregone conclusion, and the policy inventory remains higher than in previous years, coupled with the fact that it is difficult to substantially improve the bottleneck of depressed demand, the overall market supply and demand appears to be loose, and wheat prices are weak.

Some institutions estimate that in 2015 and 2016, the supply of wheat in China is about 237 billion jin, the demand is about 232.5 billion jin, and the annual balance is about 4.5 billion jin, and the relationship between supply and demand will continue to improve.

Affected by the decline in the output of domestic high-quality wheat, although the market supply and demand situation is still tight, judging from the current soaring prices of high-quality wheat, there is also a bubble risk, especially in the case of high internal and external price differentials. This risk is increasing.

According to market understanding, since the summer harvest this year, flour processing enterprises in southern sales areas have a negative attitude towards purchasing new wheat, and imported wheat still accounts for a large share.

It is reported that the import quota of nearly 3 million tons of wheat issued by the government at the beginning of the year is estimated to have basically completed the procurement and delivery to domestic ports, most of which are strong gluten wheat. Due to the concentration of arrival, the port distribution price of imported strong gluten wheat has been reduced from 4100 yuan / ton at the end of last year to the current 3250-3300 yuan / ton.

If there is a slow sale of imported wheat in the later stage, in order to get back the funds quickly, we do not rule out the possibility that the importer may further reduce the distribution price. after all, there is still a difference of about 1000 yuan / ton between the cost of imported wheat and the current distribution price. Therefore, it is reminded that in order to avoid market risk, the behavior of snapping up and hoarding domestic strong gluten wheat at higher prices should be cautious.